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April Long Range Discussion


CAPE
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2 hours ago, frd said:

Who cares if there is a - AO.  Give me a + PNA. 

-AO historically has the highest correlation to above avg snow in DC. This past winter was a fail. Simply no cold air. It may be a fluke, or a sign of things to come. Imo it was mostly Nina related. I may feel differently if in the next few years, we have a moderate Nino and predominant -AO/NAO winter, and end up with below average snow.

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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

-AO historically has the highest correlation to above avg snow in DC. This past winter was a fail. Simply no cold air. It may be a fluke, or a sign of things to come. Imo it was mostly Nina related. I may feel differently if in the next few years, we have a moderate Nino and predominant -AO/NAO winter, and end up with below average snow.

It wasn’t a good pattern for cold. The entire Arctic was pretty much cut off. 
 

I know lack of cold was an issue for many but not everywhere. I think there was a time in late Feb where we had had only one all rain event since New Years. Some included no snow but did have some type of frozen.  Only 5 times did we manage to hit a tenth of precip in Jan and finished almost all 1” below normal. 

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28 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It wasn’t a good pattern for cold. The entire Arctic was pretty much cut off. 
 

I know lack of cold was an issue for many but not everywhere. I think there was a time in late Feb where we had had only one all rain event since New Years. Some included no snow but did have some type of frozen.  Only 5 times did we manage to hit a tenth of precip in Jan and finished almost all 1” below normal. 

I'm willing to take my chances with a negative AO any year.

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44 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It wasn’t a good pattern for cold. The entire Arctic was pretty much cut off. 
 

I know lack of cold was an issue for many but not everywhere. I think there was a time in late Feb where we had had only one all rain event since New Years. Some included no snow but did have some type of frozen.  Only 5 times did we manage to hit a tenth of precip in Jan and finished almost all 1” below normal. 

This here...so is this something to blame for the -AO not working? I kept hearing some of you mention the cold air "being on the other side of the globe"). What I'm trying to figure out is whether this was fluky or not (let's hope it was fluke and not climate)

(Apologies if this has been discussed already--I'm just coming back in here...took a break for Lent!)

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The Pac jet was the primary culprit, blasting mild air into our source region. Something we have seen quite a bit over recent winters, and seems to be somewhat overwhelming the typical patterns associated with the ENSO state . Not sure I am totally sold on that yet as a new normal.

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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

The Pac jet was the primary culprit, blasting mild air into our source region. Something we have seen quite a bit over recent winters, and seems to be somewhat overwhelming the typical patterns associated with the ENSO state . Not sure I am totally sold on that yet as a new normal.

This. -EPO is still our most important factor wrt cold in the East (and quite frankly the CONUS as a whole), and from what I tell, Alaska being in a pretty significant cold spell since Mid Jan is a pretty good indicator that we will not have all that much cold available in the East. Just my $0.02. 

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19 hours ago, frd said:

Who cares if there is a - AO.  Give me a + PNA. 

I was going to say, in this global pattern yeah.. -AO can be pretty dry too. Even in Strong El Nino you would think STJ, but we might see something like 97-98 or 01-02 honestly. I think right now everything is pretty weak.. I would say Moderate El Nino/-QBO next winter would be interesting but it's week in the face of everything lol (Stratosphere warming could probably turn the PNA+ briefly)

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Sounds great. :yikes:

Mount Holly AFD-

The long term period will be characterized by a long duration onshore flow due to the positioning of the high to our north and low to our south. Given the onshore flow and the likelihood of clouds and/or precipitation cooler temperatures are expected with Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s (with even cooler temperatures likely near the immediate coast).

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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Sounds great. :yikes:

Mount Holly AFD-

The long term period will be characterized by a long duration onshore flow due to the positioning of the high to our north and low to our south. Given the onshore flow and the likelihood of clouds and/or precipitation cooler temperatures are expected with Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s (with even cooler temperatures likely near the immediate coast).

While not idea, the LR seems void of both unusually cold and warm weather. That’s a plus, IMO. If we can make it to May without any crazy heat, sign me up. 

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16 hours ago, CAPE said:

Sounds great. :yikes:

Mount Holly AFD-

The long term period will be characterized by a long duration onshore flow due to the positioning of the high to our north and low to our south. Given the onshore flow and the likelihood of clouds and/or precipitation cooler temperatures are expected with Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s (with even cooler temperatures likely near the immediate coast).

Yeah, I was afraid of this general look/forecast. Fortunately this week is playing out ok so far but by end of week/weekend and next week it may just be that damp and dreary type of pattern. Hopefully not

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Just now, Baltimorewx said:

Yeah, I was afraid of this general look/forecast. Fortunately this week is playing out ok so far but by end of week/weekend and next week it may just be that damp and dreary type of pattern. Hopefully not

Timing looks bad. I have some outside projects I started and was hoping for a nice weekend.

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2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

He hit 2 Homers on opening day in 1990 . I was there.  And he hit 1 more in the next 2,000 at bats lol. Our  dad took my brother and I  to so many O's games between roughly 82- 91 at Memorial Stadium.  Probably 300 or so. Back then low income peeps like me could actually go to games regularly and my dirt poor friends could even afford to go occasionally.  Nowadays to take your family of 4 is like a $200 spot minimum.  Ravens game more like a $400 spot :yikes:

I still think going to a baseball game is reasonable...Yeah if you're gonna splurge on all of the concessions then you will rack it up quick. But tickets you can still get for like $10-20...or you could before covid anyway. I still think its alright when you compare it to other things like the aquarium, zoo, amusement park. Hell even the movies....now football games, yes outrageous, especially the popular games/teams but part of it is because theres only 8 home games. Not 81...

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Sorry @nj2va... from the morning LWX AFD

As we continue into the beginning and middle portions of next week,
conditions still appear to remain unsettled with most cloudy skies
likely and chances for periodic showers. Guidance shows temperatures
remaining near climatological norms throughout the long term.
However, given the pattern, would not be surprised if temperatures
actually verify cooler.

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