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Winter 2021-2022


40/70 Benchmark
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9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

One final round of strengthening does not bother me in the slightest. I would be more concerned if it were becoming a modoki and remaining the same intensity. A marked drop that is relegated to the eastern zones is a recipe for a relatively fruitful la nina season for east coast winter enthusiasts.

I will go to the grave swearing that Jan 2011 would not have been so epic if la nina were weaker....strong east based la nina and modoki el nino events are rare birds, and it's why seasons like 2010-2011, 1955-1956, 2002-2003 and 2009-10 are so exceptional. It's about the location of the forcing, and if it is well placed, then you want it to be a very prominent hemispheric driver. 

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36 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

To demonstrate what a worthless waste of time it is to post weeklies past 15 days:

 

New NOV 30

Screenshot_20211115-152856_Chrome.thumb.jpg.2675d3cd6cc011b8c4dbc79a37b02659.jpg

 

 

Old NOV 30

Screenshot_20211115-152835_Chrome.thumb.jpg.2055b91a1bd9b1295efbf3fb293962a4.jpg

 

This is a splendid illustration of the value of researching a winter outlook and formulating your own ideology with respect to the evolution of the season...you don't lose your mind waffling with seasonal guidance.

You win some and lose some, but the losses are very educational.

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is a splendid illustration of the value of researching a winter outlook and formulating your own ideology with respect to the evolution of the season...you don't lose your mind waffling with seasonal guidance.

You win some and lose some, but the losses are very educational.

Is 1950-1951 an analog for you? This is the first year since 50-51 with no major tropical cyclones after September 26th globally. 

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25 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Is 1950-1951 an analog for you? This is the first year since 50-51 with no major tropical cyclones after September 26th globally. 

I didn't really look at it because it wasn't technically a la nina, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it doesn't have some value as a potential analog. I also don't really factor tropical activity in much...its an after thought.

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18 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Is 1950-1951 an analog for you? This is the first year since 50-51 with no major tropical cyclones after September 26th globally. 

December was colder than average… rest of the winter was mild…Snowfall in nyc in 1950-51 was way below average…coldest temp and biggest snow was on 12/26 coinciding with the ao’s strongest negative…it was during a drier/colder time…

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23 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

To demonstrate what a worthless waste of time it is to post weeklies past 15 days:

 

New NOV 30

Screenshot_20211115-152856_Chrome.thumb.jpg.2675d3cd6cc011b8c4dbc79a37b02659.jpg

 

 

Old NOV 30

Screenshot_20211115-152835_Chrome.thumb.jpg.2055b91a1bd9b1295efbf3fb293962a4.jpg

 

Those aren’t that different.   In amplitude yes but the idea is similar to me.  Further out leads tend to dampen amplitude so it’s not surprising that d15 is more amplified vs d19.

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I've found similar things for other sites in the East. We'll see though. I was definitely pretty optimistic for something as cold as a top-five cold December nationally in the Summer for the past 30 years, but the way the pattern evolved was pretty different than those super cold years by late Summer, so I moved to warmer years.

I was evaluating snow totals compared to average through 11/15 today too for the continental US. We're way below average almost everywhere. Among my analogs, that's very similar to three of them - 1974, 2001, 2017. The other two, 1961 and 2020, had were very snowy nationally early on extremely far to the South. I gave 1974 and 2017 double weight, with the other three at one weight. So national snow patterns are mostly on track so far for me.

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83 and 75 are only in BN because of the new snow climo averages. That wouldn’t be so 10-20 years ago. Anyways to me there is not a OMG we’re doomed signal from that. Also why does it matter when the snow comes? That’s like saying we had a record warm fall, but mostly because of October. It all gets counted no matter when it happens. 

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52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

83 and 75 are only in BN because of the new snow climo averages. That wouldn’t be so 10-20 years ago. Anyways to me there is not a OMG we’re doomed signal from that. Also why does it matter when the snow comes? That’s like saying we had a record warm fall, but mostly because of October. It all gets counted no matter when it happens. 

I know....I was thinking the same thing...I can see that more for like 1997 or 1982 with individual, freak spring blizzards.

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18 hours ago, uncle W said:

December was colder than average… rest of the winter was mild…Snowfall in nyc in 1950-51 was way below average…coldest temp and biggest snow was on 12/26 coinciding with the ao’s strongest negative…it was during a drier/colder time…

Mild, wet and 118th of 128 winters for snowfall up here.  Like last winter only wetter.  No thanks.

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://www.wcvb.com/article/winter-weather-outlook-boston-massachusetts-area-2021-2022/38258335

Sounds a lot like my forecast, though I maybe a bit cooler in December and milder in January.

He has 50" for Boston, I think I had 45-55".

Judah is horrific. Has he ever verified anything? Not sure he’s even a met 

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