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Winter 2021-2022


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6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

 

 

Winter influence is what I was referenced.

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean

However, four of the five international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate the monthly IOD value for November will be within the neutral range, with the remaining model sitting just at the threshold value (i.e. −0.4 °C). A return to neutral weekly IOD values is anticipated in the coming weeks. This is consistent with the typical life cycle of an IOD event, which sees events dissipate in late spring or early summer with the arrival of the Australian monsoon. When the monsoon trough shifts south over the tropical Indian Ocean, it changes wind patterns and prevents an IOD event from forming. This is why IOD events are unable to form (and therefore influence Australian climate) during December to April.

Ok yeah I get what you're saying but I guess the point I was trying to make was there have been a few months during Dec-Apr where IOD was negative and has had some influence on downstream impacts via enhanced Walker Circulation. Obviously what transpires in the IO will have certain amount of time lag before its influence is felt over the Pacific but like mentioned before I think this is an area of research that can be explored more. IO is such a huge driver of our summer weather I would think there is at least some influence (big or not) it has on winter weather, more than what we currently know. There was some research done back in 2015 I think that correlated summer/fall IOD phase to proceeding ENSO phase with 8-14 month lead time. Results weren't entirely accurate but r-values were sound. It didn't pan out this year when referencing last but I believe the year before it did I would have to go back and look. Just shows how "new" all this is.

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Just now, EasternLI said:

From what I've read, the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific Warm Pool are two areas under increased scrutiny in recent years, and continues to be. Mostly because of projected warming in that part of the world. Most of the research done previously did not look into possible global ramifications only local ones. The following recent paper, for example, attributes the +NAO of winter 19-20 to the very strong IOD of that fall. 

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/asl.1005

I haven't read this article but just goes to show how much more there is to learn. Thanks for the link!

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11 hours ago, uncle W said:

1970-71 was a dud from February on in NYC but great north and west...I remember seeing on the news about roofs collapsing in Port Jervis NY from heavy wet snow...the city got cold rain...1970-71 is one of those years that had snow on Christmas day and New Years day...1975-76 did it too...Boston got some heavy snow before Christmas 1975...

Off of your response I looked up the annual snowfall records for NYC. It's amazing how much more snow NYC has gotten this century as compared to the past.

 

 

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2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Off of your response I looked up the annual snowfall records for NYC. It's amazing how much more snow NYC has gotten this century as compared to the past.

 

 

I don’t think that’s true at all!  Growing up, 30 year normal snow was 30ish at NYC and it’s nearly 20% less now I think.

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

I don’t think that’s true at all!  Growing up, 30 year normal snow was 30ish at NYC and it’s nearly 20% less now I think.

I don’t think NYC ever averaged that much. Maybe the late 1800s? 

 

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I'm not sure about 30 year averages, but according to xmacis2, NYC averaged about 32" in the 50 year period between 1870 and 1920. I think the difference is that much of that was made up of 4-8," 6-10" types of events with KUs being less common. Obviously it was also much colder then.

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6 hours ago, weathafella said:

I don’t think that’s true at all!  Growing up, 30 year normal snow was 30ish at NYC and it’s nearly 20% less now I think.

NYC average rose from 27 In the 80s to about 30 now. Perhaps much earlier in the century it was more.

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11 hours ago, It's Always Sunny said:

I think the IO is one of the most underplayed influences in long range forecasting. Meteorologically still more to be discovered but it is a known driver of the NPAC jet which obviously has downstream impacts. 

I think so too. Maybe it doesn’t have a strong correlation to a specific region or area but if you’re looking to study long range and teleconnections you need to have an understanding of impacts on the global level…but just local b/c at the end of the day the global scale impacts the local scale 

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13 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

NYC average rose from 27 In the 80s to about 30 now. Perhaps much earlier in the century it was more.

NYC decade snow averages...
decade.......................Oct.....Nov.....Dec.....Jan.....Feb.....Mar.....Apr.....total

1870-71 to 1879-80......0.1.....0.9.....6.7......9.7......8.8.....4.1......1.6.....31.9
1880-81 to 1889-90........0......1.8.....7.1......8.8......7.6.....6.8......0.7.....32.8
1890-91 to 1899-00........0......3.3.....4.3......8.7....10.6.....7.1......0.8.....34.8
1900-01 to 1909-10........0......0.3.....6.2......9.1......9.2.....4.8......0.6.....30.2
1910-11 to 1919-20........0......0.2.....7.5......4.8......9.5.....8.3......2.3.....32.6
1920-21 to 1929-30......0.1.....0.1.....4.2......8.5....10.1.....2.2......0.9.....26.1
1930-31 to 1939-40........T......2.2.....4.3......6.4......8.5.....3.5......0.8.....25.7
1940-41 to 1949-50........T......0.6.....9.1......7.4......8.6.....4.8......1.1.....31.6
1950-51 to 1959-60......0.1.....0.5.....4.7......5.2......3.4.....8.0......0.8.....22.7
1960-61 to 1969-70........T......0.3.....7.4......7.7....10.6.....4.6......0.1.....30.7
1970-71 to 1979-80........T......0.3.....1.7......7.3......9.5.....2.4......0.1.....21.3
1980-81 to 1989-90........0......0.6.....2.1......7.8......5.3.....2.9......1.1.....19.8
1990-91 to 1999-00........0......0.3.....2.9......6.9......9.1.....5.4......0.2.....24.8
2000-01 to 2009-10........T........T......7.8......6.5....13.3.....3.5......0.4.....31.5
2010-11 to 2019-20......0.3.....1.1.....4.4....12.9......8.1.....6.0......0.6..33.4


1870-71 to 2009-10........T......0.8.....5.4......7.5......8.9.....4.9......0.8.....28.3
 

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30 minutes ago, uncle W said:

NYC decade snow averages...
decade.......................Oct.....Nov.....Dec.....Jan.....Feb.....Mar.....Apr.....total

1870-71 to 1879-80......0.1.....0.9.....6.7......9.7......8.8.....4.1......1.6.....31.9
1880-81 to 1889-90........0......1.8.....7.1......8.8......7.6.....6.8......0.7.....32.8
1890-91 to 1899-00........0......3.3.....4.3......8.7....10.6.....7.1......0.8.....34.8
1900-01 to 1909-10........0......0.3.....6.2......9.1......9.2.....4.8......0.6.....30.2
1910-11 to 1919-20........0......0.2.....7.5......4.8......9.5.....8.3......2.3.....32.6
1920-21 to 1929-30......0.1.....0.1.....4.2......8.5....10.1.....2.2......0.9.....26.1
1930-31 to 1939-40........T......2.2.....4.3......6.4......8.5.....3.5......0.8.....25.7
1940-41 to 1949-50........T......0.6.....9.1......7.4......8.6.....4.8......1.1.....31.6
1950-51 to 1959-60......0.1.....0.5.....4.7......5.2......3.4.....8.0......0.8.....22.7
1960-61 to 1969-70........T......0.3.....7.4......7.7....10.6.....4.6......0.1.....30.7
1970-71 to 1979-80........T......0.3.....1.7......7.3......9.5.....2.4......0.1.....21.3
1980-81 to 1989-90........0......0.6.....2.1......7.8......5.3.....2.9......1.1.....19.8
1990-91 to 1999-00........0......0.3.....2.9......6.9......9.1.....5.4......0.2.....24.8
2000-01 to 2009-10........T........T......7.8......6.5....13.3.....3.5......0.4.....31.5
2010-11 to 2019-20......0.3.....1.1.....4.4....12.9......8.1.....6.0......0.6..33.4


1870-71 to 2009-10........T......0.8.....5.4......7.5......8.9.....4.9......0.8.....28.3
 

This is awesome thanks!

I feel like the biggest difference is snow retention. Was watching old home movies from the 40s and my dad stated "we always had a white Christmas, you don't see that anymore", yet our snowfall averages are about the same. Of course in each home movie on Christmas day they had the year carved in the snow pack.

Technically speaking of SW CT however I would imagine same general idea with a few more inches.

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33 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is awesome thanks!

I feel like the biggest difference is snow retention. Was watching old home movies from the 40s and my dad stated "we always had a white Christmas, you don't see that anymore", yet our snowfall averages are about the same. Of course in each home movie on Christmas day they had the year carved in the snow pack.

Technically speaking of SW CT however I would imagine same general idea with a few more inches.

from 1959-1963 NYC had at least an inch on the ground for Christmas...then in 1966 there was a Christmas snowstorm...

1961...snow ends near midnight Christmas eve with 6-10" on the ground...

Showing Image 14100 (nycsubway.org)

1963...6-8" fell 12/23 and ends early 12/24...That evening another half inch fell after dark...

 

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1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is awesome thanks!

I feel like the biggest difference is snow retention. Was watching old home movies from the 40s and my dad stated "we always had a white Christmas, you don't see that anymore", yet our snowfall averages are about the same. Of course in each home movie on Christmas day they had the year carved in the snow pack.

Technically speaking of SW CT however I would imagine same general idea with a few more inches.

That's the confidence rattler when surveying 'anecdotal climatology' 

Those accounts are based on visual memories, ... which are invariably going to be milled through at least some amount of ( personal bias + the imagination )/2.  No human being can really store information on mental engrams, when all incoming information is molded by endearing nostalgia.  LOL   

After the "fact" ... even in the best possible objective personal recollection source, that person lives for < 100 years. Usually not much more than 80.  That's not an altogether very dense sample set.  In a stable climate, you can have 20 or 30 year variance that faux suggested Dec's are bigger snowers... Followed by multi-decade spans that ( eventually...) normalize back to a 300-year mean ..etc.   Anecdotal experience are inherently limited as all ...

Muddling matters further ... the climate is not stable now.  

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1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is awesome thanks!

I feel like the biggest difference is snow retention. Was watching old home movies from the 40s and my dad stated "we always had a white Christmas, you don't see that anymore", yet our snowfall averages are about the same. Of course in each home movie on Christmas day they had the year carved in the snow pack.

Technically speaking of SW CT however I would imagine same general idea with a few more inches.

Ironically, NYC went their 2nd longest white christmas drought on record between 1931-1944....14 consecutive years without a white Xmas. Only the 16 consecutive years between 1967-1982 was longer.

 

Their current drought is 11 years (2010-2020).

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this is what I compiled for NYC white Christmas's...

1876.....1"

1880.....1-2".....

1883...12"+......5" 12/25

1884.....3".......3" 12/24

1892.....trace...

1896.....1-2".....

1902.......6.5" 12/25...

1904.....T-1".....3" 12/25...

1908.....trace........

1912.....11".........11.4" 12/24
1914.....trace........0.6" 12/24.....0.4" 12/21...
1917.......4"..........9.6" 12/12-14.....0.2" 12/17.....
1919.......3"..........2.8" 12/24-25.....1.9" 12/19.....2.1" 12/16-17
1924.....trace.......0.8" 12/24-25
1925.....trace.......0.2" 12/24-25
1929.......1"..........1.4" 12/23
1930.......2"..........3.9" 12/23-24...
1935.....trace.......0.4" 12/23.....0.4" 12/20.....1.6" 12/25-26
1945.......7"..........8.1" 12/19-20...3.2" 12/14...0.6" 12/10...rain Christmas night...
1947.......1"..........2.5" 12/23...26" 12/26...
1948.......5"........16.0" 12/19-20
1955......trace.......2.7" 12/22
1959.......4"........13.7" 12/21-22
1960.......1"........15.2" 12/11-12.....1.3" 12/19
1961.......6"..........6.2" 12/23-24
1962......trace.......2.7" 12/21-22......0.3" 12/25...rain Christmas night...
1963.......6"..........6.6" 12/23-24......1.4" 12/18.....2.3" 12/12
1966.......7"..........7.1" 12/24-25......1.2" 12/21
1967......trace.......1.0" 12/23....rain Christmas night...
1970......trace.......2.1" 12/21-23
1975......trace.......1.8" 12/22...0.5" 12/25...Rain Christmas night...
1980......trace.......1.0" 12/24...0.6" 12/23
1983.......1"..........1.0" 12/23-24
1993......trace.......trace 12/24-25
1995.......4"..........7.7" 12/19-20...0.5" 12/16...1.7" 12/14...1.5" 12/9...
1998.......1"..........2.0" 12/23-24
2000......trace.......0.7" 12/20
2002......trace.......trace 12/25...5" 12/25 after morning rain...
2009.......2"........10.9" 12/19-20....rain Christmas night...

trace is less than 0.5"...

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NYC never had heavy snow falling Christmas morning at 7am...maybe 1902 which had a storm that started before dawn Christmas day...in my life time snow never fell Christmas morning...it either stopped before dawn or started after lunch...

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49 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

White Christmas is nearly a lock here based on historical stats but the grinch storm was so bad it still has me spooked. 

That was an all-timer. Really the only other comparable one in the past 30 years was Jan 1996...you might be able to throw December 17, 2000 in there too.

You'll have a White Xmas up there this year.

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