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Winter 2021-2022


40/70 Benchmark
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I’m just glad the polar vortex is expected to be weak. The timing of a severe polar vortex disruption can be figured out later. If it happens in January instead I would think that means our best pattern would be mid Jan to mid Feb. Hopefully the polar vortex is farther east than last year when the severe polar vortex event caused it to intrude into the west instead.

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16 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The problem is none of the models are showing the warming/disruption downwelling into the lower stratosphere or into the troposphere:  

 

Bingo!

That propagation/'down-welling' mass displacement is left out of this stuff, waaaay too often.  So often, I don't believe a lot of these sources really have read or researched the science involved in the total circuitry of events of SSWs that correlate suggestively in forcing AO mode change.  

Merely warming the stratosphere reads like --> -AO, from them. That's not entirely statistically demonstrated.  SO, when statements then evince that thought process, it begs the impression of false-frontiers ...like, "look at my special insight."  Our field of meteorology ...I have come to find over the years, is a collection pool for that form of narcissism - while the real deal minds are not even posting, or, are posting because they have no lives.  weird -

Where are all a the Astrophysicists launching drive-by social media statement-bombs and then walking away in awe ? lol

Cynicism/droll aside, ( sorry ..it's frustrating for a nerd to have to constantly field that) , it does just comes off as having really either a glossy impressions or knowledge, or self-promotion. 

What I am about to say is hypothesis, and may be wrong - so as not to be couched in that same irresponsible antic ...  These warming product depictions, I wonder if they are a by-product of climate change, where finally warming has began more frequently observably pushing into the mid and upper troposphere invading/bleeding thermally into those altitudes/latitudes.

We saw something suspiciously similar to this last year, too.. And what made it particularly difficult was that we did have an SSW, but it was late in the season.. And since the more non-propagated general form of warming took place early on ...this obscured the difference between which was which.  The AO spent time both negative and positive during the warmth earlier in the winter, too -

I think it's really more indicative of CC showing up in that specific niche, simply put. 

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

These warming product depictions, I wonder if they are a by-product of climate change, where finally warming has began more frequently observably pushing into the mid and upper troposphere invading/bleeding thermally into those altitudes/latitudes.

Are we talking about the troposphere or stratosphere?   Correct me if I am wrong, but I thought AGW theory argues for a colder stratosphere?

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32 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Are we talking about the troposphere or stratosphere?   Correct me if I am wrong, but I thought AGW theory argues for a colder stratosphere?

Sort of both ... Use the tropopause:  it is the amoprhous transition between the upper troposphere, and the entry into the stratosphere.  The height of that level varies between the Equator and the polar regions of the planet:   taller south, lower north.

From that basic principle, adding warmth to a warming world should do what?  

It should raise heights:  might leap out as an immediately testable conclusion.   What to look for in any such "test"  - calculate the height of the ambient tropopause at a given latitude, then, compare it to the height of the tropopause at that latitude along a decadal time span.   I bet money ... the height of the tropopause has been elevating slowly as the HC has been expanding N and the various Global circulation "machinery" is beginning to more permanently homogenize that thermal input into the Ferrel latitudes.     

But here is the thing.  That warming is only partially homogeneous - there are colder feedback mechanisms ( although they are breaking down ...scary enough) at very high latitudes. That's sort of quasi-protects those regions.  That, and, ...because they were starting at at such a low scalar pre-CC state, they have a lot of recovery room before the Equator and N/S Poles return to a pre-CC gradient. When that pre-CC gradient state is ever re-achieved, that means stress/break-point has "clicked" into a the warmer level ... (so to speak). Or perhaps the killer threshold that is mused and hinted in the general ambit. Speculation at that point that is beyond the speculation ...haha.

No, but I do think/wonder if the increasing propensity to see these early warm anomalies in the lower PV circumvallate in recent autumns are really just the recent warming - in general -  finally encroaching into those latitudes.

As far as the latter question, it may by trapping aerosol particulates ...probably because the PV wind band is on average strengthening.  That increasing velocity supplies a general lowering internally by large integral mechanics.. That can all happen well inside the stratospheric region of the PV domain, and be a separate phenomenon to what is being discussed above - which is really a smeared PV boundary argument.

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On 10/10/2021 at 2:40 PM, snowman19 said:

A member in the NYC forum posted something about this a few years ago, forget who researched it, but anyway, they found that a warmer than normal Sept and Oct were nothing to worry about and many of them lead to a cold and snowy winter. It was when all 3 months (Sept, Oct, Nov) were warmer than normal that it became a huge problem. Nearly all of them lead to warmer than normal winter with below average snowfall in NYC, it was the kiss of death. Don’t know if the same holds true up there

Another one I saw a few years ago but had a small sample size so it wasn’t trustworthy was that if the August temperature averaged warmer than July in NYC and BOS that it almost always correlated to a mild winter.  84-85 and 01-02 I recall were two of the standout cases of it but total I think only 10-12 years were in the sample so it may have been just randomness   

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10 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Another one I saw a few years ago but had a small sample size so it wasn’t trustworthy was that if the August temperature averaged warmer than July in NYC and BOS that it almost always correlated to a mild winter.  84-85 and 01-02 I recall were two of the standout cases of it but total I think only 10-12 years were in the sample so it may have been just randomness   

I did a quick check of years when August was the warmest month...I found 33 years...average snow for the 33 years is 28"...some great years snow wise were 1947, 1960 and 2009...some lousy years...2001, 1918 and 1877....

number of times...

+60".....1

+50".....2

+40".....3

+30".....7

+20"...11

+10".....6

-10"....3

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Did the same for the Farmington co-op's 129 years.  There are 27 years with August as the warmest month, including 2021.   The 26 winters following averaged 89.47" compared to the over average of 89.71" - not much to see there.

Number of times:
40s    1   (2015-16)
50s    2
60s    5
70s    2 
80s    4
90s    4
100s   1
110s   2
120s   4
130s   0
140s   1   (2000-01)

August 2021 was warmest by 4.2°, easily the largest span of the 27 warm Augusts, so winter 21-22 may be charting new ground.  Only 3 previous Augusts were warmest by more than 2°.  Year, difference and following winter:  1969/3.1°/90.4"; 2001/3.3°/80.7"; 2009/2.5°/62.4".  One average one BN, one ratter, average 77.8".   SSS but not looking great.

Even worse using my location, as August was warmest in 2001, 02, 03, 09 and 2015.  Those years averaged 65.2" compared to my overall 89.0" and included 2 BN (barely better than the -20% ratter line), 2 ratters, and 15-16 with 48.2" which doesn't even rise to ratter status.
 

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8 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Did the same for the Farmington co-op's 129 years.  There are 27 years with August as the warmest month, including 2021.   The 26 winters following averaged 89.47" compared to the over average of 89.71" - not much to see there.

Number of times:
40s    1   (2015-16)
50s    2
60s    5
70s    2 
80s    4
90s    4
100s   1
110s   2
120s   4
130s   0
140s   1   (2000-01)

August 2021 was warmest by 4.2°, easily the largest span of the 27 warm Augusts, so winter 21-22 may be charting new ground.  Only 3 previous Augusts were warmest by more than 2°.  Year, difference and following winter:  1969/3.1°/90.4"; 2001/3.3°/80.7"; 2009/2.5°/62.4".  One average one BN, one ratter, average 77.8".   SSS but not looking great.

Even worse using my location, as August was warmest in 2001, 02, 03, 09 and 2015.  Those years averaged 65.2" compared to my overall 89.0" and included 2 BN (barely better than the -20% ratter line), 2 ratters, and 15-16 with 48.2" which doesn't even rise to ratter status.
 

your bads are our goods...28" for NYC is average snowfall...

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18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Lots going on for me here in Uganda, but going to try to get things started on Sunday night. Past few days have solidified some doubt that I had. I'm feeling confident in my ideas.

First hope your having a great time with family….. have ur “ideas” changed much since you left the states? Hope your still optimistic 

 

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On 10/9/2021 at 4:30 PM, weathafella said:

A dramatic difference between this year and 2010-11 in the graphic  Steve posted is the ssta off of Newfoundland.   I forget what that is called but the late Jack, a founder of SV correlated the winter with those anomalies in May.   In any case, it’s glaringly different and MAY be signaling a ratter-not sure....great snow winter Ninas vs this year are glaring in that area.

 

 

3B253511-0F05-4D21-AB02-A5A268831087.gif

E4BA3B96-F797-4041-B20C-4EC9201B1A10.png

1E35A2A2-8CCD-4E3F-A9C3-A90818626018.gif

Update: the ssts have improved.

48E7B70E-B1A5-4EB3-925E-3802C9DA7C70.png

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Looking at the picture above, the following things stand out:

the strength of the La Niña has increased.

a cold pool is developing close to Newfoundland. It’s not in the perfect location, but is close to that Tripole look mentioned earlier, a strong indicator of North Atlantic blocking.

The pacific is still kind of bad. I hate the warm blob being that far west, that could be a sign that there will be a trough in the west at times in the winter. In 2010 it wasn’t great either but the size of that warm blob was smaller. However, the pacific does not appear to be as bad as last year. Last year had a more expansive warm blob, and pretty much the entire pacific was a furnace. This year outside of the warm blob there is colder waters surrounding it, the structure looks similar to 2010-2011 more so than last year. From what I have learned from Rays blog (easternmassweather), the structure of the La Niña favors more east coast troughing when the colder waters are displaced to the east, with a less favorable pattern and more of a trough out west when the Nina is west based. This la ninas structure actually looks a little better than 2010-2011 (though the strength is much weaker at least right now, by October 2010 the La Niña was already strong). It is a subtle shift, but the cooler waters appear to have moved east a bit as it strengthened. It’s fairly basin wide right now, we will have to see how it looks in a month as the Nina continues to strengthen, but if it maintains or moves east that’a good.

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On 10/17/2021 at 4:50 AM, George001 said:

Update: the ssts have improved.

48E7B70E-B1A5-4EB3-925E-3802C9DA7C70.png

I found that SSTs in the northern hemisphere are a product of the 500 pattern, and don’t really drive the 500 pattern. There isn’t much heat energy from the ocean with those cold temps to really force a hemispheric pattern change. Maybe it helps feedback a little.

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