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Winter 2021-2022


40/70 Benchmark
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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I actually had the PNA evolution backwards last season...I thought it would begin more hostile, and get better over the course of the season. However, I nailed it in the aggregate.

I haven't gotten around to read your post-winter analysis yet but did you address any reasonings as to why it didn't behave like you thought? 

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6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I haven't gotten around to read your post-winter analysis yet but did you address any reasonings as to why it didn't behave like you thought? 

Not explicitly, but I stated that the evolution with respect to the early season PNA was actually more redolent of el nino...this implies that it is simply due to a greater degree of variance with respect to more modest ENSO events, as Steve said.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not explicitly, but I stated that the evolution with respect to the early season PNA was actually more redolent of el nino...this implies that it is simply due to greater degree of variance with respect to more modest ENSO events, as Steve said.

Makes a ton of sense. That's also another wildcard factor that is quite difficult to assess the lag between the change in an atmospheric/oceanic state. For example, let's say we do transition to EL Nino for the winter...we could feature EL Nino conditions within the ocean but the atmosphere is still "Nina-ish". 

If we do go to EL Nino it will be interesting to see how quickly that transition occurs. Historically the transition from Nino --> NIna seems to happen much more easily than Nina ---> to El Nino but 1965, 1972, and 1976 saw such occurrences...although 76 was much more late blossoming 

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3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Makes a ton of sense. That's also another wildcard factor that is quite difficult to assess the lag between the change in an atmospheric/oceanic state. For example, let's say we do transition to EL Nino for the winter...we could feature EL Nino conditions within the ocean but the atmosphere is still "Nina-ish". 

If we do go to EL Nino it will be interesting to see how quickly that transition occurs. Historically the transition from Nino --> NIna seems to happen much more easily than Nina ---> to El Nino but 1965, 1972, and 1976 saw such occurrences...although 76 was much more late blossoming 

I don't think you have to worry about Nino anytime soon

figure4.png

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The big hints for next winter at this juncture are the periodic record WPO values, the first (net) -NAO winter in forever, and then how cold Nino 4 was in winter.

Winters after negative NAO winters tend to be cold in the eastern 2/3 of the US, but signal is weak, with a Great Basin warm signal:

Screenshot-2021-06-25-6-18-13-PM

Winters after a cold Nino 4 winter tend to be cold Southwest, WA, CA, warm east coast and south. Again, signal is weak.

Screenshot-2021-06-25-6-17-51-PM

Winters after a very positive WPO winter tend to be warm eastern 1/3 of the US and Montana.

Screenshot-2021-06-25-6-17-34-PM

Not a whole lot of -NAO, +WPO, very cold Nino 4 winter combinations either to get the transition to the 2021-22 winter.

DJF    WPO    NAO    Nino4
2020    1.40    -0.42    27.32
2008    0.91    -0.08    27.48
2000    0.44    0.04    27.46
1959    0.38    -0.91    27.70
1952    0.28    -0.20    27.93
2007    0.43    0.65    26.97

July 2009 had the prior hottest day in Seattle at 103 late month. So it's interesting to see that year pop up when the subsurface has been similar.

1959 0.38 -0.91 27.70
1959 0.38 -0.91 27.70
2008 0.91 -0.08 27.48
2007 0.43 0.65 26.97
Mean 0.52 -0.31 27.46
2020 1.4 -0.42 27.32

I actually had mentioned 1959-60 as a "C-tier analog" in the back of my outlook last Fall for the winter because I thought it would be an OK temperature match at times. It was an excellent match in December and then pretty decent in February, despite being a lousy January match. The weird years following the WPO/NAO/Nino 4 would be 1960, 1960, 2008, 2009. That blend has a spatial look somewhat resembling the first two correlation maps. But obviously it's too early for a real guess as to what winter will do. But I do think some years following the strong +WPO, -NAO, very cold Nino 4 combo will end up working for next winter, just because the three things individually (record +WPO winter, ~very cold Nino 4, most -NAO winter in ages) are rare enough even individually.

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23 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, we had two consecutive el nino events ending the season before last.

Wait, really? Those must've been rip-offs...lol I seem to remember the 2018-19 ending up being weak and never acting like a Nino. And what happened in 2019-20? I guess that was off set from the raging dragon ++++++++AO...lol But when was the last legit moderate one since 2016?

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On 6/25/2021 at 2:45 PM, Ginx snewx said:

I don't think you have to worry about Nino anytime soon

figure4.png

Nope. There goes that El Niño for winter ‘21-‘22 idea JB was peddling/wishcasting 5 months ago….that’s going down in flames

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7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Nope. There goes that El Niño for winter ‘21-‘22 idea JB was peddling/wishcasting 5 months ago….that’s going down in flames

Good, 5 months ago the way the subsurface looked it appeared like the early signs were indicating we could go mod-strong nino, which means congrats mid atlantic. It appears now the models are leaning towards a weak Nina, which is much better for winter prospects in New England than a moderate or stronger Nino. 

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

No, just pointing out that your hero is going to be dead wrong….yet again. He was so sure of a modoki El Niño for this upcoming winter…..oooops!!

A weak west based nino is ideal, but if all the models were showing that right now the risk would be that the nino strengthens more than expected and the warmer waters move east. Last year all the models were showing a weak Nina at this time, and it ended up being a high end moderate/ borderline strong Nina. Im glad the models are showing a borderline weak Nina/cold neutral right now. Weak Nina is the 2nd best Enso state+strength combination there is. With a Nina you are less likely to get a historic blizzard with 3 feet plus in all of New England (due to less southern stream), but you will have more shots at snow with an active northern stream. If the polar vortex cooperates and you can get the northern branch to dig, go negatively tilted, allowing it to tap and throw Atlantic moisture back into New England, watch out. That is a weather pattern that can and does produce multiple severe blizzards in one year, like 18+ inches with isolated 2 feet. That’s how you get 2010-2011, 1995-1996, and March 2018. Yeah the ceiling isn’t quite as high for individual storms, but you can still get a 2 ft severe blizzard with a northern stream driven Miller b in New England.

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18 hours ago, George001 said:

A weak west based nino is ideal, but if all the models were showing that right now the risk would be that the nino strengthens more than expected and the warmer waters move east. Last year all the models were showing a weak Nina at this time, and it ended up being a high end moderate/ borderline strong Nina. Im glad the models are showing a borderline weak Nina/cold neutral right now. Weak Nina is the 2nd best Enso state+strength combination there is. With a Nina you are less likely to get a historic blizzard with 3 feet plus in all of New England (due to less southern stream), but you will have more shots at snow with an active northern stream. If the polar vortex cooperates and you can get the northern branch to dig, go negatively tilted, allowing it to tap and throw Atlantic moisture back into New England, watch out. That is a weather pattern that can and does produce multiple severe blizzards in one year, like 18+ inches with isolated 2 feet. That’s how you get 2010-2011, 1995-1996, and March 2018. Yeah the ceiling isn’t quite as high for individual storms, but you can still get a 2 ft severe blizzard with a northern stream driven Miller b in New England.

Image result for funny images of snow depthImage result for funny images of snow meme

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On 6/30/2021 at 1:48 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

Wait, really? Those must've been rip-offs...lol I seem to remember the 2018-19 ending up being weak and never acting like a Nino. And what happened in 2019-20? I guess that was off set from the raging dragon ++++++++AO...lol But when was the last legit moderate one since 2016?

Right, but it was still technically an el nino.

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The winter of 2018-2019 if anything acted like a super nino, wasn’t that the winter that the pacific jet went ballistic and flooded the country with mild air? The polar vortex didn’t help much but it did come down into the states at times (a bit west of ideal like this most recent winter, but it wasn’t parked over the North Pole like 2011-2012 and 2019-2020). 2018-2019 was forecasted to be an epic winter by many with multiple severe blizzards clobbering New England (understandably, since in November all the seasonal indicators looked really good), but the stronger than expected pacific jet meant we were just too warm, and meant the flow was just too fast so the northern and southern branches mostly stayed separate. Correct me if I’m wrong but isn’t the reason weak ninos are usually so good for New England snow that you get just enough pac jet influence to energize the southern branch enough to increase the ceiling on storms we get, but not quite enough to flood the country with mild air? When you combine an active southern branch with a cooperative polar vortex you get several massive blizzards slamming into New England, producing a widespread 2ft+ of snow with hurricane force winds, like in 2014-2015. Idk if I’m off base here, but for some reason that 2018-2019 winter felt like we were always really close but the lows just kept tracking a bit too far west or we were just a couple degrees too warm to get a big snowstorm, a lot of missed opportunities. Other garbage winters like 2011-2012 and 2019-2020 it felt like we never stood a chance. Honestly, the 2018-2019 pattern wasn’t even terrible even with the raging pacific jet. I feel like that type of pattern with just a slightly more favorable polar vortex as well as a slightly weaker pac jet and we could have had a big winter.

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Hi guys. I hear alot about Hadley cell expansion and when it happens, winters are tough to get real cold. My question is for who knows more than the average person about that is where is the Hadley cell located and anyway to tell if it is or will be expanding? I believe it has a profound effect on the north Pacific pattern 

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15 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Hi guys. I hear alot about Hadley cell expansion and when it happens, winters are tough to get real cold. My question is for who knows more than the average person about that is where is the Hadley cell located and anyway to tell if it is or will be expanding? I believe it has a profound effect on the north Pacific pattern 

I’m not super knowledgeable about this stuff, the Meteorologists here would be able to explain in more detail than I can. Based on what I have read though, the Hadley cell sits on both sides of the equator, up to 30N and 30S latitude, and due to climate change, the size of the Hadley cell is increasing. Right now they are predicting that the Hadley cell will expand 2 degrees of latitude on both sides, however historical climate change predictions have underestimated the increasing acceleration of the warming. Due to this it is very possible if not likely that the Hadley cell expands even more than that. If the acceleration in global warming doesn’t stop, in my opinion the Hadley cell will expand enough to engulf the whole planet. This is unlikely to happen in our lifetimes, but still a very real concern that cannot be ignored, as we don’t want to screw over future generations and humanity as a whole. In my opinion the Hadley cell expansion is responsible for the pacific jet blasting the country with mild air, leading to  areas as far north as central New England seeing 70+ degree and even 80s in mid winter. 70s and 80s in mid winter was unheard of until a decade or so ago, and it seems like we get a stretch like that at least every other year now. Climate change induced Hadley cell expansion is the most likely culprit for this. If anything I said here is inaccurate, those who are more knowledgeable about this stuff feel free to correct me.

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5 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m not super knowledgeable about this stuff, the Meteorologists here would be able to explain in more detail than I can. Based on what I have read though, the Hadley cell sits on both sides of the equator, up to 30N and 30S latitude, and due to climate change, the size of the Hadley cell is increasing. Right now they are predicting that the Hadley cell will expand 2 degrees of latitude on both sides, however historical climate change predictions have underestimated the increasing acceleration of the warming. Due to this it is very possible if not likely that the Hadley cell expands even more than that. If the acceleration in global warming doesn’t stop, in my opinion the Hadley cell will expand enough to engulf the whole planet. This is unlikely to happen in our lifetimes, but still a very real concern that cannot be ignored, as we don’t want to screw over future generations and humanity as a whole. In my opinion the Hadley cell expansion is responsible for the pacific jet blasting the country with mild air, leading to  areas as far north as central New England seeing 70+ degree and even 80s in mid winter. 70s and 80s in mid winter was unheard of until a decade or so ago, and it seems like we get a stretch like that at least every other year now. Climate change induced Hadley cell expansion is the most likely culprit for this. If anything I said here is inaccurate, those who are more knowledgeable about this stuff feel free to correct me.

It gets into the 80s in mid winter in New England every other year? 

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3 hours ago, roardog said:

It gets into the 80s in mid winter in New England every other year? 

Recently, it has. Some areas reached 80 in feb 2018, Jan 2020, and 70s in Feb 2017. Historically, 80s in New England usually would wait until late April or even well into May, but the Hadley Cell got bigger, and our climate got warmer, and the rate that temps are increasing is accelerating.

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I don’t know enough about Hadley cell expansion but why was that the cause of the well above normal temperatures on the east coast during that Nina February but didn’t hold back the brutal stretch of cold that winter from mid December to late January here in the Midwest? It just seems like so much of this stuff only works when it’s convenient. Remember when declining Arctic sea ice was causing high latitude blocking? How about Siberian snow cover advancement in Autumn determining high latitude blocking for winter? It only works when it’s convenient. I’m not saying there isn’t some truth to these ideas but i just feel like people have a tendency to simplify the atmosphere too much sometimes.

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22 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Hi guys. I hear alot about Hadley cell expansion and when it happens, winters are tough to get real cold. My question is for who knows more than the average person about that is where is the Hadley cell located and anyway to tell if it is or will be expanding? I believe it has a profound effect on the north Pacific pattern 

Paging @Typhoon Tip... Paging @Typhoon Tip... :D

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31 minutes ago, roardog said:

I don’t know enough about Hadley cell expansion but why was that the cause of the well above normal temperatures on the east coast during that Nina February but didn’t hold back the brutal stretch of cold that winter from mid December to late January here in the Midwest? It just seems like so much of this stuff only works when it’s convenient. Remember when declining Arctic sea ice was causing high latitude blocking? How about Siberian snow cover advancement in Autumn determining high latitude blocking for winter? It only works when it’s convenient. I’m not saying there isn’t some truth to these ideas but i just feel like people have a tendency to simplify the atmosphere too much sometimes.

The simplest way I can explain this in three sentences from all I've read is that expansion of the Hadley Cell causes increases in wavelengths in the atmosphere.  As wavelengths increase, so do extremes in temperatures as troughs and ridges tend to be more amplified.  Hence torch on the east coast and an icebox in the midwest.  However, my confidence in this explanation/understanding is low...

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3 hours ago, roardog said:

I don’t know enough about Hadley cell expansion but why was that the cause of the well above normal temperatures on the east coast during that Nina February but didn’t hold back the brutal stretch of cold that winter from mid December to late January here in the Midwest? It just seems like so much of this stuff only works when it’s convenient. Remember when declining Arctic sea ice was causing high latitude blocking? How about Siberian snow cover advancement in Autumn determining high latitude blocking for winter? It only works when it’s convenient. I’m not saying there isn’t some truth to these ideas but i just feel like people have a tendency to simplify the atmosphere too much sometimes.

I haven’t heard of the declining arctic sea ice causing high latitude blocking, if anything I would think low arctic sea ice is an indicator that favors a more mild winter in New England due to a weaker cold air source. The Siberian snow cover thing I do believe has a lot of truth to it, but it’s only one piece of the puzzle. In that 2018 winter we did have a brutal stretch of winter, it wasn’t a garbage winter by any means. It was a 2 week stretch that was really mild, but ended up being a snowier than average winter in the east. Someone who is more knowledgeable about this stuff would be able to explain it better in detail, but based on what I understand is the Hadley cell expansion increases the strength of the pacific jet overall, but that doesn’t mean we can’t get cold stretches, just means the mild stretches will outweigh the cold ones, and over time winters in New England will get less snowy on average. The extreme cold during that same winter occurred during a severe polar vortex intrusion into the United States, which is something that can dominate the pattern. You are right though that a lot of times people oversimplify the atmosphere. During the winter of 2019-2020 I got really excited when I heard there would be a polar vortex split because I assumed that meant New England would get hit by a barrage of severe blizzards, but then I learned what happens when the polar vortex splits to either the west coast instead of the east coast or even the other side of the globe entirely. That is when I learned that polar vortex split doesn’t necessarily mean good for snow, and can even mean the opposite. A lot of indicators that are oversimplified like that. They are still useful when used correctly though. 

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