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Winter 2021-2022


40/70 Benchmark
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21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It was kind of a bust but still a big storm. We had about 9-10 inches back in ORH. About 6" from the initial storm and then another 3" from the vortmax "backlash" the next day....then another inch or so from the wrap-around ULL snowshowers that lasted like 3 days after it got stalled up in the Maritimes.

I think the phase of the PV lobe was a little bit sloppy.

 

Loop these two:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1995/us1219.php

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1995/us1220.php

 

You can see how the sfc low kind of escapes northeast a bit before that really good vortmax in the 2nd link catches up with it. It was originally forecasted to stall or at least slow down further southwest.

 

The south shore did very well though because they were getting great OES contribution during the whole event with NE winds over the December still-mild waters. I think South Weymouth had like 20"+. But outside of the OES spots, it was a mild disappointment even though it was still a good storm in an absolute sense. It was the expectations that sort of ruined it. We had the rare "Blizzard Watch" about 36-48 hours before the storm....but never got converted to blizzard warning.

It's almost like Schweogler got screwed by that  - .because I could almost see or guess that back then the modeling tech might have plotted a more proficient meshing and capture.  That wave coming in underneath and enticing the western end of that SPV lobe to dive S, that's actually an attempt at a 'subsume phase' scenario.  And you watch out for those.   He did get screwed, because albeit a decent event as you say ... the failure to really do so took a B .. B+ storm out of the mouth of an A+ monster

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21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It was kind of a bust but still a big storm. We had about 9-10 inches back in ORH. About 6" from the initial storm and then another 3" from the vortmax "backlash" the next day....then another inch or so from the wrap-around ULL snowshowers that lasted like 3 days after it got stalled up in the Maritimes.

I think the phase of the PV lobe was a little bit sloppy.

 

Loop these two:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1995/us1219.php

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1995/us1220.php

 

You can see how the sfc low kind of escapes northeast a bit before that really good vortmax in the 2nd link catches up with it. It was originally forecasted to stall or at least slow down further southwest.

 

The south shore did very well though because they were getting great OES contribution during the whole event with NE winds over the December still-mild waters. I think South Weymouth had like 20"+. But outside of the OES spots, it was a mild disappointment even though it was still a good storm in an absolute sense. It was the expectations that sort of ruined it. We had the rare "Blizzard Watch" about 36-48 hours before the storm....but never got converted to blizzard warning.

Yeah..I remember looking out that morning near dawn and being like holy shit. We didn't get 20", but I remember thinking that was more than I expected.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That 20th nor'easter, Dec 20 '95 was an amazing set up really.   I wonder what the snow totals were on this thing...

Here's the set up; note the 19th:  https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1995/19951218-19951224.pdf

Famartin, Philly region met has a great resource. You can see every 95-96 storm here… here was Dec 20 95’ snowmap. He has H5 maps and everything

 

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18 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

It was kind of a bust but still a big storm. We had about 9-10 inches back in ORH. About 6" from the initial storm and then another 3" from the vortmax "backlash" the next day....then another inch or so from the wrap-around ULL snowshowers that lasted like 3 days after it got stalled up in the Maritimes.

I think the phase of the PV lobe was a little bit sloppy.

 

Loop these two:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1995/us1219.php

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1995/us1220.php

 

You can see how the sfc low kind of escapes northeast a bit before that really good vortmax in the 2nd link catches up with it. It was originally forecasted to stall or at least slow down further southwest.

 

The south shore did very well though because they were getting great OES contribution during the whole event with NE winds over the December still-mild waters. I think South Weymouth had like 20"+. But outside of the OES spots, it was a mild disappointment even though it was still a good storm in an absolute sense. It was the expectations that sort of ruined it. We had the rare "Blizzard Watch" about 36-48 hours before the storm....but never got converted to blizzard warning.

One of the few relative disappointments that season.

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17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

One of the few relative disappointments that season.

Yes...seems like 80% of the storms overachieved. Only other pseudo-disappointment that season was 2/16/96....where that band rotated into the berskhires and dryslotted a bunch of us. But even that storm was ofrecasted to be a whiff like 3 days out, so it was great that we were even getting one.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes...seems like 80% of the storms overachieved. Only other pseudo-disappointment that season was 2/16/96....where that band rotated into the berskhires and dryslotted a bunch of us. But even that storm was ofrecasted to be a whiff like 3 days out, so it was great that we were even getting one.

That storm pissed me off. I remember watching the radar show that band rotting and just sputtering bands to the east.

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That storm pissed me off. I remember watching the radar show that band rotting and just sputtering bands to the east.

Yeah and the storm wasn't even a hugger....really bizarre how so much of SNE got dryslotted. Like you look at the upper air and it doesn't look remotely like that type of storm.

I remmeber the south shore got stuck an OES band during that dryslot though and I was jealous of them. A few places got like 12-14" on the south shore while outside the band had like 7-8".

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

That storm pissed me off. I remember watching the radar show that band rotting and just sputtering bands to the east.

The expectations were so high but it was muted in the results.   So while nearly everyone got 6-12, expecting 18+ essentially ruined it. I also remember an obscene nao which actually brought in North Atlantic puke keeping temperatures in the 40s a few days after Christmas.   Once that relaxed some we got in on the January blizzard and surprise aftermath a few days later.   Then we had heavy snow to rain and a full melt until the pattern reloaded.   But initially we weren’t sure if a reload was coming.

 

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16 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The expectations were so high but it was muted in the results.   So while nearly everyone got 6-12, expecting 18+ essentially ruined it. I also remember an obscene nao which actually brought in North Atlantic puke keeping temperatures in the 40s a few days after Christmas.   Once that relaxed some we got in on the January blizzard and surprise aftermath a few days later.   Then we had heavy snow to rain and a full melt until the pattern reloaded.   But initially we weren’t sure if a reload was coming.

 

Don't forget the big storm right before the blizzard. Jan 3-4, 1996....12"+ for a pretty solid area....basically north of a PVD-BDL line (sleet issues to the south).

Frigid airmass at the surface in that one. The vortex behind that storm is what set the stage for the pre-blizzard airmass which was even colder. (even DC spent much of the '96 blizzard in the teens)

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1996/us0103.php

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1996/us0104.php

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Don't forget the big storm right before the blizzard. Jan 3-4, 1996....12"+ for a pretty solid area....basically north of a PVD-BDL line (sleet issues to the south).

Frigid airmass at the surface in that one. The vortex behind that storm is what set the stage for the pre-blizzard airmass which was even colder. (even DC spent much of the '96 blizzard in the teens)

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1996/us0103.php

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1996/us0104.php

 

 

 

I remember having about a 13" snowpack heading into the blizzard.

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Don't forget the big storm right before the blizzard. Jan 3-4, 1996....12"+ for a pretty solid area....basically north of a PVD-BDL line (sleet issues to the south).

Frigid airmass at the surface in that one. The vortex behind that storm is what set the stage for the pre-blizzard airmass which was even colder. (even DC spent much of the '96 blizzard in the teens)

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1996/us0103.php

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1996/us0104.php

 

 

 

I remember xcountry skiing in the arboretum on a deep pack right before the blizzard.  I was still a concerned about losing the storm to the south and I was not yet on line so I drove around in lowering overcast to check the weathervanes around town.  That was a Sunday and temperatures were in the upper teens mid day.    Monday with the storm still raging I got the good news that sleet was mixing in as far north as Braintree but it quickly got beaten back.  I had to get to work-a 2 hour T ride ending at government center and me walking the mile to causeway street.  This lady was really furious that the T was stopping at government center and was pounding on the driver window.  What a melt.  Good times!

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3 hours ago, uncle W said:

on the evening 0f 2/16/1996 I was listening to oldies and they were playing the songs from 2/16/1958...The 2/16/1996 storm went on to break the daily snowfall record set in 1958...That's not the only time that has happened to me...

That phenomenon was helped by NYC reporting oddly low snowfall for the 1958 storm, 5.9" on 2/16 and 7.9" total, with temps/LE making significant p-type issues a low probability.  EWR had 13.3", PHL 13.0", BDL 11.6", inland NJ 16-21", BOS 19.4".  (Trivia: That was my 2nd of 7 storms 18-24" 3/56 thru 2/61.  Never since experienced such a flock of huge storms, though we had 5 events 15.5-21.0" from 12/16 thru 3/18, 6 if the start point is 1/15.)

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4 hours ago, tamarack said:

That phenomenon was helped by NYC reporting oddly low snowfall for the 1958 storm, 5.9" on 2/16 and 7.9" total, with temps/LE making significant p-type issues a low probability.  EWR had 13.3", PHL 13.0", BDL 11.6", inland NJ 16-21", BOS 19.4".  (Trivia: That was my 2nd of 7 storms 18-24" 3/56 thru 2/61.  Never since experienced such a flock of huge storms, though we had 5 events 15.5-21.0" from 12/16 thru 3/18, 6 if the start point is 1/15.)

It was also one of the all time greats in the Poconos with a band of 30-40" in NE PA.

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6 hours ago, tamarack said:

That phenomenon was helped by NYC reporting oddly low snowfall for the 1958 storm, 5.9" on 2/16 and 7.9" total, with temps/LE making significant p-type issues a low probability.  EWR had 13.3", PHL 13.0", BDL 11.6", inland NJ 16-21", BOS 19.4".  (Trivia: That was my 2nd of 7 storms 18-24" 3/56 thru 2/61.  Never since experienced such a flock of huge storms, though we had 5 events 15.5-21.0" from 12/16 thru 3/18, 6 if the start point is 1/15.)

Brooklyn got 9" in Feb 1958 and LGA 10.1"...NYC was on the low side for the Jan 1961 storm...most got a foot but NYC 9.9"...

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12 hours ago, uncle W said:

Brooklyn got 9" in Feb 1958 and LGA 10.1"...NYC was on the low side for the Jan 1961 storm...most got a foot but NYC 9.9"...

EWR 13.7", and Paterson 17.5", Midland Park 20" (10 and 15 miles NW of Central Park, respectively.  Feb 3-4 was bigger but similar - 17.4" NYC, 22.6" EWR, 22.7" Paterson.  (MidPk missing)

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On 9/12/2021 at 8:24 AM, tamarack said:

EWR 13.7", and Paterson 17.5", Midland Park 20" (10 and 15 miles NW of Central Park, respectively.  Feb 3-4 was bigger but similar - 17.4" NYC, 22.6" EWR, 22.7" Paterson.  (MidPk missing)

2/3/61 may be the heaviest synoptic snow I’ve ever seen.   You could actually see it pile up on top of the antecedent deep pack.

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We've all got our run-ins with absurdo-turbo-snow rates.

Three in my life.   Two are tied, and one is a short 2nd behind.  

In both 1997 Dec 23, and 2005 Dec 10, I witnessed 7 inches in one hour.  Both those occurrence were also book-ended by a couple of hours of 3 or even 4"/ hr rates, but ... once you've suffocated in a 7" hour it almost seems like 3 is light snow. Whole 'nother world when approaching the coveted 5 per hour rates.

The other time was early February 1986 ( '87 ?...for some reason I can never remember the date on this one ).  5.5" in one hour fell in dead air,  also book-ended by 2 or 3"/hrs, before a coastal finally kicked-in a CCB that put the final nail in the forecast coffin that it would warm up.  This one had lightning and thunder ...  I was skiing Nashoba Valley over here in Littleton when that first 2" snow-hour abruptly swept over the mountain and suddenly ... 1 mile become 50 feet visibility.  20 minutes later they closed the slopes because a double-flit pulse of blue light preceding seismic chest thumping booms - uh...yeah, get people off the lift towers, now!  There were several thunder claps over that 5+" hour.  That was a fascinating storm. One of those storm-memories that never fades.  Totaled close to a foot off a forecast for 1 to 2" then light rain and mix.  I hold this one as close to heart as the other two above - even though it's in 2nd place total-wise it shares the ceremony.  This thing came on utterly out of nowhere ...  To go from almost an ignorable weather forecast windshield wiper expectation, to a traffic-grid failing, deep winter storm realization is pretty f'n awesome. My father said that Rt 2 there at Arlington Heights ..the big climb up the hill out of Cambridge ...was a parking lot of cars fish-tailing but not actually making much headway up the hill.  Somehow his pick-up made.  Earlier that afternoon, ..around 1:30 ... the temperature was like 21 F when the snow started with those insidious tiny uniform aggregates of plates and micro dendrites.  Like the menacing needle eyed hurricane.  Small sometimes means BIG! I remember standing there in front the window as Algebra 2 was gathering when the teacher sided up next to me.  I said, "It just looks cold."   She says, "I don't think this is turning to rain" .... heh, good call. 

I just don't know if these kind of bust can even happen anymore ...although 2005 was not terribly forecast to be fair. But obviously, it too over produced in drama ...what with 110 mph trop. folding p-wave winds straifing the Cape while Metro West was blinded by snow  falling at 50 dbz thundesrtorm rate... It was still totally AWEsome!   Anyway, as much as we like to make fun, it does seem the bigger gapped busts are getting rarer, because the models may be just good enough.

After these.. I've seen 4" an hour probably more than a dozen times in my life. I've seen in it Lake Effect in western Michigan but ..that's technically meso.  I think there is a steep probability curve at that mass, perhaps. Like it gets into that realm where excessive outputs are, perhaps counter-intuitively, relying upon such fragile constructs or something that they too often fail to set up and you have to "settle" for 4 -

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45 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

We've all got our run-ins with absurdo-turbo-snow rates.

Three in my life.   Two are tied, and one is a short 2nd behind.  

In both 1997 Dec 23, and 2005 Dec 10, I witnessed 7 inches in one hour.  Both those occurrence were also book-ended by a couple of hours of 3 or even 4"/ hr rates, but ... once you've suffocated in a 7" hour it almost seems like 3 is light snow. Whole 'nother world when approaching the coveted 5 per hour rates.

The other time was early February 1986 ( '87 ?...for some reason I can never remember the date on this one ).  5.5" in one hour fell in dead air,  also book-ended by 2 or 3"/hrs, before a coastal finally kicked-in a CCB that put the final nail in the forecast coffin that it would warm up.  This one had lightning and thunder ...  I was skiing Nashoba Valley over here in Littleton when that first 2" snow-hour abruptly swept over the mountain and suddenly ... 1 mile become 50 feet visibility.  20 minutes later they closed the slopes because a double-flit pulse of blue light preceding seismic chest thumping booms - uh...yeah, get people off the lift towers, now!  There were several thunder claps over that 5+" hour.  That was a fascinating storm. One of those storm-memories that never fades.  Totaled close to a foot off a forecast for 1 to 2" then light rain and mix.  I hold this one as close to heart as the other two above - even though it's in 2nd place total-wise it shares the ceremony.  This thing came on utterly out of nowhere ...  To go from almost an ignorable weather forecast windshield wiper expectation, to a traffic-grid failing, deep winter storm realization is pretty f'n awesome. My father said that Rt 2 there at Arlington Heights ..the big climb up the hill out of Cambridge ...was a parking lot of cars fish-tailing but not actually making much headway up the hill.  Somehow his pick-up made.  Earlier that afternoon, ..around 1:30 ... the temperature was like 21 F when the snow started with those insidious tiny uniform aggregates of plates and micro dendrites.  Like the menacing needle eyed hurricane.  Small sometimes means BIG! I remember standing there in front the window as Algebra 2 was gathering when the teacher sided up next to me.  I said, "It just looks cold."   She says, "I don't think this is turning to rain" .... heh, good call. 

I just don't know if these kind of bust can even happen anymore ...although 2005 was not terribly forecast to be fair. But obviously, it too over produced in drama ...what with 110 mph trop. folding p-wave winds straifing the Cape while Metro West was blinded by snow  falling at 50 dbz thundesrtorm rate... It was still totally AWEsome!   Anyway, as much as we like to make fun, it does seem the bigger gapped busts are getting rarer, because the models may be just good enough.

After these.. I've seen 4" an hour probably more than a dozen times in my life. I've seen in it Lake Effect in western Michigan but ..that's technically meso.  I think there is a steep probability curve at that mass, perhaps. Like it gets into that realm where excessive outputs are, perhaps counter-intuitively, relying upon such fragile constructs or something that they too often fail to set up and you have to "settle" for 4 -

May have been Jan 30, 1987....there aren't any storms that fit your description in early Feb '86 or '87. But Jan 30th is certainly close enough that it may have been that date.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1987/us0130.php

 

 

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3 hours ago, weathafella said:

2/3/61 may be the heaviest synoptic snow I’ve ever seen.   You could actually see it pile up on top of the antecedent deep pack.

It certainly brought most NNJ stations to their deepest pack on record, generally by a foot or more.  My guess for our place in NNJ is 45" but my only "measure" was my friend and I thinking we could wade thru it the 2000 feet to the nearby reservoir.  Sinking in past our navels (with plenty of dense snow still underfoot), we made it about 100 yards before common sense returned.  At the time I was 5'8" and he was an inch taller.
I've yet to observe 4"/hr snowfall except perhaps for 15 minutes in a Fort Kent snowsquall.  Tops for siggy length is the 9" in 2:45 (10 PM-12:45 AM) from the dump of 24.5" on2/22-23/2009.  Reading about the 4/5/6" rates makes me wonder if I'm a bit too far north/inland to connect with those death bands.

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

It certainly brought most NNJ stations to their deepest pack on record, generally by a foot or more.  My guess for our place in NNJ is 45" but my only "measure" was my friend and I thinking we could wade thru it the 2000 feet to the nearby reservoir.  Sinking in past our navels (with plenty of dense snow still underfoot), we made it about 100 yards before common sense returned.  At the time I was 5'8" and he was an inch taller.
I've yet to observe 4"/hr snowfall except perhaps for 15 minutes in a Fort Kent snowsquall.  Tops for siggy length is the 9" in 2:45 (10 PM-12:45 AM) from the dump of 24.5" on2/22-23/2009.  Reading about the 4/5/6" rates makes me wonder if I'm a bit too far north/inland to connect with those death bands.

Did the 2/5/01 band hit you? I remember it extending all the way into interior Maine. 

What about 12/29/16? I think the latter was more south of you though in the lakes region from Bridgton to Naples to Raymond, etc. 

I would probably agree that areas like Farmington would be slightly too far inland and north to get the frequency of 3-4”+ per hour rates that occur further south. The synoptic sweet spot for those is prob like a Bridgton to ORH axis and roughly 30 miles each side. Obviously mesoscale areas like upslope have their own enhanced frequencies.

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I honestly think the March 2019 event might challenge most of what I’ve ever witnessed. I’m ashamed to admit that I never measured it hourly (mostly because my wife was pissed I woke people up in the first place at 3am,) but it had to be 5”+ for that one hour. I mean without a doubt. It was literally choking flakes. And not the foo foo fluff crap, I mean pure man flakes. Most of my snow fell in like 2.5 hrs. I couldn’t believe how fast it stacked up at 31.8F. The other time (and I was driving to work in it) was the famous Cantore TSSN orgasm in Plymouth on 2/15/15. I was on the expressway heading north in Quincy and I was literally blinded by the snow rates. I actually had to pull to the right and follow the guardrail to see where the road was turning because I became disoriented in the middle of the road lol. It was an unreal experience. I remember the lights added to the whole disorientation because everything was a soft orange. It’s like there was so much snow falling it all reflected into the air as a uniform orange glow. Incredible. 

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19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I honestly think the March 2019 event might challenge most of what I’ve ever witnessed. I’m ashamed to admit that I never measured it hourly (mostly because my wife was pissed I woke people up in the first place at 3am,) but it had to be 5”+ for that one hour. I mean without a doubt. It was literally choking flakes. And not the foo foo fluff crap, I mean pure man flakes. Most of my snow fell in like 2.5 hrs. I couldn’t believe how fast it stacked up at 31.8F. The other time (and I was driving to work in it) was the famous Cantore TSSN orgasm in Plymouth on 2/15/15. I was on the expressway heading north in Quincy and I was literally blinded by the snow rates. I actually had to pull to the right and follow the guardrail to see where the road was turning because I became disoriented in the middle of the road lol. It was an unreal experience. I remember the lights added to the whole disorientation because everything was a soft orange. It’s like there was so much snow falling it all reflected into the air as a uniform orange glow. Incredible. 

2/15/15. It was incredible.

deathband2015.jpg

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Just now, 512high said:

what a year , and I has some serious drifts 

 

Seriously. The perspective is tricky in that picture because I shot it from the top of the stairs entering my apartment, but the drift at the bottom was a good six or seven feet tall and probably ten feet wide. And that was what was left after the backhoes had come down and cleared to widen the street a few times.

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4 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Seriously. The perspective is tricky in that picture because I shot it from the top of the stairs entering my apartment, but the drift at the bottom was a good six or seven feet tall and probably ten feet wide. And that was what was left after the backhoes had come down and cleared to widen the street a few times.

Yup, and all last year I was excited with a possibility of a 1-3” event……lol

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