Winter 2021-2022

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

JB…..ROTFLMFAOO!!!! Last winter he was hyping that we would be in a Modoki El Niño right now lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

JB…..ROTFLMFAOO!!!! Last winter he was hyping that we would be in a Modoki El Niño right now lol

Why do you feel so threatened by anything that potentially supports wintery outcomes? Bit more confidence in a Canadian warming at 2-3:weeks lead than ENSO state at 8-9 months lead.

[snowman19]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Why do you feel so threatened by anything that potentially supports wintery outcomes? Bit more confidence in a Canadian warming at 2-3:weeks lead than ENSO state at 8-9 months lead.

Not threatened at all. JB is a clown, this is the same guy who was using 02-03, 09-10, 57-58 as “analogs” for the 15-16 super El Niño with region 3.4 at +3.1C and calling for epic cold and snow

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Not threatened at all. JB is a clown, this is the same guy who was using 02-03, 09-10, 57-58 as “analogs” for the 15-16 super El Niño with region 3.4 at +3.1C and calling for epic cold and snow

Well NYC and Mid Atlantic did get and an Epic Historic Blizzard that winter despite the Raging Nino…and many places including NYC and many areas of SNE did set all time record cold sub zero lows on Valentine’s Day that same season just a month later…while surrounded by warmth otherwise. So it had its standouts. 

[sebastiaan1973]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The Springer article is much better...more extensive. That is the piece that I use.

You mean this one Different types of La Niña events and different responses of the tropical atmosphere | SpringerLink right?

[tamarack]

4 hours ago, J.Spin said:

Are the snowfall numbers applied in this analysis for the entire season, or for only the post-November portion of the season?  I think we’ve talked about it before in the NNE thread, but one has to be more careful in correlating November data with winter up north, or it can just become a self-fulfilling hypothesis/comparison.  November farther north, and especially in the mountains, isn’t quite the potentially uncorrelated/insignificant “pre-season” that it might be in areas to the south; in much of NNE you’re essentially “in-season” by that point.  With November being at the edge of the season the way it is, above average temperatures are going to have a strong correlation with little to now snowfall.  Average November snowfall at our site is almost 10% of the seasonal snowfall, so it’s not the minor/insignificant percentage represented by October snowfall.  If you cut out 10% of a season’s snowfall through warm Novembers, then indeed, even if all else is equal for the rest of the season, one would expect those seasons with warm Novembers to average less overall snowfall.  I’m not sure what % of Farmington’s average snowfall comes in November, but if the comparison is to full season snowfall, it would probably alter the threshold for significance vs. the assumption that the November temperatures and season’s snowfall have the possibility of being entirely independent.

Back to the numbers I go (tomorrow).  
November snow at Farmington is 5-6% of the total, so the self-fulfilling potential might be less, but I'll check.

[DavisStraight]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Why do you feel so threatened by anything that potentially supports wintery outcomes? Bit more confidence in a Canadian warming at 2-3:weeks lead than ENSO state at 8-9 months lead.

Are you thinking early cold and snow this year?

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

You mean this one Different types of La Niña events and different responses of the tropical atmosphere | SpringerLink right?

No, but similar to that...its linked in my outlook last year.

I'll take a look at that, though.

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Are you thinking early cold and snow this year?

Possible...you'll find out soon enough.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Not threatened at all. JB is a clown, this is the same guy who was using 02-03, 09-10, 57-58 as “analogs” for the 15-16 super El Niño with region 3.4 at +3.1C and calling for epic cold and snow

Why do you keep deflecting the issue? This isn't about JB, or the 2015 el nino...an early season warming is a completely viable possibility.

[CoastalWx]

8 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Well NYC and Mid Atlantic did get and an Epic Historic Blizzard that winter despite the Raging Nino…and many places including NYC and many areas of SNE did set all time record cold sub zero lows on Valentine’s Day that same season just a month later…while surrounded by warmth otherwise. So it had its standouts. 

15-16 was a furnace winter with a rogue storm. It was snowier than what we normally expect though in a strong Nino, but an extremely warm winter.

[George001]

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Not threatened at all. JB is a clown, this is the same guy who was using 02-03, 09-10, 57-58 as “analogs” for the 15-16 super El Niño with region 3.4 at +3.1C and calling for epic cold and snow

09-10 was a fairly strong nino. I am very critical of Joe for his views on climate change, 09-10 actually ended up being a decent analog for the 2016 winter (both winters sucked up in New England, great in the mid Atlantic). I don’t consider either  09-10 or 15-16 to be snowy or cold winters at all, so Joe wasn’t entirely off base there. That said, this winter there will be no El Niño. It is more likely that I die tomorrow from a giant meteor strike than it is of an El Niño developing for the winter. La Niña is increasing in strength, and is already up to weak territory. It is around -.7 right now in the enso 3.4 region, and the strength of the La Niña will only continue increasing with the subsurface being even colder than last years at this time. I could be wrong here but I do believe the surface will catch up, and it will catch up fast. In my opinion, the La Niña will not be weak. The CFSV2 is forecasting the La Niña to peak at nearly -2 in the Enso 3.4 region, which is borderline super Nina territory. This is likely overdone, but other models have increased the strength of the La Niña as well. Euro moved from weak to moderate, NMME moved from moderate to strong. I am actually thinking that it is more likely that the La Niña peaks at strong than it is for La Niña to stay weak with how things have progressed recently. High end moderate/low end strong is where I am leaning, a middle ground between the cfsv2 and less aggressive guidance like the euro.

[weathafella]

26 minutes ago, George001 said:

09-10 was a fairly strong nino. I am very critical of Joe for his views on climate change, 09-10 actually ended up being a decent analog for the 2016 winter (both winters sucked up in New England, great in the mid Atlantic). I don’t consider either  09-10 or 15-16 to be snowy or cold winters at all, so Joe wasn’t entirely off base there. That said, this winter there will be no El Niño. It is more likely that I die tomorrow from a giant meteor strike than it is of an El Niño developing for the winter. La Niña is increasing in strength, and is already up to weak territory. It is around -.7 right now in the enso 3.4 region, and the strength of the La Niña will only continue increasing with the subsurface being even colder than last years at this time. I could be wrong here but I do believe the surface will catch up, and it will catch up fast. In my opinion, the La Niña will not be weak. The CFSV2 is forecasting the La Niña to peak at nearly -2 in the Enso 3.4 region, which is borderline super Nina territory. This is likely overdone, but other models have increased the strength of the La Niña as well. Euro moved from weak to moderate, NMME moved from moderate to strong. I am actually thinking that it is more likely that the La Niña peaks at strong than it is for La Niña to stay weak with how things have progressed recently. High end moderate/low end strong is where I am leaning, a middle ground between the cfsv2 and less aggressive guidance like the euro.

Already up to weak territory….

 

Typically these ENSO states peak in another month or 2 so it won’t be easy to go stronger than low end moderate.

[George001]

12 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Already up to weak territory….

 

Typically these ENSO states peak in another month or 2 so it won’t be easy to go stronger than low end moderate.

The next month will be very telling, as the cfsv2 is forecasting a rapid strengthening over the next month, bringing the Nina from weak now to strong by early November, and then peaking in December as a borderline super Nina at -1.9. 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, George001 said:

The next month will be very telling, as the cfsv2 is forecasting a rapid strengthening over the next month, bringing the Nina from weak now to strong by early November, and then peaking in December as a borderline super Nina at -1.9. 

Sell

[George001]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Sell

How strong do you think the Nina will get looking at the latest trends? I do think that is overdone, but it is telling that the models aren’t backing down at all and are getting even more aggressive with increasing the strength of the La Niña with the latest forecasts. I’m thinking around -1.6 or so for the peak right now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, George001 said:

The next month will be very telling, as the cfsv2 is forecasting a rapid strengthening over the next month, bringing the Nina from weak now to strong by early November, and then peaking in December as a borderline super Nina at -1.9. 

The CFS is on crack...complete BS. Low end mod is ceiling here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This la nina will certainly be weaker than last year's.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

15-16 was a furnace winter with a rogue storm. It was snowier than what we normally expect though in a strong Nino, but an extremely warm winter.

I was all over that mid ATL blizzard in the seasonal call.

[ORH_wxman]

7 hours ago, George001 said:

09-10 was a fairly strong nino. I am very critical of Joe for his views on climate change, 09-10 actually ended up being a decent analog for the 2016 winter (both winters sucked up in New England, great in the mid Atlantic). I don’t consider either  09-10 or 15-16 to be snowy or cold winters at all, so Joe wasn’t entirely off base there. That said, this winter there will be no El Niño. It is more likely that I die tomorrow from a giant meteor strike than it is of an El Niño developing for the winter. La Niña is increasing in strength, and is already up to weak territory. It is around -.7 right now in the enso 3.4 region, and the strength of the La Niña will only continue increasing with the subsurface being even colder than last years at this time. I could be wrong here but I do believe the surface will catch up, and it will catch up fast. In my opinion, the La Niña will not be weak. The CFSV2 is forecasting the La Niña to peak at nearly -2 in the Enso 3.4 region, which is borderline super Nina territory. This is likely overdone, but other models have increased the strength of the La Niña as well. Euro moved from weak to moderate, NMME moved from moderate to strong. I am actually thinking that it is more likely that the La Niña peaks at strong than it is for La Niña to stay weak with how things have progressed recently. High end moderate/low end strong is where I am leaning, a middle ground between the cfsv2 and less aggressive guidance like the euro.

The 2009-2010 and 2015-2016 winters were not alike at all. 2009-2010 was cold across most of the conus including into the mid-Atlantic and southeast...even if where we were was a bit above normal. It was a lot snowier than 2015-2016 too across most of New England. 

The patterns were completely different. 

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

The 2009-2010 and 2015-2016 winters were not alike at all. 2009-2010 was cold across most of the conus including into the mid-Atlantic and southeast...even if where we were was a bit above normal. It was a lot snowier than 2015-2016 too across most of New England. 

The patterns were completely different. 

Oye, I didn't even read this part. "09-10 actually ended up being a decent analog for the 2016 winter (both winters sucked up in New England, great in the mid Atlantic). "   

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Oye, I didn't even read this part. "09-10 actually ended up being a decent analog for the 2016 winter (both winters sucked up in New England, great in the mid Atlantic). "   

 

I always skip his long winded dribble,  so I hadn't even seen that. What an abysmal post.

[WinterWolf]

9 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

15-16 was a furnace winter with a rogue storm. It was snowier than what we normally expect though in a strong Nino, but an extremely warm winter.

Oh it sure was a furnace…I agree.  But That rogue Storm for the mid Atlantic and NYC was a monstrosity blockbuster, and one for the ages…and all they needed to hit above average snowfall.  And then there was the record breaking cold snap that Valentine’s Day weekend, so my point to snowman19 was that yes it was a raging Nino and a sea of warmth, and a lousy winter overall, especially for SNE,  but it had its standouts that’s for sure.   

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Oh it sure was a furnace…I agree.  But That rogue Storm for the mid Atlantic and NYC was a monstrosity blockbuster, and one for the ages…and all they needed to hit above average snowfall.  And then there was the record breaking cold snap that Valentine’s Day weekend, so my point to snowman19 was that yes it was a raging Nino and a sea of warmth, and a lousy winter overall, especially for SNE,  but it had its standouts that’s for sure.   

The reason that winter had some redeemable moments is because it wasn't severely east-based, like most super el nino events...it was basin wide.

[tamarack]

21 hours ago, J.Spin said:

Are the snowfall numbers applied in this analysis for the entire season, or for only the post-November portion of the season?  I think we’ve talked about it before in the NNE thread, but one has to be more careful in correlating November data with winter up north, or it can just become a self-fulfilling hypothesis/comparison.  November farther north, and especially in the mountains, isn’t quite the potentially uncorrelated/insignificant “pre-season” that it might be in areas to the south; in much of NNE you’re essentially “in-season” by that point.  With November being at the edge of the season the way it is, above average temperatures are going to have a strong correlation with little to no snowfall.  Average November snowfall at our site is almost 10% of the seasonal snowfall, so it’s not the minor/insignificant percentage represented by October snowfall.  If you cut out 10% of a season’s snowfall through warm Novembers, then indeed, even if all else is equal for the rest of the season, one would expect those seasons with warm Novembers to average less overall snowfall.  I’m not sure what % of Farmington’s average snowfall comes in November, but if the comparison is to full season snowfall, it would probably alter the threshold for significance vs. the assumption that the November temperatures and season’s snowfall have the possibility of being entirely independent.

Went back to the data and saw that AN Novembers averaged 4.7" snowfall while all Novembers ran 6.8".  That  adjustment raises AN-Novie winters from 93% of average to 95%.  Those AN November years had October snow averaging 0.8", compared to all-October's 0.7", which would put Dec-May snowfall at 77.9" for AN-November years and 82.2" for all years.

[J.Spin]

27 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Went back to the data and saw that AN Novembers averaged 4.7" snowfall while all Novembers ran 6.8".  That  adjustment raises AN-Novie winters from 93% of average to 95%.  Those AN November years had October snow averaging 0.8", compared to all-October's 0.7", which would put Dec-May snowfall at 77.9" for AN-November years and 82.2" for all years.

Very cool Tamarack, thanks for running that analysis.  I’m immediately surprised that the snowfall difference between Novembers with above normal temperatures, and all Novembers is only 2.1” of snow.  With November temperatures being somewhat marginal, I would have thought those above average temperature Novembers would be a collection of more obvious clunkers.  I guess all it takes is probably a colder snap or two with some snowfall to get some accumulations down, even if the overall month comes out on the positive side for temperatures.

[George001]

6 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

The 2009-2010 and 2015-2016 winters were not alike at all. 2009-2010 was cold across most of the conus including into the mid-Atlantic and southeast...even if where we were was a bit above normal. It was a lot snowier than 2015-2016 too across most of New England. 

The patterns were completely different. 

I stand corrected. I don’t remember 2009-2010 being quite cold here but I was just thinking both were warm and lacked snow in my backyard, both strong ninos, ect. I thought 2009-2010 was only snowy in the mid Atlantic and not New England. That 2009-2010 winter really pissed me off because everything kept missing to the south so I am admittedly a bit biased. Do you guys think that maybe the 2009-2010 pattern wasn’t bad but we just got unlucky? 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, George001 said:

I stand corrected. I don’t remember 2009-2010 being quite cold here but I was just thinking both were warm and lacked snow in my backyard, both strong ninos, ect. I thought 2009-2010 was only snowy in the mid Atlantic and not New England. That 2009-2010 winter really pissed me off because everything kept missing to the south so I am admittedly a bit biased.

2009-2010 wasn't "Cold" here...it was slightly above average. But 2015-2016 was an absolute furnace. '09-'10 was cold though over a large portion of the country that does not include New England. December 2009 was quite cold.

Like for ORH, December was about -1.5 departure, January was almost dead average, and Feb was +2 so it averages out to a pinch above normal but 2015-2016 was +12 (all time warmest December), +2.5, and +3.5....which makes the entire winter 6 degrees warmer than 2009-2010.

[George001]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

2009-2010 wasn't "Cold" here...it was slightly above average. But 2015-2016 was an absolute furnace. '09-'10 was cold though over a large portion of the country that does not include New England. December 2009 was quite cold.

Like for ORH, December was about -1.5 departure, January was almost dead average, and Feb was +2 so it averages out to a pinch above normal but 2015-2016 was +12 (all time warmest December), +2.5, and +3.5....which makes the entire winter 6 degrees warmer than 2009-2010.

Yeah that’s a huge difference. 12 degrees above average for December is insane. The 2015-2016 winter was horrible with the super nino. Fortunately this winter we won’t have anywhere near a strong El Niño. 

[tamarack]

3 hours ago, J.Spin said:

Very cool Tamarack, thanks for running that analysis.  I’m immediately surprised that the snowfall difference between Novembers with above normal temperatures, and all Novembers is only 2.1” of snow.  With November temperatures being somewhat marginal, I would have thought those above average temperature Novembers would be a collection of more obvious clunkers.  I guess all it takes is probably a colder snap or two with some snowfall to get some accumulations down, even if the overall month comes out on the positive side for temperatures.

Given my lesser November snow, 2.1" is significant.  Out of 128 Novembers at the co-op, there's both Nov. temps and Nov. snow in 124, and the AN/BN split is right down the middle.  (It's a bit surprising that they're equal, given the sample size.)  So if AN Novembers run 4.7" and the total average is 6.8", the BN Novembers must average 8.9", nearly twice the ANs.