Spring/Summer 2021 Medium/Long Range Forecast Discussion.

[PowellVolz]

The Euro Weeklies are hinting at developing dry with possible drought conditions developing through the next 6 weeks.  The spigot, after several years of good rains, is off.  TBD on when it returns.  Thinking this might be the beginning of a very dry time frame measuring in months if not years - but THAT is getting far to ahead of myself.

Need a dislike button


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[nrgjeff]

Every weekly product has been a debacle for about a month now. I would not worry about the upcoming 7-10 days. Huge Mid South Ridge is probably drier than even a SER; however, it looks transient. 

Return to +GLAAM would punt that ridge as forecast. Might stubbornly linger as SER, but eventually get beat down.

If we repeat last year, with highest 500 mb anomalies North summer, the door opens here on the soft underbelly of such a ridge. Fire hose is off, but I think normal rain in June. Perhaps most of summer.

Should I water now? Probably. On the other hand May heat is not like July heat. Might let the lawn endure some tough love. Shrubs remain in excellent shape.

[Carvers Gap]

On 5/18/2021 at 6:49 AM, 1234snow said:

Just curious question here. Are the weeklies showing a lot of heat to go along with the dryness? Those two seem to go together in summer.

Weeklies almost always look warm to me.  Glad to read Jeff's comments above.  I just don't like seeing these ridges lock in place.  Often seems like modeling will try to break them down (think -NAO this past winter) too quickly.  My yard will be fried after next week.  No rain and lots of heat.  I always consider it an ominous sign to be watering my garden during spring.  Rarely turns out well(in terms of moisture) during the following summer.  We are long overdue for an extended period of dry weather.

[Carvers Gap]

Hasn't rained here since May 12th.  1.80" BN for the month.   Things can get quite dry in TRI quite quickly with even the slightest downsloping winds.  Had a day recently where we watered the garden in the AM, and it was suffering by that afternoon.  Looks like Friday is a good chance for rain.   We need it.  That Bermuda high is just parked on some modeling.  The 12z EPS is BN for precip even with that event on Friday.   Read where Cosgrove noted the Bermuda high may slide a little eastward around mid-July and that should provide return flow for the SE.  It would also allow for a weakness between a high out West and that Bermuda high.  The only downside is that this would also provide a realistic path for hurricanes to track into Gulf States then as well.  Again, I am not a huge fan of watering my garden this early.  During many years when that occurs, we play catch-up all summer.  Now, we don't want hot and humid at the same time.  Temps this week have actually been tolerable.  Think John noted in the obs thread that humidity levels are allowing for comfortable overnight temps.  

[Carvers Gap]

Looks like the rainless streak ends tomorrow.  Also, looks like @nrgjeff is going to nail the upcoming pattern - no surprise.  He is a LR guru(and short and mid-range guru as well).  The Euro Weeklies look much improved in terms of precip.  

[nrgjeff]

Thank you @Carvers Gap but I have a little help from an energy weather subscription. Focus is temps, but of course I look at precip. And glean info for severe, hehe!

Lawn has barely survived my tough love regimen. If rain fails or under achieves today I'll have to water. Looks like more rain later next week, but that'd be too long a wait.

Due to a kid recital this week I did not make it to the Plains. I would have busted in Kansas anyway, and been livid about missing the Nebraska tornado fest. So it all worked out.

Marginal risk local today. Can we get an Upper Plateau Surprise? What about Sand Mountain, Alabama? Both are very unlikely, but I'm bored and need to talk about something. It'll take an elevated area with a little greater low level wind field.

Finally the actual thread topic, Mid Range looks like no early heat waves. ECMWF weeklies are quite mild. American weeklies are hotter. I'd split the middle around normal temps. Long as the ridging stays North, we should get back into a normal rainfall regime. 

[PowellVolz]

Thank you [mention=769]Carvers Gap[/mention] but I have a little help from an energy weather subscription. Focus is temps, but of course I look at precip. And glean info for severe, hehe!
Lawn has barely survived my tough love regimen. If rain fails or under achieves today I'll have to water. Looks like more rain later next week, but that'd be too long a wait.
Due to a kid recital this week I did not make it to the Plains. I would have busted in Kansas anyway, and been livid about missing the Nebraska tornado fest. So it all worked out.
Marginal risk local today. Can we get an Upper Plateau Surprise? What about Sand Mountain, Alabama? Both are very unlikely, but I'm bored and need to talk about something. It'll take an elevated area with a little greater low level wind field.
Finally the actual thread topic, Mid Range looks like no early heat waves. ECMWF weeklies are quite mild. American weeklies are hotter. I'd split the middle around normal temps. Long as the ridging stays North, we should get back into a normal rainfall regime. 

We had a very strong storm roll through north Knoxville. 40-50mph winds and lots of branches down.


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[Carvers Gap]

Some nice rain here yesterday.  Temps have been very tolerable given early summer.  Looks like that continues through much of this week.

[nrgjeff]

Long as we can keep the 500 mb ridge parked North, adequate rainfall should continue in our region. However it's sooo humid! I know, it's June in Tennessee.

Possibility of a true cool front next week including lower humidity. That'd be an excellent mid-June break.

[John1122]

I'm 1000 percent in support of lower humidity. The air sweats it's so humid. The entire week it's been 85% or higher and often 100%. It's 94 percent as I type this.

[Carvers Gap]

Yeah, the humidity out there is nuts.  Went for a run, and it looked like someone had dumped a gatorade cooler over me once I had finished.  I have run on days in the low 90s, and been more comfortable.  Whew!  

[PowellVolz]

Looks like next week will be beautiful.


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[John1122]

Thought it might be a day without rain today, I was wrong. Looks like more tomorrow then it will finally dry out for a few days. 

[PowellVolz]

Thought it might be a day without rain today, I was wrong. Looks like more tomorrow then it will finally dry out for a few days. 

Going to the lake today so I’m guaranteeing it will rain.


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[Carvers Gap]

@Blue Moon, new forecasts(for each month) should begin to roll tomorrow with the CANSIPS being first and the Euro a few days later.

Whew, been like a hair dryer in NE TN for the past couple of days.  Steady winds and hot temps.  It is drying everything out.  Crazy that we are actually under a flash flood watch tomorrow!!!  Need some rain big time here.  We have been flirting with "abnormally dry" on the drought monitor for about a month(off and on).  Everyone east of 81 got a great dousing of water a couple of days.  Nada IMBY.  

[PowellVolz]

[mention=17716]Blue Moon[/mention], new forecasts(for each month) should begin to roll tomorrow with the CANSIPS being first and the Euro a few days later.
Whew, been like a hair dryer in NE TN for the past couple of days.  Steady winds and hot temps.  It is drying everything out.  Crazy that we are actually under a flash flood watch tomorrow!!!  Need some rain big time here.  We have been flirting with "abnormally dry" on the drought monitor for about a month(off and on).  Everyone east of 81 got a great dousing of water a couple of days.  Nada IMBY.  

Those cells that rolled through Knoxville dropped 2.77” at my house. That was the first “summer storm” we have had in a month. Lawn was looking rough.


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[John1122]

It's rained every day this week here and it's coming down heavily now. Crazy how much difference being closer to the mountains is from its rain shadow. 

[nrgjeff]

I think more of the same the next 2-4 weeks. Now we have kind of settled into the summer pattern. AN heights and AN temps favor the North. Pac NW has made headlines. Northeast US quietly stacked up a hotter than normal June too.

Down South it's normal heights and normal temps. Rain is hit and miss per the season. TVA had AN rainfall and normal runoff in June. Saturday night local thunderstorm saves my yard. Somehow we blanked with the Thursday night front, haha.

Looks like lovely weather the next few days. Everyone have a Happy Fourth of July weekend!

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GFS in the front range of the Rockies is torch city with some temps approaching 110F+ in the medium range.  Man, I hope that is not coming this way.  Yikes.  

[Carvers Gap]

Since it is kind of a boring wx pattern, though we might discuss the heat in Mountain West and the absolute scorcher that is likely to come to pass.  They have already begun to close rivers.  Oddly, they had a good snowpack in many places(Wyoming Range), but the water content was very low.  Other places had to depend on a wet spring there for additional moisture(to add to deficits).  Now, couple low water with hot temps....bout to get bad out there.  

Looks warm here in the TRI with temps in the low to mid 90s for the next several days.  It is going to be HOT!!!

[nrgjeff]

At the very least, hang out in the Central / West regional forum. They have some good content when they have weather.

Northeast Tenn has gotten hosed as the rest of us got rain. 

Smoke has arrived in some areas north of I-40. Forecast is for it to sink south with the front. This is a rare case where I'd rather not have the front get here (KCHA) mid-summer, but it will before washing out. Looks hot and smoky up on I-40. Down here our dews are higher, but the sky is still a lovely blue for at least the rest of today. HRRR smokes southern Tennessee on Thursday.

Medium Range next week looks like some Southern summer. Little hotter than normal, but we've seen worse. Could go into week 3, but there is some debate in the ensembles. Minority cluster turns milder week 3. Majority is at least seasonably hot though.

[PowellVolz]

Where’s the MCS’s been this year? We usually see a few of these a year.


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[Windspeed]

Potential heavy rain into next weekend through the Tennessee Valley thanks to redevelopment of TC Fred. Don't want too much too fast but some places sure need a prolonged soaker.

[John1122]

This thunderstorm rolling across is going to put down 1.5+ inches and probably did from Knox northward. So those totals may actually verify higher.  

[PowellVolz]

This thunderstorm rolling across is going to put down 1.5+ inches and probably did from Knox northward. So those totals may actually verify higher.  

I got around an inch and that storm was only on me for 30 min or so. East and south Knoxville had those storms for well over an hour. Reports of several roads under water in downtown Knoxville


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[PowellVolz]

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[Windspeed]

Update to to upcoming weekly totals per Sunday 12z GFS:

[PowellVolz]

Update to to upcoming weekly totals per Sunday 12z GFS:

Wow


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[Windspeed]

Wow


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Yeah that's a wide swath of 4"+ totals for a large portion of the eastern valley and higher terrain. Most likely flooding is going to be an issue now.

[PowellVolz]

Yeah that's a wide swath of 4"+ totals for a large portion of the eastern valley and higher terrain. Most likely flooding is going to be an issue now.

Picked up an inch yesterday and just now. The lightning has been really wild.




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