Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

2021 Atlantic Hurricane season


 Share

Recommended Posts

First (00z/27) GEFS sign of something significant in the Atlantic Basin.  Just two members with a closed low near 60W, advancing nwwd.  It's a start. Might be a tad early? but it's better than nothing - if you're looking for TC's in the Atlantic. The WAR via GEFS modeling is westward building beginning the middle of next week and more consistently, Aug 10 and beyond. Don't know for sure. Your's to flesh out via tropical signals. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Apropos to William Gray's famous bell that he would ring on Aug 20 marking the rapid uptick in climatological activity... here is a look at how common hurricanes are in the MDR in the first two-thirds of Aug. The short answer - they are surprisingly uncommon and not a good indicator of seasonal activity!
 

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Understood regarding 8/10 uptick too soon...  so the following will probably mean the GEFS is outlier and not reliable.  fwiw...

12z/27 GEFS continues warming above normal 500MB heights ~Aug 5 ne USA and gets it going good by the 10th.  Also continues two members of a TC beginning 8/10 and advances to near 70W off the E coast.  Two members is few and considered outlier, so this may be premature for the Atlantic Basin, as briefly discussed in early MJO/K Wave posts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites





... whether we as humans are still around to witness it.


Well, we could make it until 2068 but there's really strong indications that we have less than a dozen years left.... but I suspect the whatever years that remain will have lots of destruction.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

57 minutes ago, mempho said:


 

 


Well, we could make it until 2068 but there's really strong indications that we have less than a dozen years left.... but I suspect the whatever years that remain will have lots of destruction.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

 

Can you share some of those sources?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

45 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

First signs of a signal coming from euro...

Not that I am chomping at the bit, but I am chomping at the bit.

Yea I know, so inappropriate, so irresponsible, so reckless and careless, but I can't help it. I am storm sick.

Still think a very late season with few names, but strong ones that do get there.

I have outdoor tickets for Dead & Company and Rolling Stones in Tampa in October which normally would be a cool quiet weather time for outdoor shows. Hoping no Tropical systems on those dates...really looking forward to both shows.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just for fun, how far do you think we'll get in August?

I say Ida (EYE-duh) is in September and being an "I (eye)" storm will be the one to watch this season.

So for me, Henri will be the last August storm and I am not real confident we'll get that in the next month. I may be very wrong of course.

I don't even know if I want to watch a "Hurricane Sam", unless it hits Wyoming...

That Outlaw, Yosemite Sam – Once upon a screen…

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Every year I watch and watch. Even slow years.

I have my doubts about this year and have since Spring. Watching, always.

Low numbers, late season, and intense when it does happen. Hopefully all off the coasts fun to watch with perfect eyes and not too much stress on we who live on the coasts.

Of course, that is NOT based on anything scientific at all. So possibly very wrong indeed.

I'm going back to sleep as I may need it later! :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...