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SQLN severe risk 6P-10P, then wind advisory CAA G40KT early Monday


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HRRR and 3KNAM offer a squall line of sorts in the warm sector 6P-10P, accentuating NJ s of I78 where the Significant Tornado parameter and Supercell composite indices are notably large.  This is on the tail end of of 75kt 850 sw jet over LI, just ahead of a cold front with marginal CAPE. (That 850 jet initially causes the midday deluge's in parts of our area with possible flood advisory for poor drainage flooded roads).  Should not be much hail, if any.  Max Updraft helicity 2-5KM has some swaths across much of the region.  Not saying it will happen but should at least have gusts near 40 kt with the line as per HRRR/EC gust algorithms. HRRR prior to 09z/28 has isolated G50-60KT. R# looks more permissive than for this past Fridays wind advisory event .  I think most of any severe should be NJ shore but could extend east.

Even a small chance of G40-45KT in the strong southerlies for LI, well ahead of the squall line., 

NWS OKX has a wind advisory posted for the OKX forecast area later this evening-Monday.  That should verify with scattered G40kt, especially 3AM-Noon Monday, associated with the cold core arriving (CAA) and pressure rises.  

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Picked up about .76" of rain this morning, I don't think I'll reach an inch today but we'll see. Stongest gusts so far have been in the 25-30 mph range. My anemometer is in a new spot now on the roof of my parents garage, it used to be on the roof of my aunt and uncles house, which was on the water, had no trees around, and was taller so i usually got great wind measurements there. Friday was the first test and it had a gust of 41 mph (probably wouldve had something around 50 mph at the old location) so maybe it'll beat that later

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18 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Squall line looks to be intensifying on radar as it makes it's way through western NJ. No lightning as per the radar apps.

I think this warning was issued due to strong winds as reported by spotters and/or radar indicated.  No lightning on any of my devices either.  If you you read the warning statement it does speak to high winds associated with this feature.

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Just now, Tatamy said:

I think this warning was issued due to strong winds as reported by spotters and/or radar indicated.  No lightning on any of my devices either.  If you you read the warning statement it does speak to high winds associated with this feature.

Agreed.

At 712 PM EDT, a strong gust front with heavy downpours and
  possibly a thunderstorm was located along a line extending from
  Rockaway to near Martinsville to near Levittown, moving east at 40
  mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines.

* Gust front with heavy downpours and possibly a thunderstorm will
  be near... Plainfield around 725 PM EDT.
  Summit and Millburn around 730 PM EDT.
  Orange and Clark around 735 PM EDT.
  Elizabeth and Passaic around 740 PM EDT.
  Newark and Lyndhurst around 745 PM EDT.
  Jersey City and Bayonne around 750 PM EDT.
  The Verrazano Narrows Bridge and Midtown Manhattan around 755 PM
  EDT.
  Flatbush and Coney Island around 800 PM EDT.
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Just now, Tatamy said:

I think this warning was issued due to strong winds as reported by spotters and/or radar indicated.  No lightning on any of my devices either.  If you you read the warning statement it does speak to high winds associated with this feature.

And just like that my Skyscan is detecting lightning.  It is the nature of these features that they can start producing lightning very quickly.

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