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April 2021 General Discussion


Spartman
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On 3/29/2021 at 8:48 AM, SchaumburgStormer said:
A couple midweek shitty, cold days are a lot easier to take with the first part of April looking warm. Solid Easter weekend incoming. 


Sat-Mon are the only locked mild/warm days. After that there is a lot of question.

That once wall to wall warm late March into mid April idea is a distant memory.


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5 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:


Sat-Mon are the only locked mild/warm days. After that there is a lot of question.

That once wall to wall warm late March into mid-April idea is a distant memory.


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Hmmmm...not sure how I feel about that.

On the one hand, I want no part of a return to a wintry pattern after the equinox and especially after the calendar flips to April.

OTOH, an instant flip to a baking, summerlike ridge is no good either.

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9 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

looks warmish with typical seasonal cool/ brief cold shots

At some point there will be an E-W boundary wiggling north and south.  Sucks when you're stuck on the north side by 300 miles or less.  GFS has trended more towards the euro with a weaker front, so hopefully it hangs up north of the majority of the forum.

It's weird how that zonal pattern hasn't really occurred yet this spring though.  The longwave ridges and troughs span massive range of latitude, but have at least been moving.  Wavy but progressive is nice.  Cold fronts tend to be dry up north in this kind of pattern though.  Big sprawling high's don't allow quick moisture return in their wake.

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35 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Unfortunately the lengthy stretch of warm weather has been cut back by several days on the past few Euro runs.  Looks like Mon will be the warmest day, with a run at 80 possible here.

Yeah, the big warmth only goes through Tuesday now.  However, what comes after that is still a mystery.  A few model runs have become quite cold, but others aren't too bad.  Last night's Euro never makes the connection to any cold, so Iowa never falls below 60º for highs through day ten.

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GFS continues to suggest decent thunderstorm chances for portions of the sub at times next week with 60s dews getting into southern WI/possibly far SE MN in the warm sector of a deep low over central/northern MN. Soundings look kind of muddled for severe/ :twister: potential, but at this range I'd be worried if they looked perfect now.

06Z run had an ugly eastern US stalled upper low/ Omega block developing later in the run, but that was waaaaaaaaay into fantasy range and even if it does happen, better now than May (or June).

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4 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

I cannot stop laughing watching Tigers opening day. A little chilly (63) here with full sunshine, but haha I do not miss opening day's such as these in Detroit. Just pounding Bailey's and coffee in a parking lot just to not shiver for 3 and a half hours in Comerica. 

Getting lake effect snow here. I'm sure Wrigley will also be a treat today too.

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Man if you're wanting an active severe wx pattern for April, GFS is not the outcome you want to see. Forms a massive omega block after the first week of April and persists well into mid April. Euro didn't look as blocky. Teleconnections support a more active pattern so hopefully GFS is out to lunch. 

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22 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Man if you're wanting an active severe wx pattern for April, GFS is not the outcome you want to see. Forms a massive omega block after the first week of April and persists well into mid April. Euro didn't look as blocky. Teleconnections support a more active pattern so hopefully GFS is out to lunch. 

Yeah, and like I said while an ugly look it's well out into fantasy range (and even if it does have the right idea, better April than May). Currently more focused on trying to suss out any potential with next week's system.

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On 4/1/2021 at 6:30 PM, StormChaser4Life said:
Teleconnections support a more active pattern so hopefully GFS is out to lunch. 


That’s really not the case... There is no significant forcing via teleconnections, until maybe we get into mid April.

Definitely could get into a stagnant pattern for a bit.


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43 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Yeah, and like I said while an ugly look it's well out into fantasy range (and even if it does have the right idea, better April than May). Currently more focused on trying to suss out any potential with next week's system.

GFS has gone back to the backdoor cold front BS in the long range... like the Euro.  Elevated convection with the WAA will probably happen at some point, but who knows if the real warm sector ever makes it here.

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1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Yeah, and like I said while an ugly look it's well out into fantasy range (and even if it does have the right idea, better April than May). Currently more focused on trying to suss out any potential with next week's system.

 

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:


That’s really not the case... There is no significant forcing via teleconnection, until maybe we get into mid April.

Definitely could get into a stagnant pattern for a bit.


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Yeah early to mid April definitely looks to be pretty stagnant. Hopefully we see a pattern shift mid to late April. Just always concerning when you see these patterns in peak tornado months. Getting flashbacks of last year.

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