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Torch Tiger

April 2021 Discussion

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2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

The pacific is killing the remaining few opportunities at record cold/snowfall. But it looks more like we’re trading New England in March for Ireland in May. It’s progress. But far from the pattern we hope for this time of year...Great for growing though...

Heh... The Pacific circulation envelope has been sort of f*ed all cold season ...going back to perhaps 2004 ( Lol )

Seriously though, telecon layouts have been demoing repeating poor correlations ...whereby they were remarkably more linearly suggestive between 1920 (reanalysis...) and the early 2000s.

I think it's CC frankly ...and I'm willing to push the hypothesis that the expanding Hadley Cell/tropical mass envelope into the lower Ferrel latitudes ( as discussed in climate reports et al...) is having a integrated effect on global base-line geostrophic wind velocities, and these are skewing the R-wave progression and residences, which could certainly explain some of the reason why ENSOs are less representative - not saying there's 0 climate impacts - people read things and tend to pack the comprehension at absolute ends of concepts but ( not you per se just sayn') this is all just by 'tendency' ...

But it's enough therein to f shit up... Particularly, this seasonal lag thing that is dumping weird cold plumes in April's and May's  ... To be fair and honest, I'm saying Thursday is the last body blow - but that is relative to the present signals et al, but I also just got down indicating those signals are less than dependable. So, May may ( pun intended ) 1977 our asses for all I know...and we'll have a couple of 80 F days before then just make sure that the bud killer cold claims as many orchard trees as it physically can. ...I'm getting increasingly snark-droll here.

Anyway, the operational tenor is the key...and it matches the -PNA for whatever vestige of worth that has....  So that part agrees with you.  The MJO, on the other hand, does not.

It has a robust signal now late 7-8-1 ... That's a whole 'nother issue.   There's even a re-curving cyclone near Japan ... and I don't think it is too late in the season for the thermal flux into the westerlies out there to send a ripple down through the Americas from that uptake ... clock is ticking...Once the season really finally does break down to summer nebular flow constructs ...that transmission circuitry falls apart until October...  The problem with the MJO is that it, too, has been buried in the HC to the point where it may not be forcing as capable as it was 20 years ago.  Lot of changes in the global eddy - the previous understanding needs modulation. But, we are passing out of the hemispheric gradient and velocity, and the wave suddenly becoming robust is probably because it's signature is no longer being as damped by the former footprint.  So "maybe" that allows it to force more ?  Supposition...but I feel a good one.  It may not mean snow ... duh.  I mean we could get record cold now and have it be too warm for snow at this point now passing the 20th of April.  

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53 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Perfect recipe for brush fires too with today's winds.

It's wet underneath the top layer of leaves. I was just raking. Ground is damp too

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1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Showers? Looks like many could be a solid inch of rain.

I guess an inch of rain is the new showers 

He’s lost it. So deep in the drought obsession. 

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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Question for Will (or anyone), what is the shortest snow season ORH has ever had? (Late first snowfall and early last snowfall)

1920-1921 11-25 (1920) 1.1 02-20 (1921) 11.2 86
1909-1910 11-24 (1909) 3.2 02-23 (1910) 1.2 90
2008-2009 12-07 (2008) 0.6 03-09 (2009) 2.8 91
1990-1991 12-28 (1990) 5.0 03-30 (1991) 0.9 91
1953-1954 11-06 (1953) 0.6 02-08 (1954) 0.8 93
2006-2007 12-30 (2006) 0.7 04-05 (2007) 2.3 95
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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:
1920-1921 11-25 (1920) 1.1 02-20 (1921) 11.2 86
1909-1910 11-24 (1909) 3.2 02-23 (1910) 1.2 90
2008-2009 12-07 (2008) 0.6 03-09 (2009) 2.8 91
1990-1991 12-28 (1990) 5.0 03-30 (1991) 0.9 91
1953-1954 11-06 (1953) 0.6 02-08 (1954) 0.8 93
2006-2007 12-30 (2006) 0.7 04-05 (2007) 2.3 95

Longest

1944-1945 11-06 (1944) 0.7 05-11 (1945) 1.5 185
1934-1935 10-13 (1934) 1.3 04-17 (1935) 3.5 185
1964-1965 10-21 (1964) 2.1 04-23 (1965) 0.6 183
1976-1977 11-10 (1976) 3.0 05-10 (1977) 1.3 180
1961-1962 10-15 (1961) 0.9 04-12 (1962) 1.3 178
1925-1926 10-10 (1925) 1.9 04-07 (1926) 0.7 178
1963-1964 10-29 (1963) 0.5 04-20 (1964) 0.7 173
1960-1961 10-24 (1960) 2.1 04-13 (1961) 3.5 170
1986-1987 11-11 (1986) 4.9 04-29 (1987) 2.0 168

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Longest

1944-1945 11-06 (1944) 0.7 05-11 (1945) 1.5 185
1934-1935 10-13 (1934) 1.3 04-17 (1935) 3.5 185
1964-1965 10-21 (1964) 2.1 04-23 (1965) 0.6 183
1976-1977 11-10 (1976) 3.0 05-10 (1977) 1.3 180
1961-1962 10-15 (1961) 0.9 04-12 (1962) 1.3 178
1925-1926 10-10 (1925) 1.9 04-07 (1926) 0.7 178
1963-1964 10-29 (1963) 0.5 04-20 (1964) 0.7 173
1960-1961 10-24 (1960) 2.1 04-13 (1961) 3.5 170
1986-1987 11-11 (1986) 4.9 04-29 (1987) 2.0 168

What’s the threshold? 1/2”?

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3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

It's wet underneath the top layer of leaves. I was just raking. Ground is damp too

Heard Sterling out with a one earlier.

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7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

What’s the threshold? 1/2”?

Yea  1920 top dog didn’t change with .1

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea  1920 top dog didn’t change with .1

Where's the .1?  I didn’t see any .1 on that shortest chart? Am I missing something? 

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Saturday is looking like a chamber special ! Anyone (Hubb) know of where one might catch a daytime beer and some music? Stone Cow maybe?

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Where's the .1?  I didn’t see any .1 on that shortest chart? Am I missing something? 

 >=.1 snow first and last

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s gotten very dry 

With all the 80's next week and only showers on Sunday SNE is going to be a tinderbox!

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1 minute ago, kdxken said:

With all the 80's next week and only showers on Sunday SNE is going to be a tinderbox!

5 of the last 7 days had measurable, dude is on crack

  • Haha 2

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 >=.1 snow first and last

How about a trace? Curious when the last flakes were in spring of 93 after the 9/30/92 trace.

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30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 >=.1 snow first and last

So it’s .1 and not .5/or a half inch as Dendy asked?   Thanks for the clarification. 

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5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So it’s .1 and not .5/or a half inch as Dendy asked?   Thanks for the clarification. 

Lol no opposite but I checked. 1

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36 minutes ago, dendrite said:

How about a trace? Curious when the last flakes were in spring of 93 after the 9/30/92 trace.

Can't do trace on xmacis probably because hail is listed as trace

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