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Torch Tiger

April 2021 Discussion

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This time of year the higher elevations are usually always favored, however, I think this setup there is alot favoring the potential for snow at all elevations. For one, the models are indicating a pretty cold low-level airmass and looks like we will be seeing surface winds with a predominately northerly component. Also, the time of day could be a huge positive as looks like the majority of the processes at play occurring overnight Thursday and even moving through Friday morning...the processes surrounding dynamic cooling, drawing down colder air from up north, and the quite cold low-level airmass...all should pay in favor to keep a favorable thermo profile even at the lowest elevations. 

The biggest overall concern may be more dry air into the DGZ or where the strongest lift occurs and where the H5 tracks/closes off. But if this all happens in a favorable location...elevation I don't think plays much of a role...but of course the greatest of accumulations would probably occur with higher elevation.

In that case I’d roll with an idea of seeing 2-4/3-6” for some of us even this far west and into lower elevations with definite room for up to a foot in the typical elevations. In general, still have to favor elevations 

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1 minute ago, crossbowftw3 said:

In that case I’d roll with an idea of seeing 2-4/3-6” for some of us even this far west and into lower elevations with definite room for up to a foot in the typical elevations. In general, still have to favor elevations 

Depending on actual wind direction there is major upslope potential for parts of the Berks...someone there could get destroyed depending how this plays out. 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Depending on actual wind direction there is major upslope potential for parts of the Berks...someone there could get destroyed depending how this plays out. 

I’d do anything to be at a ski resort in the Berkshires right now. 

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why are all hotels sold out on a Thursday nite in Berks and S Vt.  Is there some giant earthy crunchy event or are these places just closed after ski season for a bit. 

Seems odd ....route 9 ...just a cpl with vacancy in S VT ....Okemo ...about sold out...stratton ditto....same every area.  Who else besides my moronic azz wants to stay out there.

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4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

why are all hotels sold out on a Thursday nite in Berks and S Vt.  Is there some giant earthy crunchy event or are these places just closed after ski season for a bit. 

Seems odd ....route 9 ...just a cpl with vacancy in S VT ....Okemo ...about sold out...stratton ditto....same every area.  Who else besides my moronic azz wants to stay out there.

Breweries 

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36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It would probably be a historic storm if everything was south/southeast about 100 miles.

I wonder if we see a correction that direction in the coming days (at least a little bit). I feel like we are right in the window of modeling guidance where it over corrects on wrapping up these coastal lows. You know the period of "OMG it's going to stall and loop south of ACK".

Then when the actual event happens its always more progressive and never actually stalls or loops.

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I really like that zone. You know it was coming when Phin went to Florida.

But that area is a climo favored late-season storm spot, not that climo seems to mean anything anymore...

ecmwf-deterministic-vt-total_snow_10to1-8617600.thumb.png.00db0282b46550072c67e65ebe20824f.png

What in sam hell??

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My forecast has not changed much, though the models have trended a bit north overnight so I might need to lower totals a bit on the cape and south shore. Still looking good though for a foot+ BOS-PVD corridor with more to the NW, with the south shore and cape being more uncertain. I could realistically see anything from just cold rain down there to 6-12 inches of heavy wet snow, right now I’m leaning 3-6 south shore and 1-3 cape, lower than my earlier forecast due to the shift north on the models. This forecast assumes the shift north will end and correct back south, likely somewhere in between today’s runs and yesterday’s.

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Just now, Lava Rock said:

Not that I would have snowblowed, but I just took off the blower last wknd.

Mine is still on, But i would not bother.

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Just now, dendrite said:

I'd feel better about accums if it was May or October. April is no longer a winter month up here.

May's a severe month 

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GFS is a monadnock to berkshires obliterator.

Prob gets a good chunk of W CT too.

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

Not terrible on the GFS...just need to get it south a bit more ughhhh. but that's an interior smacking

I'm hoping you get buried.

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You need an ideal everything ...?

Not really ... 1978 Feb was not ideal for 'some' reason - just a matter of obsessive tedium by us neurotic malcontents to find it, but nothing is perfect in the Universe - LOL

But ..there's time to shave a half deg in critical layers and make the difference between cat paw white rain vs 'chutes.   I'd say get this to the 85th %tile or so, and then let things synergistically parlay the rest of the way. I mean ...what are one's alternative?  Angst to the point of precancerous inflamation factors over that which we cannot force by hope -

In more critical terms, I'm not sure the EPS mid level height falls can happen without it snowing in this profile, and it probably snows vis all the way down to blue air visibility at 34.5 F too.  I bet the cat paw temperature is like 39.7 F ... blat blats on the windshields with big drops in street lamps... over to slush at 37.6.  It's a classic spring top down cooling scenario and it snows above freezing ...etc...etc... when that's the deal.   I almost suspect these QPF ptype charts are really not seeing that... They are just seeing where < 33 flirts with the tree tops -

 

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Yikes...that's close to big paste here as well. 33F at 2m in mby Fri afternoon. The DGZ dries out midday so the best mid level forcing is more up toward Gene and WNE.

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6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ha. It backs in the surface over DIT’s head. 

Ryan flashing to snow at times while NE CT stays rain?

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13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

they don't even get severe anymore either :lol: 

Rough period for chasers out there. Though I’m sure normal people are happy about that. I’m considering a trip to the northern plains this spring. Maybe I can get in front of a high risk derecho :weenie:.

Anyway—on topic. End week looks robust lol. Nice signal but I worry about rug pulling inside 24h. Berks look nice though. 

 

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