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Torch Tiger

April 2021 Discussion

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9 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Pretty much a no show here.  ORH checking in with less than a quarter inch.

We were Steined up until Sunday. 

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6 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

NWS forecast for 1.09". KASH bucket currently at 0.10". Steined!

Toss that. They had to have had over a quarter inch. 

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21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow

 

FB_IMG_1617287379954.jpg

Now you're going to tell us that's pulled from history ?

uh ... what are the dates? 

Having said that, not trying to be a dick ...but folks need to supply some context to these sort of gaslight posts - LOL...  

2ndly... yeah... if this were January .. February into mid March, I'd straight up say that the present American (GEF -based) telecon layout screams an giant cold systemic monster storm. 

I don't know about April though ..when the sun's modulating influence ... normalizes lower tropospheric ambient baroclinic gradients ( big words for starts canceling instability so cyclones tend to be weaker and less substantial overall ...).

But man... the PNA has decided to go actually positive.. Previous night's computaions for that index had it rising from -2 or so ... to approximately 0 ( neutral ) - which means, there was previously only a so-so signal over N/A for western heights to rise ... (concomitantly, lowering in the east..etc... )

But last night it sht up and to +2 ...

-2 to +2, doing so through a mass-domain that is truly enormous..  It spans much of the eastern Pacific, E of the dateline, ..over western N/A... so, that is not a trivial change in the particular index's mode - to put it softly.   Meanwhile, we have this ongoing pig -NAO block regime that's more persistent in all guidance than the Rock of Gibraltor - there's virtually 0 remaining in the doubt-tank as to whether that index will actually be negative, from tomorrow until further notice.

If this were say January 28th...I'd be putting together thread for a monster signal between D7 and 12.  

I don't know about April. We've had blizzards in April and May - I don't know if it is worth it... but for those with wherewithal to do so may get a kick out of itemizing a list of those events, and then studying the two week telecon modes and modalities immediately leading.  Perhaps there is some common behavior that can be identified and compared.   I know that big May 1977 snow that dumped a foot in the interior was preceded by a west -based NAO; I studied that one myself. But the flow around that was relaxed, leaving two factors: unusual cold plume pinched south, directed over the region by downstream block - simplified, so the fragility of  the anomaly was allowed to fester into the region ... - it's like chaos completely checked out and let just the cold hole's instability drive the event.

  • Weenie 1

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19 minutes ago, GCWarrior said:

when was that?

 

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Now you're going to tell us that's pulled from history ?

uh ... what are the dates? 

Having said that, not trying to be a dick ...but folks need to supply some context to these sort of gaslight posts - LOL...  

2ndly... yeah... if this were January .. February into mid March, I'd straight up say that the present American (GEF -based) telecon layout screams an giant cold systemic monster storm. 

I don't know about April though ..when the sun's modulating influence ... normalizes lower tropospheric ambient baroclinic gradients ( big words for starts canceling instability so cyclones tend to be weaker and less substantial overall ...).

But man... the PNA has decided to go actually positive.. Previous night's computaions for that index had it rising from -2 or so ... to approximately 0 ( neutral ) - which means, there was previously only a so-so signal over N/A for western heights to rise ... (concomitantly, lowering in the east..etc... )

But last night it sht up and to +2 ...

-2 to +2, doing so through a mass-domain that is truly enormous..  It spans much of the eastern Pacific, E of the dateline, ..over western N/A... so, that is not a trivial change in the particular index's mode - to put it softly.   Meanwhile, we have this ongoing pig -NAO block regime that's more persistent in all guidance than the Rock of Gibraltor - there's virtually 0 remaining in the doubt-tank as to whether that index will actually be negative, from tomorrow until further notice.

If this were say January 28th...I'd be putting together thread for a monster signal between D7 and 12.  

I don't know about April. We've had blizzards in April and May - I don't know if it is worth it... but for those with wherewithal to do so may get a kick out of itemizing a list of those events, and then studying the two week telecon modes and modalities immediately leading.  Perhaps there is some common behavior that can be identified and compared.   I know that big May 1977 snow that dumped a foot in the interior was preceded by a west -based NAO; I studied that one myself. But the flow around that was relaxed, leaving two factors: unusual cold plume pinched south, directed over the region by downstream block - simplified, so the fragility of  the anomaly was allowed to fester into the region ... - it's like chaos completely checked out and let just the cold hole's instability drive the event.

I believe this is Juno

  • Weenie 1

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13 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Man, today sure sucks.

K, everyone - Moneypitmike is officially on suicide watch ...

considering we are all of 3 hours into the 3 week long shits pattern and he's already sounding off - can you imagine the red-eyed, straight-jacket chair rocketing apoplexy when it's April 15, 35 F with rain and cat-paws and a forecast of 0 sun out to the edge of media frames?? 

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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I saw that coming this year.

Lol, uh.. not to diminish the significance of that stunning achievement on your part ... but, any feline brain-pan probably suspected the same at this point - considering that regardless of ENSO this, or PDO/AMO that, or ZYZYGY and Taro cards being played, ... this region of the world appears geophysically designated bum-run palace from late March until early July for 10 years running.  Gets a bit hard not to expect Stockholm's the new home

 

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2 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

Man, today sure sucks.

It’s been OK here. A few brief showers this morning but otherwise bright cloud deck with occasional breaks of sun. Mid 40s.

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1 hour ago, TheBudMan said:

All these April Fools posts today are going to reel poor Tip in ...... every one em 

My nine-year-old and I got up this morning and he knows mom sleeps till 7:30 so he had a great April Fools plan I helped him with. 
Tied a string around the bedroom door knob, duct taped it to one of those big exercise balls and put a portable keyboard in front of it. 
She pulled open the door, the ball rolled across the entire length of the keyboard at full volume.

:P

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25 minutes ago, dendrite said:

GFS gone wild up here next weekend. Tossing.

Cutoffs galore

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Stein nervous.. very very nervous 

 

Good, I hope we get an inch total of QPF in April, I love dry weather.

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17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Could have had the game today lol.

My buddy had to push his flight back until Sat AM. Fiancé is a little Salty over me not driving with her Friday afternoon to CT. What can ya do lol 

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