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April 2021 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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15 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I am enjoying a dry yard and a lazy Sunday.  
 

98AC3A38-D4EA-4694-911A-E1721D11C226.thumb.jpeg.44e1f94850772aa5b58026d3e7bcdc38.jpeg

Last time I warmed my feet by the fire like that I didn't realize that the bottom of my feet were blistering until I stood up.  Partial Neuropathy for the win!

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Not a drop from this last system and another windy day today.  The woodlot has lost more trees from wind this cold season than in any of the other 22 years here.  Not many wildfires in past years around this area, but today's wind and tomorrow's miniscule RH ups the danger.  Glad it's not on the weekend when folks will be raking and burning.

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Just now, tamarack said:

Not a drop from this last system and another windy day today.  The woodlot has lost more trees from wind this cold season than in any of the other 22 years here.  Not many wildfires in past years around this area, but today's wind and tomorrow's miniscule RH ups the danger.  Glad it's not on the weekend when folks will be raking and burning.

Lotsa firewood

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41 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Thanks for posting that. I was heading south on rt. 3 just north of exit 1 where you can look out over the Lowe's to the east and saw that plume of smoke on Saturday between 5 and 6. It was pretty impressive and definitely made be do a double take.

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Yeah... the models have been trying to sneak to shit look into the mid week ever since they [apparently ] lied last Thursday about the big warm up.

Every run... insidiously eroding 1.1 dm of heights and thickness less ...and ridge geometry nuances... Now, Wednesday could end up the coldest day of the week - ironically .. - by virtue of the fact that the wfront stalls near NYC and waves of clouds and soothing cool rain flop over in mocking pulses of the original outlook. 

It does that a lot in spring here too...  the opposite land affect -  Take a d7 look and there's an interestingly negative correlation that is larger than anywhere else in the world to make the models exactly wrong

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... the models have been trying to sneak to shit look into the mid week ever since they lied last Thursday about the big warm up look - every run... insidiously claiming 1.1 dm of heights and thickness ...and ridge geometry... Now, Wednesday could end up the coldest day of the week - ironically .. - by virtue of the fact that the wfront stalls near NYC and waves of clouds and soothing cool rain mock the original outlook to hell -

Ya I was just digging deeper, it can definitely turn ugly this week with clouds, drizzle, and cool air winning out and maybe only a few hours of warmth Wednesday.   Really annoying, had visions of finishing up the mulch beds under ideal conditions also have a busy baseball week with the kids, I don't mind 55-65 at all if it's sunny like today, but that doesn't seem to be the case the rest of the week.  Wednesday reminds me of a poor man's version of last May towards the end of the month we had a Friday where it was foggy, cloudy and dewy out, we finally made it to 78 with dews around 70 and minimal sun late in the day. 

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46 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

from the caption of the photo: "a wildfire that laid waste to 32 acres of land...". talk about sensationalism. it was a brush fire. and that land will be back to normal in a month or 2

Exactly.  
 

Thank you for posting this and setting straight the complete and total fake news of Stein. 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wednesday looks like it clears out south of I-90 with a beautiful sunny warm afternoon. Temps 75-82 south of 90. Thursday looks good too until late in the day when the front comes in with a shower. Weekend looks beautiful too

Pray for the euro...I didn't see 6z though.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wednesday looks like it clears out south of I-90 with a beautiful sunny warm afternoon. Temps 75-82 south of 90. Thursday looks good too until late in the day when the front comes in with a shower. Weekend looks beautiful too

Not sure about the temps per se ..but could be the case in general.  The pike more or less delineating ...

I could see HFD going partly cloud with a T spike ... and KFIT that same hour ...circa 18 to 21Z in the afternoon, is 19 F cooler with still air rhea.

The other aspect is convection?   I'm wondering if there may be some TCU in the region, elevated bases training ESE along Rt 2 and maybe more SB CAPE in CT.  

Trick is that the guidance is nebulous or 'blurry' about where the boundary situates. The flow off the deck is paralleling the front as opposed to the ridge being stronger and having it move the warm front bodily through like the guidance suggested a few days ago.  And this is May in butt-bone New England in spring...and any time you give any excuse imagined to make the models wrong about warmth getting this far NE ... reality always takes advantage of that... Lol -

little frustration there, tongue-in-cheek. But sufficed it is to say ...the eastern ends of warm fronts sag or stall when the flow is light over top and tending to parallel.

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I think S of the pike probably warm sectors but seeing some warm frontal rains on the gfs wed morning does give me a little pause. CT usually blows the warm fronts through pretty easily though. Especially 1k in the hills like in the winter. 

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I see where the Pope is coming from tho -

In the traditional sense that is ...  I mean if going with the sort of 'standard' application of telecon spread ... there is no such thing as global warming any more and we are in fact about to freeze over and turn the Earth into a redux of the Cryogenian Epoch ...

But, the telecon correlations are shakier heading toward May.  That's seasonal climatology suggesting that. With the flow showing present signs of R-wave entropy ( so yeah..) .. that should skew the assumption/application. So this raging boner phase 8 MJO could be less mechanically forcing - ...

I'm not sure the MJO will transmit that signal through hemisphere because of the wave signature obscuring. 

The MJO has really been taking a back seat in my estimation, in recent years for that matter.  I hypothesize there may be a relationship to the CC -related Hadley Cell expansion, and the speeding velocity anomalies and is mucking with the R-wave distributions ... complicated. 

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1 hour ago, DavisStraight said:

Lotsa firewood

Nearly all balsam fir - high water content and low heat value even when dry, and most is far beyond where I can lug it to the road.  Maybe burn the nearby stuff next September.  Fir is the most vulnerable species during leaf-off, aspen when leaves are out.  I don't think today's wind will bring down any more.

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12z 32km NAM is classic put-house-up-for-sale-and-move-away-from-this-climate-anus material ...

Has Lifted Index down to -3 over LGA, and +9 over BOS Wednesday afternoon.

Seriously though... as I get older, I'm losing my winter fascination - I know ... I know. This may not be shared as a personal perspective with very many others in this particular social media depot. 

But I'm getting increasingly more indifferent to winter shenanigans .. and more so embracing of that evil other end of the weather types ( lol ), it just makes me loathe this geomorphological belated seasonal change bs that happens in New England.

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39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wednesday looks like it clears out south of I-90 with a beautiful sunny warm afternoon. Temps 75-82 south of 90. Thursday looks good too until late in the day when the front comes in with a shower. Weekend looks beautiful too

Thursday and Friday look showery and the weekend looks cold for this time of year. At least it might be sunny.

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