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April 2021 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

FWIW weeklies looked warm in May. 

I have no confidence in any evaluation right now..

The MJO is shockingly robust in the May blizzard range of the RMM migration... with every single member and cross guidance in a-bomb support of cryogentic black hole centered on Mt Watchusett ... lol..

If I saw that in January/February ... and we were not in a multi-century anthropomorphically enforced Global Warming attributed Hadley Cell expansion, I'd suggest that the Great Lakes, OV ... NE and MA start evacuation procedures now because of an extinction level climate attack on that region...  But the HC has everything f-ed up and I don't know if the same tendency to mute the MJOs ...which was evidence all winter long, ...is still going on now that it is spring - with seasonal change comes a break down this and that... blah blah. 

I don't think it is a coincidence that as the hemispheric gradient is weakening ...taking the HC compression down as well...and the flow velocities everywhere are slackening and shortening wave lengths ... as presently evidenced, that the MJO suddenly presents like a cat in heat.  It may be more effective at forcing the Pacific, due to no longer being damped and absorbed in the HC that no one wants to read about.. heh.   

IF it does/did ... it ain't gon' be no warmin' in May.  

The Euro has the same insane MJO signal too - just recurved a typhoon too if that were not enough.  The GEFs and GFS started punching more trough into the E and f-ing up next week's previous warm signal.   MOS MEX has cut 12 F off those explosive highs it eye-popped with, yesterday, ...out of nowhere, broke trends and looking banal and uninspired and almost normal highs ....  Went from 18 over climo ( incredible to tamp climate in doing so...) all the way to almost negligible +MOS numbers on the 00z run...

Nooormally I'd say that is a bad run and a continuity flop by a model that has a velocity issues regardless of what the hemisphere is doing... such that it ablates ridges to prodigiously - but the stuff above supports it.  And I wonder if/when the Euro cluster may suddenly go, oops and pull the rug out ...bend us all over for a Pulp Fiction May ...

Or not .. the R-wave disruption associated with seasonal change ...does effect how effective the MJO can disperse a wave forcing ... so, it could be a red herring and smoke screen. 

As far as the Euro's BD at D6.5 (~) meh... I think you were being hyperbole there -  it's likely it's too cute with surface pp attributes...because the 500mb doesn't really look like a confluent BD machine ...  In other words, noise made BD ... looks shallow and washing out D7 ... If anything, it may be a weak convergence left over and convection next Thursday ... Having said that... this is just in deference to that one run.  We have to remember, this region reside in a perpetual state of KY jelly bums. From April to the end of June of ever year... it is "butt" a cursed geologic cold anus known as New England ... One should fully expect at this time of year for the pattern to just ... seemingly 'metaphysically' start engineering a BD anyway  :axe:

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