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April 2021 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That could easily be south of SNE. He’s talking about more cold shots. They done .Tippy’s been discussing this for a week. After tomorrow cold is gone 

We are talking about installing air conditioning with 60s 70s 50s with lows in the lower 40s 30s. Guess I live on a different planet

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Wx2fish showed a pic of it ripping at Pittsburg. LTG up there too.

A few inches at 1,500ft... 1.5" down in the village.  The picnic table snow cam got like 5" in 3 hours.

Good burst of heavy snow this morning.  Now we wait for this afternoon/evening's round.

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I don't believe at this time the Euro will be more right about Monday's synopsis over eastern New England, than the weaker appeals of the consensus and other guidance types.

Its subtle, but crucially it's adding amplitude from seemingly nowhere regarding the southern stream impulse it is handling/ relaying through the TV from D4+  ... The model does this all the time at that particular temporal seam.  And that sets the stage for an erroneous, subsequent over phasing with a flat wave stabbing in from southern Canada. 

I agree with the general notion of stream/mechanical interactions there, but the Euro typically does this... it slows down flows ( or imposes extra curvature that results in slowing...) along that D4 to 5 interface. In fact, it then does that out there further in time too... But it ends up with more amplitude than other guidance and it's own EPS mean by too much on Monday, which lends to its wrapping in deeper cold tap.  We'll see, but I'm guess less there -

The bigger blow of cold is Thursday ... circa Saturday. I'm guessing it is the last major cold anomaly until further notice.  I see a pattern change - one perhaps augmented by mid august sun dosing the hemisphere at this point, and only getting stronger.  Which ever is more important in that relationship aside, there is a pretty coherent flashing over the hemisphere in all guidance and means - even though the Euro is suspiciously over amped for Monday, thereafter even it ends up with a tepid to warm hemisphere, too. 

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