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April 2021 Discussion

Torch Tiger

By Torch Tiger,
in New England

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Ginx snewx
Ginx snewx

Meh, more doo added last night as we  had an emergency rescue of 13 pups whose mother tragically died.  We are fostering these two cuties 6 weeks old 

George001
George001

I just checked the models and based on what I am seeing it appears a low is going to be developing underneath Long Island and undergo rapid cyclogenesis, developing into a monster ocean low reminiscen

RUNNAWAYICEBERG
RUNNAWAYICEBERG

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klw

klw

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Stein, Stein, everywhere Stein
Burning up the scenery, dryin' my eyes
Dried up, don't water that
Can't you see it's Stein?

I saw the Stein and it opened up my eyes
I saw the Stein
Life is demanding without understanding
I saw the Stein and it opened up my eyes
I saw the Stein
No one's gonna drag you up
To get into the Drought Monitor Category where you belong
But where do you belong?

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, klw said:

I saw the Stein and it opened up my eyes
I saw the Stein
Life is demanding without understanding
I saw the Stein and it opened up my eyes
I saw the Stein
No one's gonna drag you up
To get into the Drought Monitor Category where you belong
But where do you belong?

All that Stein wants, is another rainy
Then it's gone tomorrow

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Little uneasy in saying this ... buuuut, the latter mid and extended range may get forced by the sun to be less miserable.  This typically happens in spring.  If a given scenario is coming along without necessarily strong enough anomalous forcing, the mid and extended dour looks will tend to end up not as bad once said range is in short. 

2005 May?  April 1987 ?  ... those are examples where said forcing WAS substantively powerful enough to block the sun so to speak... And the S.A.D. putrescence was so dour as to challenge the very endurance of man for having achieved that, too -

But that 00z Euro operational is coughing up hair balls in that look... Strikes me as more residual and I bet the model smooths some of that out as it near/future guidance.  That weird neg tilted trough at D8.5-10 that only has 2 contours around it...probably doesn't really have enough actual mechanical energy to dictate the surface pressure pattern from Bermuda to Chicago when push comes to shove.

This week did that ?

You man recall ... 7 day ago, the Euro had us in a rhea wheel of real 38 F misty shits .. with light rain and wet snow ( non sticking variety ) for days...   As this time arrived, gradually aspects designed less putrid.  Now look what this turned into.  The vortex become gradually less obtrusive and stalled, weaker really ... and tomorrow thru Friday could be 64 to 72 with high April sun by day, though an open emerald blue sky.  You'll look down the street and see the air shimmering and with light wind. These could be candidate top 10 qualifier afternoons.   Meanwhile the nights may even stay above freezing - kind of reminds me of those nape days last week, only 15 milder at night.  Those were nuts!  We had one day here ... 19.4 was the low at 6:35 a.m., and it was 64 average among the home-stations within a mile or two of town at 4 pm.  Sun set, 41 immediately..

... as an aside, we are limping into green up here in the interior ( at least in Nashoba 'nighttime cold hell' Valley).  I 'm sure down along the S-SE Coastal Plains you're further along.  Really the shrubbery buds are sluggishly opening, lawns and fields are sort of greener.  However, I am noticing the 200 year old maple, corner to my property, it's buds are starting to swell just a little.  I suspect all these various prominences will accelerate(d) their intentions of life by week's end. I have noticed over the years - really accelerating green-up is more about keeping the nights above freezing.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Little uneasy in saying this ... buuuut, the latter mid and extended range may get forced by the sun to be less miserable.  This typically happens in spring.  If a given scenario is coming along without necessarily strong enough anomalous forcing, the mid and extended dour looks will tend to end up not as bad once said range is in short. 

2005 May?  April 1987 ?  ... those are examples where said forcing WAS substantively powerful enough to block the sun so to speak... And the S.A.D. putrescence was so dour as to challenge the very endurance of man for having achieved that, too -

But that 00z Euro operational is coughing up hair balls in that look... Strikes me as more residual and I bet the model smooths some of that out as it near/future guidance.  That weird neg tilted trough at D8.5-10 that only has 2 contours around it...probably doesn't really have enough actual mechanical energy to dictate the surface pressure pattern from Bermuda to Chicago when push comes to shove.

This week did that ?

You man recall ... 7 day ago, the Euro had us in a rhea wheel of real 38 F misty shits .. with light rain and wet snow ( non sticking variety ) for days...   As this time arrived, gradually aspects designed less putrid.  Now look what this turned into.  The vortex become gradually less obtrusive and stalled, weaker really ... and tomorrow thru Friday could be 64 to 72 with high April sun by day, though an open emerald blue sky.  You'll look down the street and see the air shimmering and with light wind. These could be candidate top 10 qualifier afternoons.   Meanwhile the nights may even stay above freezing - kind of reminds me of those nape days last week, only 15 milder at night.  Those were nuts!  We had one day here ... 19.4 was the low at 6:35 a.m., and it was 64 average among the home-stations within a mile or two of town at 4 pm.  Sun set, 41 immediately..

... as an aside, we are limping into green up here in the interior ( at least in Nashoba 'nighttime cold hell' Valley).  I 'm sure down along the S-SE Coastal Plains you're further along.  Really the shrubbery buds are sluggishly opening, lawns and fields are sort of greener.  However, I am noticing the 200 year old maple, corner to my property, it's buds are starting to swell just a little.  I suspect all these various prominences will accelerate(d) their intentions of life by week's end. I have noticed over the years - really accelerating green-up is more about keeping the nights above freezing.

I read this whole post! 
Agreed on all counts 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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51 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Weird how last year was the “winter that wouldn’t die” and this year it’s like someone flipped a switch on March 1st. and  I’m ok with that too 

Not to be a semantic noog but ... that 'switch,' in that context you use ...sort of implies the opposite of 'winter won't die' ??

I don't see this as diametrical to that - which would mean 70 to 80 and summery ... which we have had March's and April obscenely warm like that ... mainly sprinkled about the statistics since the year 2000. 

On that .. prior to 2000, I personally NEVER saw that happen.   I have, since 2000, experienced three springs that held warm anomalies startlingly high at all times, and more than a handful that at least had an intra-seasonal run in with exotic heat for so early in the season.   Not sure what's up with the climate that's not changing ^_^

Being dyck there a little ... But you get my meaning -

Anyway, this spring seems ... pretty darn average frankly.  Oh, it'll be above average to some degree, ... perhaps atoning for the CC footprint.  But not outlandish like those mentioned above ( save that one warm period a month ago maybe ... )... By and large, not terrible misery misted, and not eerily hot either.    We still have April to go... and frankly May is not guarantee around our region of the world either.  But just sayin' so far -

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I read this whole post! 
Agreed on all counts 

keep in mind ... "suspect" is not a declaration or anything ...lol

The context of that is more of suspicious of the Euro's scale and degree of toaster bathing -  ...

I will say, so long as the PNA is positive/rising, and the NAO stays negative, at any point a substantial impulse could avail of that and it all goes south really quite - I mean the scaffolding for it is in place.  It's almost like we are dodging bullets and getting sort of lucky, relative to +1 PNA/ ... -2 west based NAO

The Euro appears to send a BD down over the weekend too...it's just that it's merged into the on-going top-heavy pressure pattern ( higher pressure N of Maine already..) so it's a bit obscured in there.  One would expect a BD might get sent down with that block getting stronger over NE Quebec.   It's a lot of confluence and a BD should really evolve given time... I could see us being laze faire with near hammock glut afternoons and then... duh duh dunnnnn - time to slam some screen doors and snap flags to rudely re-introduce the planetary spring curse.  Lol

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

keep in mind ... "suspect" is not a declaration or anything ...lol

The context of that is more of suspicious of the Euro's scale and degree of toaster bathing -  ...

I will say, so long as the PNA is positive/rising, and the NAO stays negative, at any point a substantial impulse could avail of that and it all goes south really quite - I mean the scaffolding for it is in place.  It's almost like we are dodging bullets and getting sort of lucky, relative to +1 PNA/ ... -2 west based NAO

The Euro appears to send a BD down over the weekend too...it's just that it's merged into the on-going top-heavy pressure pattern ( higher pressure N of Maine already..) so it's a bit obscured in there.  One would expect a BD might get sent down with that block getting stronger over NE Quebec.   It's a lot of confluence and a BD should really evolve given time... I could see us being laze faire with near hammock glut afternoons and then... duh duh dunnnnn - time to slam some screen doors and snap flags to rudely re-introduce the planetary spring curse.  Lol

Hopefully not the kind that rips every screen door off hinges from Maine to Philly 

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