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April 2021 Discussion

Torch Tiger

By Torch Tiger,
in New England

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Ginx snewx
Ginx snewx

Meh, more doo added last night as we  had an emergency rescue of 13 pups whose mother tragically died.  We are fostering these two cuties 6 weeks old 

George001
George001

I just checked the models and based on what I am seeing it appears a low is going to be developing underneath Long Island and undergo rapid cyclogenesis, developing into a monster ocean low reminiscen

RUNNAWAYICEBERG
RUNNAWAYICEBERG

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Scoots got taken to the woodshed for the upcoming week. Pretty bad whipping 

What could work in favor for warm weather fans is that we have dry
antecedent conditions and it does not take much for temperatures to
overperform with a combination of downsloping and the higher sun
angle in early April. Then towards mid week, with the H5 low further
offshore, Wednesday and Thursday should represent our best chance
for more widespread 60s, with the exception being the Cape and
Islands as the flow turns northerly. Overall, agree with the CPC`s 6
to 10 day outlook for 40 to 50 percent probability of above normal
temperatures (though this would be generous for coastal areas).
Precipitation wise, expect mainly dry conditions to prevail as the
aforementioned high latitude blocking tends to shunt precipitation
to the south and west. There could be some showers over the Cape
and Islands on Monday associated with the warm advection from
the offshore H5 low. Otherwise, it is mostly dry until the
Friday/Saturday time frame. Even then, the latest suite of
model guidance has been less bullish with the late- week
precipitation and would not be surprised to see it trend even
drier.
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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's called labile hypertension ... those that run a bit high, run a bit hot  -  lol...

It is 44 average around the home stations within a mile or two of mi casa... But the wind is about as close to legit nill as is molecularly possible - ... flags motionless... under about the purest clearest blue imaginable.  

April sun cannot be denied!  

Out putsing around the yard ,... more so assessing and surveying what it'll need for now.  But in a sweatshirt and some halfhearted commitment to picking up debris, some raking, ...bit of clipper detailing here and there, this weather it really defines and underscores the  "naperil" appeal - classic faux warm day.   Does not feel that chilly at all.

The 12z GFS operational run is - quite ironically - putting up close to top 10 days both Wed and Thu now... Thicknesses (500 mb) surpassing 540 dm by a goodle number, with by then the equivalent of September 4th sun ( for perspective), and 850s creeping to +5 ... and light wind, and low ceiling sigma level RH ...etc..etc... should by busting MOS and tickling 70 again with limited flag wobbling spring fever as wildly more contagious pandemic in the region than this recent dystopian cinema ever was.. .LOL

Labile hypertension? It was 60 in the sun while digging fence posts. Shorts and tees and loving it. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Scoots got taken to the woodshed for the upcoming week. Pretty bad whipping 


What could work in favor for warm weather fans is that we have dry
antecedent conditions and it does not take much for temperatures to
overperform with a combination of downsloping and the higher sun
angle in early April. Then towards mid week, with the H5 low further
offshore, Wednesday and Thursday should represent our best chance
for more widespread 60s, with the exception being the Cape and
Islands as the flow turns northerly. Overall, agree with the CPC`s 6
to 10 day outlook for 40 to 50 percent probability of above normal
temperatures (though this would be generous for coastal areas).
Precipitation wise, expect mainly dry conditions to prevail as the
aforementioned high latitude blocking tends to shunt precipitation
to the south and west. There could be some showers over the Cape
and Islands on Monday associated with the warm advection from
the offshore H5 low. Otherwise, it is mostly dry until the
Friday/Saturday time frame. Even then, the latest suite of
model guidance has been less bullish with the late- week
precipitation and would not be surprised to see it trend even
drier.

Blustery Monday into Tuesday. Decent Wednesday and then cooler Thursday and esp Friday. As I said many times, meh. After Friday looks crappy.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Too bad we couldn’t see another frame on the Euro just for kicks. :lol:

image.thumb.gif.5ce6400b467dfac38affab29fe3f5f2a.gif

I don't think it's so far fetched...

If I had this layout of telecon on Feb 2nd or even March 2nd for that matter I'd have a thread already going for 'prelim risk assessment'

That's a monster signal 10 to 16th ... I've mentioned it before but - I don't think April is quite the same beast with the normalization of the sun - in fact, I can sense that already ...as this Monday and Tuesday is more than less coming into shorter range focus as not quite the same shit smear as it stunk like three days ago in the runs...

When I look over the other bigger April and May events in history, there was rifle shot roulette timing ...where the cold plume injected right on the cyclogen to maximize - and I think it needs that to succeed at this time of year,  or it goes cat-paws really fast - talking about big lows with WAA mechanics.  A snow shower in early May is a different phenomenon altogether.   I dunno - monster signal ...maybe at the wrong time of year :(   I'd love to see that spread in DJF tho - man.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s a really bad and likely wrong idea . We’ll verify 

Low 50s for you Monday with wind? Meh. Wednesday looks nice, but you'll barely crack 60. Thursday NE winds may pick up, but CT valley could be nice.  Friday looks cool. Meh. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Low 50s for you Monday with wind? Meh. Wednesday looks nice, but you'll barely crack 60. Thursday NE winds may pick up, but CT valley could be nice.  Friday looks cool. Meh. 

I see 58-60 Monday.. 60-65 mid week and partly cloudy thru Sunday not far from 60 either side. I think valley is near 70 once or twice.  That’s my look. Always go higher with no vegetation dry ground and west flow .May best met win

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I see 58-60 Monday.. 60-65 mid week and partly cloudy thru Sunday not far from 60 either side. I think valley is near 70 once or twice.  That’s my look. Always go higher with no vegetation dry ground and west flow .May best met win

I could care less about this week's weather. Wednesday is the only real day that looks truly Spring. 

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