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April 2021 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Makes it more of a kick in the nads when you sort of regress as you get into warmer months. But, it made March go by much quicker. March is one of those months that can be miserable AF if the wx stinks. 

Yeah...I mean we take something like March 2001 up here, but usually it's wrist slitting up here to end the month between cold, rain/snow, and all of the snow melt and mud. The dry preiod with warmth and sun (before yest) was awesome for mby. Yeah, the ground is still frozen and we flooded up for a day, but usually it's 3 weeks of that crap before it melts, thaws, and soaks in.

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19 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Even if it was nice I wouldn't put it above 2012 and 2010. But it's not looking too nice. But that's okay...it's still early and we got some bonus early spring warmth instead of the usual late March garbage.

I see a low way offshore with subsidence over the NE. That would mean sunny days with cool seabreezes there with 50’s while inland it’s cold at night and quickly warms under sun and light NE flow. How does that possibly look bad?

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I see a low way offshore with subsidence over the NE. That would mean sunny days with cool seabreezes there with 50’s while inland it’s cold at night and quickly warms under sun and light NE flow. How does that possibly look bad?

You don't see a frontal boundary draped south of New England? I do. 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s omnipresent from spring thru summer though. It’s far enough south it’s a mid Atlantic problem 

:lol:    I love your attitude. It's concerning to see and we also have bouts of precip shown on the mean. So I interpret it as overall meh. No it doesn't mean shit wx all the time....but that is the opposite of what we had in March.

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Just did interval comparison between the operational Euro and GFS. Remarkably good agreement through D5.

Beyond that, the primary differences noted are in the handling of the expectant/emerging -NAO flow construct over the N/NW Atlantic Basin; thus, how it backwardly exerts on the flow ( which is a misnomer because I still believe the NAO is a non-linear wave function dispersal model that is ultimately controlled by the flow off the Pacific, but that's 'sides the point ) .

The Euro positions an impressive +3 or +4 SD blocking ridge straddling the 55 W; contrasting, the GFS places it variation of that emerged feature ( similar amplitude ) closer to 45/50 W.

That is seemingly subtle, but it may profoundly provide better or worse sensible weather for New England depending .. 

A Euro solution probably pins one of the mass-balancing coupled, mid U/A cyclonic nodes that typically surround those ridges, more toward NS/outer GOM ( pretty much what you see out there D8.5 in the oper. run).

A GFS solution stretches the flow off NE more...and this shears the vortex and orients the deep layer flow more westerly over our region. 

Euro = rectal glue

GFS = remarkably pleasant - and least way more so than prior runs

I can see reasons, valid ones, to argue pros/cons for each solution, just about evenly.

A Euro solution is so ugly ( for spring/warmth enthusiasts) that one could even manufacture a snow event out of that - if noise rolled those dice right. 

A GFS on the other hand is more attractive. It probably does hang up an in-out BD scenario across 4 or 5 days, but there would be nape/mild ones in there - at which point ... balanced against April climatology, one should dust off and thank their lucky stars and move right along and be happy.

I'll just add this is the 2nd cycle in a row this new GFS version has bumped the -NAO orientation, overall, more easterly in structure. Also, the D0 to D5 overall agreement with the Euro is interesting ( as an aside) because the previous GFS version was consummately lowering heights too much and had trouble ever really matching the Euro's overall gradient, routinely by D3's ...Maybe we'll see some better performance from this new kid on the block.  But, part of the GFS cold bias/N/stream bully tendencies from the previous version tended to stretch fields to atone for the velocity surplus it then has to handle because of all that. The Euro could be overly conserving curvature in that range, because it does that ends up with an amplitude bias pretty routinely, which could atone for its looke too ... so yeah, pros and cons on both sides.

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I just noticed the 00z EPS mean also bumped the flow a touch E of previous whole-scale structure ( re the lower -NAO coupled vortex), and that 'sort of' spares NE 'rhea loading, too.  A bit more like the operational GFS frankly -

That 00z ICON solution also tries to conserve more progressive overall appeal, too - so hoot and holler  lol.  

We'll see how the 12z ambit behaves. That looks significantly in the EPS for D8 though ...

It wouldn't be the first time a -NAO was mishandled in guidance ... Don't wanna get ahead of myself - could all roll back to the previous, sure.  At least for the time being, these two seemingly innocuously different EPS means, doing "Previous" comparisons ( C/O Trop. Tidbits) would likely mean less direct assault from that asshole camping out there S of NS on the left (blw).

image.thumb.png.1ff164a71e283fd3bc409f7670efcbf1.png

 

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22 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah we pray. It could be a situation where we're in the NW flow, but close enough to the ULL for self destructive sunshine for a few days too.

Heh ...  I'd take that over having the Labrador's anus strapped to our faces for 10 days...

- it's a likeable trend, regardless of it's "fauxity" or not -

Tomorrow is a candidate for MOS busting too cool if anyone begs me for my cherished opine ...  I mean, totally different sensible appeal to today's soothing acid massage parlor. 

Both the NAM and the Euro... firstly, I don't get how these idiots are so cold on days like tomorrow's profile, all the time, every year ... since modeling began in the mid 1970s ... f!  Did the modelers not get the celestial mechanic's departmental memo that went around 4.5 billion years ago ...informing that every year we begin actually adding new heat to the mid latitudes as the Equinox nears ? 

-5 C with whole gales kissing roof tops today ... understandable. But with 850 mb all the way to +5 C, light WSW flow, 0 clouds, in post Equinox microwave emitter sun eyeballing the Earth, the NAM has no where near the 73 the 850 mb adiabat supports.   63.  

Should be 70 tomorrow...  It may stall at 63 - and leave me head scratching ...but I'm guessin' 64 :wacko2:.  

I'm willing to ablate that temperature for the notion that the mixing height probably doesn't get that tall... but 63 at KFIT is bullshit.

Euro is 54 across the interior with light d-slope westerly flow, at 21 Z, under warm-ish 850 mb, and a UV index of 10 billion  ..wtf

 

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I think I've figured it out ...

...there's an infiltration of climate deniers in the NCEP apparatus of personnel, strategically placed at calculated .. influential echelons.  These good-at-math-while-somehow-mind-bogglingly-capable-of-believing-CC-is-not-real types have morality to match, and are squashing the CC signal by clandestinely manipulating the ongoing daily cinema of the modeling ...

 

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It seems to me whenever the runs relax the flow... they flop big blocks up N...but then as the period nears, they speed back up in small amounts and it topples them... Now the GFS waits to relax the flow and has blocking out in the gaga range...

It's probable that we will have to go through 'some' sort of -NAO absolute terminus to the season ...

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29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It seems to me whenever the runs relax the flow... they flop big blocks up N...but then as the period nears, they speed back up in small amounts and it topples them... Now the GFS waits to relax the flow and has blocking out in the gaga range...

It's probable that we will have to go through 'some' sort of -NAO absolute terminus to the season ...

GFS is a disaster in the 11-15 day. 

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21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS is a disaster in the 11-15 day. 

Ya know what tho ?

...it's a relative win if that's the case. 

I have seen whole summers succumb to bad rhea patterns ... WHOLE summers.    2000 anyone?   That is bar none, the worst summer I can ever recall.  I mean it was like 64 and drizzling every day in July or something... I think the warmest it was that year was five days of bush burning weather in October.. made 78 to 82 for a week of tinder leaf smell - finally...

Anyway, I guess a -NAO pushed out 13 days has that much more higher sun angle to help offset - barring a 2000 moving in next door.

 

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3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ya know what tho ?

...it's a relative win if that's the case. 

I have seen whole summers succumb to bad rhea patterns ... WHOLE summers.    2000 anyone?   That is bar none, the worst summer I can ever recall.  I mean it was like 64 and drizzling every day in July or something... I think the warmest it was that year was five days of bush burning weather in October.. made 78 to 82 for a week of tinder leaf smell - finally...

Anyway, I guess a -NAO pushed out 13 days has that much more higher sun angle to help offset - barring a 2000 moving in next door.

 

Ha, I remember that summer. I was a lifeguard and the pool was like 68 degrees for most of the season. Rained every day. Nobody swam. Probably easiest money I ever made. 

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3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ya know what tho ?

...it's a relative win if that's the case. 

I have seen whole summers succumb to bad rhea patterns ... WHOLE summers.    2000 anyone?   That is bar none, the worst summer I can ever recall.  I mean it was like 64 and drizzling every day in July or something... I think the warmest it was that year was five days of bush burning weather in October.. made 78 to 82 for a week of tinder leaf smell - finally...

Anyway, I guess a -NAO pushed out 13 days has that much more higher sun angle to help offset - barring a 2000 moving in next door.

 

1992, 2000, and 2009 were the 3 worst. I think 4th of July in ‘92 was like 56 and rain. 

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2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

7/4/09 was pretty terrible too. Like 50s and pouring rain terrible. 

I just remember ORH didn’t hit 80 until like 3 weeks into July that summer which is ridiculous. I think it was the longest streak on record. They did hit 80F in the spring but then didn’t hit it again until late July. :lol:

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I just remember ORH didn’t hit 80 until like 3 weeks into July that summer which is ridiculous. I think it was the longest streak on record. They did hit 80F in the spring but then didn’t hit it again until late July. :lol:

Wish we could do that again..maybe this year go all summer :)

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I just remember ORH didn’t hit 80 until like 3 weeks into July that summer which is ridiculous. I think it was the longest streak on record. They did hit 80F in the spring but then didn’t hit it again until late July. :lol:

I think August was my first 80F that year. I had more HDD than CDD in July.

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33 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Or maybe Oregon or Washington state. I like 80 and dry, don't even mind 90+ and dry, just hate humidity.

I’ve been in Seattle with the temperature over 100.  Same for Portland.  But dews are low.   Eureka has consistent chilly windy conditions.  I like heat and dews but like everything else there’s a limit.  Oregon and WA have beautiful sunny warm dry summers with long days being north of 45N

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40 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Really hoping for a cool, breezy, cloudy summer up here. Last summer was too hot and humid.

You realize that just because you said this… the national guard’s gonna have to be called in for melting streets and bowing railroad tracks ... nice goin’

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