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Southern Sanitarium


buckeyefan1
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Idea-- stop looking at each new model as the gospel. Its snowing up and down the NC mountains this am. Not sure if that was really in the forecast.  And the gulf moisture is over performing nicely. It is also trending NNE as opposed to Ne or just E. The storm isnt even supposed to crank up until the afternoon and evening so good grief... enjoy the day. And what happens happens... 

Lastly it is JUST Jan 20th. We have 60days where we can see more winter wx. Cheers.

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1 hour ago, 85snowline said:

Idea-- stop looking at each new model as the gospel. Its snowing up and down the NC mountains this am. Not sure if that was really in the forecast.  And the gulf moisture is over performing nicely. It is also trending NNE as opposed to Ne or just E. The storm isnt even supposed to crank up until the afternoon and evening so good grief... enjoy the day. And what happens happens... 

Lastly it is JUST Jan 20th. We have 60days where we can see more winter wx. Cheers.

Lol I agree….. I feel Like Winter Storm tracking is more fun for me than the actual storm. It reminds me of if you’ve had a girl you were talking to and you guys went out occasionally when you didn’t have anything else to do and you knew you’d always have plans if you wanted them then when she actually dumps you …. You don’t really miss her just miss having something to do when all else fails that’s how I feel about storm tracking :lol: ….. by the way I’m a 30yr old man with 4 kids and this was a true story 

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2 hours ago, 85snowline said:

Idea-- stop looking at each new model as the gospel. Its snowing up and down the NC mountains this am. Not sure if that was really in the forecast.  And the gulf moisture is over performing nicely. It is also trending NNE as opposed to Ne or just E. The storm isnt even supposed to crank up until the afternoon and evening so good grief... enjoy the day. And what happens happens... 

Lastly it is JUST Jan 20th. We have 60days where we can see more winter wx. Cheers.

Hahaha. We in the Triangle, do not.

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1 hour ago, PantherJustin said:

Lol I agree….. I feel Like Winter Storm tracking is more fun for me than the actual storm. It reminds me of if you’ve had a girl you were talking to and you guys went out occasionally when you didn’t have anything else to do and you knew you’d always have plans if you wanted them then when she actually dumps you …. You don’t really miss her just miss having something to do when all else fails that’s how I feel about storm tracking :lol: ….. by the way I’m a 30yr old man with 4 kids and this was a true story 

Best story I've heard in awhile! Lol

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9 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I'll go on record saying that storm on the 12z GFS is the biggest/best fantasy storm I've ever seen modeled for South Carolina inside 200 hours. One for the fantasy record books for sure.

I would note, speaking of both ‘93 and ‘96, the big ones usually get locked in early.

Some good anecdotes in the Mid-Atlantic board archives that ‘93 was the best modeled storm in history at the time, and a major achievement in long-range forecasting.

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11 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I'll go on record saying that storm on the 12z GFS is the biggest/best fantasy storm I've ever seen modeled for South Carolina inside 200 hours. One for the fantasy record books for sure.

maybe instead of going from models showing 8+ inches and ending up with 1-2 inches we'll go to models showing 20+ inches and ending up with 4-5!

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7 minutes ago, JoshWeather said:

maybe instead of going from models showing 8+ inches and ending up with 1-2 inches we'll go to models showing 20+ inches and ending up with 4-5!

The truth is, far more often than not, we go from those modeled events to literally a completely non-event…in relation to the latest GFS run posted above.  
 

Not saying it’s impossible or isn’t meteorologically plausible, but simply very low probability; albeit no less fun to look at. It’s the things “wet dreams” are made of for the weather weenie, and sometimes, dreams do come true!  

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Just now, Avdave said:

I just have a bad feeling that being too far west while Raleigh gets a good snow and here by RDU we get shafted. I hope Im wrong, but I have that feeling

As the crow flies, I'm 10 miles SSE of RDU airport, and already seeing a dusting and light snow showers...hopefully the gradient isn't THAT sharp. 

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