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Southern Sanitarium


buckeyefan1
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1 hour ago, KyleEverett said:

Rock Hill and Charlotte are really rough spots to be. So many storms to the west, north, and east of us. :D

I was born and raised in Raleigh, still root for snow in the Triangle too, but I cannot imagine the level of whining if the Triangle folks here had to put up with what we do in Charlotte proper. We've basically had one good storm (that still had mixing issues) in the 11 years I've lived here.

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25 years of development and $10B produced a "model" of physics that can launch the James Webb Telescope (JWT) with laser-like precision nearing it's L2 location 1M miles from Earth after in-flight deployment of over 300 single points of digital and analog failure with each one verifying 100%.

The name of the game whether it be the JWT or weather modeling is understanding and constraining variables.  It is a giant "what-if" challenge which is exactly what we used when I got started with D-size 36x24" teletype weather charts looking only at upstream wx mindful of "if it happened there yesterday what will happen here today or tomorrow."

Sure, forecasts busted but not that much more often as compared to all these decades later worsened by the boldness of model drunk forecasts.

Imperfect modeling has brought present-day forecasting into a chaotic mess just as doppler radar once thought to be a god-send for alerting tornadoes has done just the opposite.

The 70+% false alarm rate (Source: NWS - Huntsville, AL study) of "radar indicated rotation" has only desensitized the public into an apathetic response. 

The Public "hook" and "bow" their fingers to the delete button muttering to themselves or a loved one "it's just those wx nuts hyping another non-event"....until it's not.

When is the last time you heard of a time-sensitive SKYWARN Spotter TOG (tornado on ground) report that made it to mainstream media and to your device which btw likely isn't a SAME weather radio anymore, more likely your smartphone.

Two of North Carolina's largest metropolitan areas (CLT and TRIAD) lost their SKYWARN Nets around the same time in 2020 and most people barely noticed, or cared.

It won't be long before even the NWS becomes a relic which will happen IMO when the private sector (Musk, Bezos, Branson, et al) funds a global wx model that takes the hammer from the toolbelt and drives the forecast nail.

ANONmet_GSO

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19 minutes ago, Anonmet_GSO said:

25 years of development and $10B produced a "model" of physics that can launch the James Webb Telescope (JWT) with laser-like precision nearing it's L2 location 1M miles from Earth after in-flight deployment of over 300 single points of digital and analog failure with each one verifying 100%.

The name of the game whether it be the JWT or weather modeling is understanding and constraining variables.  It is a giant "what-if" challenge which is exactly what we used when I got started with D-size 36x24" teletype weather charts looking only at upstream wx mindful of "if it happened there yesterday what will happen here today or tomorrow."

Sure, forecasts busted but not that much more often as compared to all these decades later worsened by the boldness of model drunk forecasts.

Imperfect modeling has brought present-day forecasting into a chaotic mess just as doppler radar once thought to be a god-send for alerting tornadoes has done just the opposite.

The 70+% false alarm rate (Source: NWS - Huntsville, AL study) of "radar indicated rotation" has only desensitized the public into an apathetic response. 

The Public "hook" and "bow" their fingers to the delete button muttering to themselves or a loved one "it's just those wx nuts hyping another non-event"....until it's not.

When is the last time you heard of a time-sensitive SKYWARN Spotter TOG (tornado on ground) report that made it to mainstream media and to your device which btw likely isn't a SAME weather radio anymore, more likely your smartphone.

Two of North Carolina's largest metropolitan areas (CLT and TRIAD) lost their SKYWARN Nets around the same time in 2020 and most people barely noticed, or cared.

It won't be long before even the NWS becomes a relic which will happen IMO when the private sector (Musk, Bezos, Branson, et al) funds a global wx model that takes the hammer from the toolbelt and drives the forecast nail.

ANONmet_GSO

Def an interesting take. Let's say you become a billionaire. How much would it cost to create a weather model that could rival the Euro or GFS? Wouldn't you also need agreements with governments to get ingest and satellite data? I'd imagine that would be a very very hefty price tag with a lot of red tape just to even get started. It's inevitable though as our climate changes and more catastrophes happen. More money will pump in from the private sector. If my business makes it big I'd def be up for helping fund something like this. 

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6 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

How are they doing in basketball this year, I have barely kept up

I will get Bashed I’m sure….. but the fire everyone losers are out in full force, they lost to Wright St at home (Unacceptable) but also until last night all but 2 games had a lead of 7 or more in second half including being up 15 Vs the then #1 Purdue. A VERY young team with no identity imo there a year or two away from Keatts being on a red hot seat…. Imo you can’t fire him until minimal 2024 bc #7 in the Country Dillingham comitted for 2023 …. I can’t stand the fire everyone State ppl…. Especially Football, Doeron is the best coach we’ve ever had 3(9win seasons) in 5yrs and now #17 in the country in guys drafted since 2018 wth do these ppl want? 

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27 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

I will get Bashed I’m sure….. but the fire everyone losers are out in full force, they lost to Wright St at home (Unacceptable) but also until last night all but 2 games had a lead of 7 or more in second half including being up 15 Vs the then #1 Purdue. A VERY young team with no identity imo there a year or two away from Keatts being on a red hot seat…. Imo you can’t fire him until minimal 2024 bc #7 in the Country Dillingham comitted for 2023 …. I can’t stand the fire everyone State ppl…. Especially Football, Doeron is the best coach we’ve ever had 3(9win seasons) in 5yrs and now #17 in the country in guys drafted since 2018 wth do these ppl want? 

I’m a Carolina fan.  After the butt kicking we got the other night there are a ton of “fire everyone” fans out there.  It was a brutal loss though.  Not as bad as possibly whiffing on this storm though.

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2 hours ago, wake4est said:

I would sell a non-vital organ for the fantasy GFS to verify.

 

FF5DF317-0407-4C60-AADB-6E6B5CD19CE1.png

Half whining half serious question... I understand it is difficult (perhaps impossible) to predict sensible weather 7+ days out.  It doesn't surprise me at all that models spit out a variety of solutions and many are wrong.  But it just seems to me like something has to be broken if your model routinely spits out a scenario that happens on a few times a century.  I guess it doesn't matter because the purpose of these tools is not to predict sensible weather at this range.  

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The Trump Administration approved funding for the next generation NOAA weather forecasting system where the acronyms EPIC and ULS will become better known in the months to come.  

EPIC - Earth Prediction Innovation Center has released their Strategic Plan for the ULS - Unified Forecast System here: https://wpo.noaa.gov/Portals/0/Signed_EpicStrategicPlan2021-0903.pdf?ver=2021-09-29-112701-643

One of my go-to Wx forecasters, Jason Samenow with the Capital Weather Gang is following EPIC's progress evidence by his article here:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/03/04/noaa-supercomputer-upgrade/

Of more interest to my career having spent a couple decades working at Sun Microsystems in our High Performance Computing Center to include a local project ICAR - International Center for Automotive Research - a public/private partnership between Clemson University, BMW, and Michelin largely focused on the static/dynamic forces associated with the study of modeled Computational Fluid Dynamics.

At ICAR's Greenville, SC Computational Center we deployed over 1,000 AMD Opteron CPU "blade servers" earning the site a place on the coveted Top 500 Worldwide Computational Centers....so, I remain on those newsfeeds which brings the topic back to weather and another Sun/ORACLE customer -Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in TN.

What is happening at ORNL is B-I-G in the world of supercomputing with their deployment of HP/Cray infrastructure in partnership with the US Air Force to conduct cloud-based hydrologic modeling.

Of note, the United State's most powerful computational center also is housed at ORNL with the IBM Summit system serving (mostly) biological, celestial, and propulsion studies.  That site is #2 worldwide behind Japan's    Supercomputer Fugaku which is focused mostly on COVID studies.

Video on ORNL's Summit system here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZgzjc33JJs

Hoping for "epic" improvements in future Wx modeling capabilities.

ANONmet_GSO

 

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1 hour ago, Phelps said:

Half whining half serious question... I understand it is difficult (perhaps impossible) to predict sensible weather 7+ days out.  It doesn't surprise me at all that models spit out a variety of solutions and many are wrong.  But it just seems to me like something has to be broken if your model routinely spits out a scenario that happens on a few times a century.  I guess it doesn't matter because the purpose of these tools is not to predict sensible weather at this range.  

Details at range = non important. Pattern, trends, fact it shows a storm = very important. Atmosphere is a river and models predict downstream currents and seeing anything show consistent on a model is gold to hone in on. As for the details (like clown maps, reason we call them clown maps), no model is even half decent until 5 days out. That’s just where we are with technology these days

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