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Western PA/Pittsburgh Spring Discussion 2021


Ahoff
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17 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Those 60s look terrible going into the holiday weekend.

I agree that the timing of cold, rainy weather this month has left much to be desired. And I’m not even sure we’ll make 60 every day next weekend. GFS and Euro have 47 and 53 at 18z Friday, Euro and CMC have 58 and 55 at 18z Saturday, and CMC has 48 at 18z Sunday. The good news for you (and frankly me, as I’d be happier with 70 than either 50 or 90) is that the GFS, which predicted this pattern shift first, gets us back to 70 Sunday afternoon with much more fleeting unseasonable cold.

(Also, PIT officially got to 87 so far today)

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10 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I agree that the timing of cold, rainy weather this month has left much to be desired. And I’m not even sure we’ll make 60 every day next weekend. GFS and Euro have 47 and 53 at 18z Friday, Euro and CMC have 58 and 55 at 18z Saturday, and CMC has 48 at 18z Sunday. The good news for you (and frankly me, as I’d be happier with 70 than either 50 or 90) is that the GFS, which predicted this pattern shift first, gets us back to 70 Sunday afternoon with much more fleeting unseasonable cold.

(Also, PIT officially got to 87 so far today)

If we’re stuck in the 50s Memorial Day weekend it would suck.  And figure, since last summer was so nice and dry, and we really couldn’t do anything with this pandemic.  My worry is that now that we’re able to do much more, our weather will not cooperate and a shitty Memorial Day weekend is the first blow.

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1 minute ago, Ahoff said:

If we’re stuck in the 50s Memorial Day weekend it would suck.  And figure, since last summer was so nice and dry, and we really couldn’t do anything with this pandemic.  My worry is that now that we’re able to do much more, our weather will not cooperate and a shitty Memorial Day weekend is the first blow.

NWS still doesn’t fully believe the hype and still keeps us in the low 70s during that period (albeit with rain, but maybe not a washout). But if this relative consensus among the models holds, we know forecasting 70 with a chance of rain is just the NWS forecasting conservatively and that’ll get revised downward.

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12 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Looks like those pop up storms are setting up to the south.  That batch up in Michigan looks to be the rainmaker here.

Going to be a race to see if that batch makes it here in time to prevent us from officially reaching 2 weeks without measurable rain.

Edit: it didn’t.

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Looks like the airport received 0.02” from that storm (I’m certain I got much more than that in the north hills), so no matter what happens the rest of the day the streak is officially over at 14 days without measurable precip.

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51 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

North hills was a mess this morning with an absolutely ridiculous torrential downpour. 
 

hate days like this where it rains in the morning because we get any sun it becomes extremely humid in the afternoon.

I second that. Dewpoints are already into the upper 60s at PIT and AGC, where it hasn’t rained much yet. Still raining imby.

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12 minutes ago, north pgh said:

3 rumbles of thunder yesterday morning. 1.61 inches of rain. Not your classic thunderstorm but getting closer. Still waiting to see my first flash of lightning. 

I’m thinking yesterday makes the case for having an official observation site closer to the city than what we have now (even if you keep KPIT as the one that goes in the record books). Then again, KAGC also recorded less than a tenth. But the fact remains, hundreds of thousands of people in or near this city saw a deluge on a day when 0.02” of rain officially fell.

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34 minutes ago, donyewest said:

I hope!  Bet we pull the regular hot and humid all day, frontal passage as the sun sets, little widespread rain relief, temps/dew points go down slowly.  The ol' okie-doke.

Oh right, I almost forgot we live in Pittsburgh.

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3 hours ago, TimB84 said:

I’m thinking yesterday makes the case for having an official observation site closer to the city than what we have now (even if you keep KPIT as the one that goes in the record books). Then again, KAGC also recorded less than a tenth. But the fact remains, hundreds of thousands of people in or near this city saw a deluge on a day when 0.02” of rain officially fell.

Being in the City and living near West Mifflin, we saw next nothing.  It was mainly north of the City for sure.

Also, side note, may be the hottest day of the year incoming?

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Just now, Ahoff said:

Being in the City and living near West Mifflin, we saw next nothing.  It was mainly north of the City for sure.

Also, side note, may be the hottest day of the year incoming?

It’s incredible how heavy and localized that rain was. As for today, so far this afternoon it’s been the old “temps stalled at KPIT” story. I do think we get to 87 or 88 (AGC already has), but I thought 90 was a possibility when it was 84 at noon.

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50 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

It’s incredible how heavy and localized that rain was. As for today, so far this afternoon it’s been the old “temps stalled at KPIT” story. I do think we get to 87 or 88 (AGC already has), but I thought 90 was a possibility when it was 84 at noon.

I feel like our best chances to hit 90 are when we are at 86 at noon.  84 is a shot, but 86 at noon seems to be a safe bet to make it to 90 (unless thunderstorms interupt, or heavy clouds).

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2 hours ago, Ahoff said:

I feel like our best chances to hit 90 are when we are at 86 at noon.  84 is a shot, but 86 at noon seems to be a safe bet to make it to 90 (unless thunderstorms interupt, or heavy clouds).

Looks like 87 unless we somehow get past that late. Meaning that’s very likely our high for May.

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Looks like 87 it is.  Will be interesting to see, but I think we end up below average overall for the month.  Today and tomorrow will pull the average closer to normal, Thursday shouldn't have a huge impact, then Friday- Sunday should drag it back down again, and Monday will be near normal.

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10 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Looks like 87 it is.  Will be interesting to see, but I think we end up below average overall for the month.  Today and tomorrow will pull the average closer to normal, Thursday shouldn't have a huge impact, then Friday- Sunday should drag it back down again, and Monday will be near normal.

It’s looking like it could be at least 2 degrees below average. I don’t think it’ll even be close.

Edit: could be a little closer now that Friday looks warmer. Most models get us close to or above 70 with the nasty dewpoints in the mid 60s making a brief return.

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