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  Mesoscale Discussion 0257
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0229 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

   Areas affected...far northern Mississippi into Middle Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 251929Z - 252130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat of severe storms including tornadoes will
   increase by late afternoon into Middle Tennessee and persist through
   the evening. A watch may be issued by 21Z.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis currently shows a warm front into far
   southwestern TN extending east/southeast into northern AL.
   Meanwhile, another warm front extended from the developing surface
   low from southern IL into central KY.

   In between these two fronts, gradual warming is taking place, with
   temperatures now into the low 70s F. MUCAPE currently remains below
   1000 J/kg as a result of dewpoints near 60 F.

   Strengthening 850 mb winds out of the southwest later today should
   aid moisture advection out of MS into Middle TN, with areas of
   heating helping to destabilize as well. Shear will become
   increasingly favorable for tornadic supercells in the 21-03Z time
   frame, and a few tornadoes are anticipated as the mid 60s F
   dewpoints arrive later today. With the more unstable air in place,
   effective SRH may reach 400-500 m2/s2.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 03/25/2021
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32 minutes ago, Utvols235 said:

163dc773685f6bb6e3054b1e9ec17c59.jpg
Nashville folks... thoughts?


.

 Mesoscale Discussion 0257
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0229 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

   Areas affected...far northern Mississippi into Middle Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 251929Z - 252130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat of severe storms including tornadoes will
   increase by late afternoon into Middle Tennessee and persist through
   the evening. A watch may be issued by 21Z.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis currently shows a warm front into far
   southwestern TN extending east/southeast into northern AL.
   Meanwhile, another warm front extended from the developing surface
   low from southern IL into central KY.

   In between these two fronts, gradual warming is taking place, with
   temperatures now into the low 70s F. MUCAPE currently remains below
   1000 J/kg as a result of dewpoints near 60 F.

   Strengthening 850 mb winds out of the southwest later today should
   aid moisture advection out of MS into Middle TN, with areas of
   heating helping to destabilize as well. Shear will become
   increasingly favorable for tornadic supercells in the 21-03Z time
   frame, and a few tornadoes are anticipated as the mid 60s F
   dewpoints arrive later today. With the more unstable air in place,
   effective SRH may reach 400-500 m2/s2.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 03/25/2021
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Mesoscale Discussion 0257  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK  0229 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021  Areas affected...far northern Mississippi into Middle Tennessee  Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely   Valid 251929Z - 252130Z  Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent  SUMMARY...The threat of severe storms including tornadoes will  increase by late afternoon into Middle Tennessee and persist through  the evening. A watch may be issued by 21Z.  DISCUSSION...Surface analysis currently shows a warm front into far  southwestern TN extending east/southeast into northern AL.  Meanwhile, another warm front extended from the developing surface  low from southern IL into central KY.  In between these two fronts, gradual warming is taking place, with  temperatures now into the low 70s F. MUCAPE currently remains below  1000 J/kg as a result of dewpoints near 60 F.  Strengthening 850 mb winds out of the southwest later today should  aid moisture advection out of MS into Middle TN, with areas of  heating helping to destabilize as well. Shear will become  increasingly favorable for tornadic supercells in the 21-03Z time  frame, and a few tornadoes are anticipated as the mid 60s F  dewpoints arrive later today. With the more unstable air in place,  effective SRH may reach 400-500 m2/s2.  ..Jewell/Hart.. 03/25/2021


I give them some credit. They do a good job of explaining what’s going on to the average person. Although in this situation (as well as some other situations) their arrogance comes back to bite them. As soon as they post that the SPC says we are right in the thick of it.


.
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To think in high risk outlook in MS nothing again.  To me we’ve got a long ways to go to ever understanding weather.  I wonder if SPC throws out too many warnings and watches too easily. 
Warnings are real-time as cells evolve. Meso scale discussions and lead time watches are warranted based on synoptic reasoning and conditions that have been suggested by high res modeling and severe parameters. Two seperate entities. Too early to downplay threats when it's not even 22z yet for central areas.
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3 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
12 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:
To think in high risk outlook in MS nothing again.  To me we’ve got a long ways to go to ever understanding weather.  I wonder if SPC throws out too many warnings and watches too easily. 

Warnings are real-time as cells evolve. Meso scale discussions and lead time watches are warranted based on synoptic reasoning and conditions that have been suggested by high res modeling and severe parameters. Two seperate entities. Too early to downplay threats when it's not even 22z yet for central areas.

Understand but anything happening in MS is slim.  I wonder if our Hi res models need a reset.  If this underperforms which would be great.  Then something is wrong with our forecasting.  Chances of people taking any other threats this spring seriously is greatly diminished.

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20z update from SPC

...20Z Update...
Primary change with this update was to begin trimming severe
probabilities from the west across the lower MS Valley. As low-level
flow continues to veer over this region, the best severe potential
should shift into AL and vicinity through the remainder of the
afternoon and early evening. For more information on the near-term
severe threat across far eastern MS into northern/central AL, see
Mesoscale Discussion 256. Strong, long-track tornadoes still appear
likely across this region through the evening.

Farther north, additional convection should form later this
afternoon and evening across parts of western/middle TN and the mid
MS Valley as a warm front continues to lift northward and a
shortwave trough moves over these regions. All severe hazards appear
possible, including the potential for strong tornadoes given the
strength of the low-level flow/shear. A severe threat should
continue this evening into tonight across the lower OH Valley. For
more information on the short-term severe threat across
western/middle TN


.

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Tornado Watch Number 51
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   345 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Southern Illinois
     Southern Indiana
     Western and Central Kentucky
     Southeast Missouri
     Northeast Mississippi
     Western and Middle Tennessee

   * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until
     1100 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely
     Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
       mph likely
     Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
       to 2 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify this afternoon
   from southern Illinois southward into west Tennessee and track
   across the watch area.  Rapidly strengthening winds aloft will
   increase the risk of damaging winds, large hail, and a few
   tornadoes.
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Mesoscale Discussion 0260
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0431 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

   Areas affected...northern GA...eastern TN...far western NC...extreme
   upstate SC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 252131Z - 252330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A risk for severe thunderstorms, including the threat for
   a couple of tornadoes, will likely develop over the next several
   hours across northern GA and eastern TN.  The risk will eventually
   spread east into parts of the far western Carolinas later this
   evening.  The timing of an eventual watch issuance is a bit
   uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a broad rain shield across the
   southern Appalachians as of 2130 UTC.  A supercell over northwestern
   GA, on the southern flank of the rain shield, will continue to move
   east-northeast over northern GA the early evening hours.  The
   airmass across the southern Appalachians is currently
   rain-cooled/stable but a strong moisture flux/destabilization will
   likely occur during the evening hours.  The richer low-level
   moisture will likely reside across northern GA where lower 60s F
   dewpoints are currently observed/expected this evening.  In addition
   to hail/wind risks with a supercell threat gradually spreading
   northeastward into the area, a tornado or two is possible this
   evening/tonight.  For parts of southeast/eastern TN, the severe
   threat will likely depend on storm development from the
   west/southwest eventually moving into the region later this evening.
   The expected timing of the risk will likely be delayed but begin in
   a few hours.
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  • Mr Bob unpinned this topic

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