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Central PA - Spring 2021


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I agree with those decrying the spottiness of todays storms, although someone should see at least some marginal severe activity out of it.  CTP's thoughts....

As a tongue of higher, deep-layer moisture moves in from
the Ohio Valley later this morning through this afternoon.
Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will develop, and move
east across the Alleghenies toward the noon hour. This
convection will increase in intensity and coverage as it moves
east across the Central Ridge and Valley region of the state
this afternoon. Some of the thunderstorms could become severe
with hail and brief, localized strong downburst wind gusts of 50
to 60 mph possible.

Latest 26/00Z HREF supports increasing convection beneath the
favorable right entrance region of a 90 kt upper level jet
located over southern Ontario and Quebec. Convection- allowing
guidance supports mostly discrete convection, as the strongest
low level convergence remains over the Grt Lks with surface cold
front and possibly over eastern Pa with pre-frontal trough.
However, backing deep layer shear vectors may transition the
event into line segments with some possible broken-s radar
signatures associated with localized strong wind gusts where the
shear can become nearly orthogonal with the line segments.

SPC has expanded the SLGT risk to cover all of PA for this
afternoon and early evening.

Model soundings indicate mixing will result in falling surface
dewpoints in the afternoon across much of the area, so
anticipate CAPE only in the 500-1000 range for much of the
region. The exception could be over the eastern counties, where
there is enhanced southerly flow/moisture advection ahead of
pre-frontal trough.
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Just wanted to stop by and say good luck to everyone today. I think anyone in the CTP CWA and north of the turnpike in PHI's area looks good so far. Early clouds seem to be burning off or almost gone. The cell near Greensburg, PA already is dropping CG in an environment that is pretty meh...a good sign for central and eastern PA.

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Yes it is. Storms seem to have pretty good forward motion coming out of western PA. 

The ones moving into CTP now seem to really want to form a line. Still discrete cells out west.

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1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

The ones moving into CTP now seem to really want to form a line. Still discrete cells out west.

Not a severe expert by any means - isn't that somewhat the opposite of what normally happens? I'm used to discreet cells forming in ADVANCE of a line, not the other way around). Unless I'm mistaken. 

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Not a severe expert by any means - isn't that somewhat the opposite of what normally happens? I'm used to discreet cells forming in ADVANCE of a line, not the other way around). Unless I'm mistaken. 

Instability was garbage here this morning. Sun came out and temp jumped from 78 to 83 in an hour. I’m no expert either, but I wonder if that plays a role.

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13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Not a severe expert by any means - isn't that somewhat the opposite of what normally happens? I'm used to discreet cells forming in ADVANCE of a line, not the other way around). Unless I'm mistaken. 

If you want severe, you don’t want a line ahead. It kills any instability.  

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10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Can't the first line become severe? Seems like any first line will be here during a favorable part of the day.

This should help. It's a VERY good primer on severe wx for imo, esp for idiots like myself! http://thevane.gawker.com/what-is-a-supercell-thunderstorm-1564133584 

The front line def can but the chances of that are less than discrete cells popping due to instability. 

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3 minutes ago, canderson said:

@Itstrainingtime I should clarify - I'm talking mostly about tornadic or large hail creation storms. Lines definitely can pop, but you usually need discrete for the real scary stuff (Derichos and the like notwithstanding!). 

The stuff out west isn't lining up really, so someone will get some severe wx around here. 

It was a good read, easy to understand with helpful graphics. Appreciate you posting the link! 

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Man, lots of clearing here in the warm sector today, pap is sittin at 91!  I'm tellin ya boys, with my low lying location off the ridge whenever we get any type of southerly flow I get hot hot.  Some of the guidance has suggested our best shot down this way might not be until later this evening, hard to say but hoping for something exciting to happen, environment sure seems ripe.  Looking forward to any reports from the western folks, as things seem to be lighting up out that way.

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