jojo762 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 28 minutes ago, Quincy said: Shawn Milrad tipped us off to the EML showing up via 00z sounding from LZK/Little Rock... Good ole Shawn has had his Twitter account on private for ages... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 15 minutes ago, brianc33710 said: Lolol that's Spann's way of saying/identifying he's 1 of us! He definitely doesn't intend to "degrade" fellow weather enthusiasts! Very few meteorologists in the US puts forth as much effort as James Spann to personally interact with his followers/fans/viewers. Edit to add about Spann's almost unprecedented efforts to engage with his viewers. Spann has his upside and downside, but the man knows his landmarks and local geography to an unbelievable extent....and I’m almost certain these details save some people’s lives in crunch time. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 If you want a good idea of what our lapse rates are going to be looking like tomorrow, take a peak at the MAF and DRT 00z RAOBs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Anyone checked the top CIPS analog recently? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 CIPS analogs deep into weenie territory now, but the pre-frontal signal for long track tornadoes in the MS/AL vicinity has been very consistent. It also aligns closely to a blend of CAMs. I won’t mention the top analog, but I will say the forecast LLJ tomorrow at 00z is stronger than any of the 15 analogs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 This might be of interest to some, but Broyles will be doing the 06z D1 update. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, jojo762 said: This might be of interest to some, but Broyles will be doing the 06z D1 update. inb4 60% sig /s 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, jojo762 said: This might be of interest to some, but Broyles will be doing the 06z D1 update. The man, the myth, the legend. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 13 minutes ago, jojo762 said: This might be of interest to some, but Broyles will be doing the 06z D1 update. Welp time to break out this old gem. https://youtu.be/Keu8J9WgvzQ 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 HRRR seems to be becoming progressively **less messy with each run. Not a good trend. If it means anything to you, 04z HRRR also pops a 200+ mile long UH track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 the HRRR is looking so much cleaner now that it's seeing the EML compared to the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 High risk it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 high risk -- dammit i got beat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Just now, yoda said: High risk it is 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 Just now, yoda said: You can't be a true avocado unless you have a pink center 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Broyles mentions violent long-track tornadoes will be possible. Even name checks STP increasing to ten. Not sure how often I’ve seen violent long-track tornadoes or STP mentioned in an outlook discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 large 45% hatched wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 and 30% tor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Zoomed in on Alabama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Normally you see forecast soundings like this localized along a warm front or at the triple point, but almost never do you see something like this taking shape over an entire region. Click anywhere from the KY/TN border down to I-20 and you're gonna get something that looks like this. These are the types of environments that produce violent tornadoes, and the spatial expanse of this type of environment tomorrow is nothing short of jaw dropping. Barring slowed warm front progression or storm mode concerns, I just don't see how we get away from this event unscathed. This is a totally different animal from last wednesday. Not even comparable. As such, if confidence increases, I wouldn't be surprised to see the high stretch in that area from the I-20 corridor to the KY/TN border. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Sorry for the drive-by as I have been focusing on the impacts of this rapidly deepening surface low in my local area, but agree with the consensus here... this setup looks like big problems, and I'll be surprised if we're debating a high risk bust this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sakau2007 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Sorry for the drive-by as I have been focusing on the impacts of this rapidly deepening surface low in my local area, but agree with the consensus here... this setup looks like big problems, and I'll be surprised if we're debating a high risk bust this time. I'm pretty sure there has not been a high risk issued in the history of high risks where people think we will be debating the busts in 24 hours time. That's kinda the point of the high risk -- the numbers are maxed out so the high risk goes up. Just my .02. I'm still not completely overwhelmed by this setup, but the very high significant tornado index numbers across parts of AL/TN are certainly eyebrow raising. I'll be surprised if we make it through today without an EF3 somewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 After the brief lull at 00Z, the HRRR is back to apocalypse mode. Pretty scary convergence of model guidance on what looks like a a worst case scenario... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: After the brief lull at 00Z, the HRRR is back to apocalypse mode. Pretty scary convergence of model guidance on what looks like a a worst case scenario... So what is the ceiling here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Chip said: So what is the ceiling here? The ceiling is certainly a historic, and unfortunately destructive and deadly, outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 Both the 7z hrrr and the latest 11z hrrr... yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Just now, Bob's Burgers said: Both the 7z hrrr and the latest 11z hrrr... yikes All of the latest ones are pretty darn concerning, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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