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Severe Event March 25th 2021


Bob's Burgers
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Just now, TexMexWx said:

I literally wasted 15 minutes trying to figure out why this shows up when I try to pull a sounding from the vicinity of a supercell near the MS/AL/TN intersection from your 21z image... why the heck am I getting a GDPS sounding and why the heck is this what it's showing :wacko:

what.jpg

You have to pay for those soundings/pivotal weather plus

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12 minutes ago, Mrklem10 said:

Check James Spann's Twitter.... 

I grew up watching Spann but I can’t stand him now.  For whatever reason he’s started calling weather enthusiasts “weather nerds, dweebs, dorks, weenies” it’s a bit much.  His climate change denial doesn’t help either.

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I grew up watching Spann but I can’t stand him now.  For whatever reason he’s started calling weather enthusiasts “weather nerds, dweebs, dorks, weenies” it’s a bit much.  His climate change denial doesn’t help either.
He's not saying weenies, etc in a bad way, lol. Hell, we call ourselves that anyway.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

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Anyone want to make predictions for tomorrow basing off of forecast guidance/gut feeling?

I’d personally go with dozens of tornadoes (take that as you will as far as raw #s) and several intense, long-tracking tornadoes.

I think we’ll have a mix between messy and several intense supercells. Sort of like the convective evolution of last week EXCEPT supercells/tornadoes will likely be much more intense. In my mind, even a messier outcome tomorrow still yields quite a few tornadoes, whereas a higher-end solution yields numerous intense tornadoes across a very large area (maybe super-outbreak type stuff??). Altogether think we’ll meet in the middle of the two. This will be a noteworthy day/analog to mention in the future, regardless of what happens (bust or outbreak).

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Just now, jojo762 said:

Anyone want to make predictions for tomorrow basing off of forecast guidance/gut feeling?

I’d personally go with dozens of tornadoes (take that as you will as far as raw #s) and several intense, long-tracking tornadoes.

I think we’ll have a mix between messy and several intense supercells. Sort of like the convective evolution of last week EXCEPT supercells/tornadoes will likely be much more intense. In my mind, even a messier outcome tomorrow still yields quite a few tornadoes, whereas a higher-end solution yields numerous intense tornadoes across a very large area (maybe super-outbreak type stuff??). Altogether think we’ll meet in the middle of the two. This will be a noteworthy day/analog to mention in the future, regardless of what happens (bust or outbreak).

My gut says something similar to last Wednesday. I could be very far off, but with latest hrrr, that’s my guess.

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1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

Anyone want to make predictions for tomorrow basing off of forecast guidance/gut feeling?

I’d personally go with dozens of tornadoes (take that as you will as far as raw #s) and several intense, long-tracking tornadoes.

I think we’ll have a mix between messy and several intense supercells. Sort of like the convective evolution of last week EXCEPT supercells/tornadoes will likely be much more intense. In my mind, even a messier outcome tomorrow still yields quite a few tornadoes, whereas a higher-end solution yields numerous intense tornadoes across a very large area (maybe super-outbreak type stuff??). Altogether think we’ll meet in the middle of the two. This will be a noteworthy day/analog to mention in the future, regardless of what happens (bust or outbreak).

This is exactly what I'm going with.  Maybe with a cursory nod toward something a bit bigger.  Tomorrow just has that "Gonna be a bad day" taste in my mouth, ominous and stark.  I know gut feelings are worth less than the HRRR on a bad day, but still.

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7 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Anyone want to make predictions for tomorrow basing off of forecast guidance/gut feeling?

I’d personally go with dozens of tornadoes (take that as you will as far as raw #s) and several intense, long-tracking tornadoes.

I think we’ll have a mix between messy and several intense supercells. Sort of like the convective evolution of last week EXCEPT supercells/tornadoes will likely be much more intense. In my mind, even a messier outcome tomorrow still yields quite a few tornadoes, whereas a higher-end solution yields numerous intense tornadoes across a very large area (maybe super-outbreak type stuff??). Altogether think we’ll meet in the middle of the two. This will be a noteworthy day/analog to mention in the future, regardless of what happens (bust or outbreak).

I’m thinking a storm reports map similar to 4/28/14 with maybe a little more action into TN. Overall pretty aligned with your thinking. Praying for as little loss of life and property as possible. 

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16 minutes ago, vman722 said:

I’m thinking a storm reports map similar to 4/28/14 with maybe a little more action into TN. Overall pretty aligned with your thinking. Praying for as little loss of life and property as possible. 

For reference that day was very prolific... and didn’t get upgraded to a high risk until the 20z update.

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1 hour ago, ATDoel said:

I grew up watching Spann but I can’t stand him now.  For whatever reason he’s started calling weather enthusiasts “weather nerds, dweebs, dorks, weenies” it’s a bit much.  His climate change denial doesn’t help either.

Lolol that's Spann's way of saying/identifying he's 1 of us! He definitely doesn't intend to "degrade" fellow weather enthusiasts!

Very few meteorologists in the US puts forth as much effort as James Spann to personally interact with his followers/fans/viewers. I will say the same about Denis Phillips who happens to work at Tampa Bay's ABC affiliate. Phillips also wears trademark suspenders since being the 1st met to make the call in 2004 that Charley would make the sharp turn to the right, taking it in over Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda instead of coming in as a Cat 4 into Tampa Bay proper. 

Edit to add about Spann's almost unprecedented efforts to engage with his viewers. 

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