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Upstate/Eastern New York


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The cold air that will be in place over the area on Thursday looks
to play a fairly large role in the evolution of the next system to
affect our area on Friday. Some phasing of the northern and southern
stream looks to occur as the next nearly closed 500 hPa low advances
into the Great Lakes on Friday. With the aforementioned jet phasing
starting to occur, the right entrance region of an upper jet streak
looks to track across northern Ohio and northern Pennsylvania. This
sets up the corridor of low level convergence and associated 850 hPa
frontal zone to our south. As a result, ascent across our area will
generally be strongest from the southern shore of Lake Ontario and
southward during the daytime on Friday. Further, ascent looks to be
primarily stratiform in nature, so all signs are pointing to a
prolonged light to moderate rainfall for all points south of the
south shore of Lake Ontario that is likely to last at least through
the daytime Friday...if not into Friday night.

While northerly flow will hold temperatures back on Thursday,
abundant clouds and steady rainfall seem poised to really chop back
at temperature expectations on Friday. While MOS guidance favors mid
50s for much of the area on Friday, actually model 2 meter
temperatures are far more pessimistic. While it would only take a
few minutes of sun to bust the forecast in an upward direction, it
seems highly unlikely we will see much/any sun on Friday other than
in the North Country. As a result, for most of western New York, the
western Southern Tier, and northern Finger Lakes, temperatures in
the mid 40s to near 50 are about all we are likely to muster.
Farther north, more dry air will play in the favor of far lower
chances of rainfall in the Watertown area, and likewise, with a bit
better chance of sunshine, temperatures will likewise be able to
increase a tad...though still remain well below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Much drier air moves into the area into the weekend. Even as this
occurs, and the attendant sunshine returns, temperatures aloft will
not be poised to increase all that rapidly. However, sunshine will
result in better mixing profiles, so the +2 to +6C off the deck
through the weekend should allow temperatures to gradually return to
the 60s. Even still, this is several degrees below normal. It won`t
be until the start of the new week that we will even begin to
approach normal values for high temperatures as generally dry
conditions look set to resume/persist across the Great Lakes.
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The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Eastern Wayne County in western New York...
  Cayuga County in central New York...
  Southwestern Oswego County in central New York...

* Until 100 PM EDT..

* At 1159 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Chimney
  Bluffs State Park, or 14 miles southwest of Fair Haven Beach State
  Park, moving east at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Oswego, Fulton, Fair Haven Beach State Park, Lyons, Central Square,
  Chimney Bluffs State Park, Mexico Point State Park, Nine Mile
  Point, Battle Island State Park and Scriba

 

278665173_KTYX-PrecipitationDepiction12_

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I put one bag in a week usually depending on when I test the water. Do you use test strips? 

Yes I use test strips. I just use the 3” chlorine disks, 1-2 a week in the skimmer and 1-2 a week in a pool floater. Got a 40 pound bucket at Sam’s club for $99. Should last me all summer. 

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