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Upstate/Eastern New York


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Nearing 60 degrees in Sizzlecuse. Per usual, temps over-performing here and warmer than almost everywhere else in the state. Seriously, the only time we stay below "the forecast high" is if the cloud cover is so thick and dark. Otherwise, it seems like a continuing of a rapidly warming Syracuse.

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3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Snowing in CPA..

 

Screenshot_20210509-141029.png

I lived 10 miles west of that location in DuBois for several years. That specific location is located at 2200' asl and the locals call it "Clearfield Mountain." It's one of those spots that has an extreme microclimate. Very interesting weather location!

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SAY IT'S NOT SNOW...AGAIN!!! Attached picture is the current view from the Addison, NY mesonet obervation station in Southern Steuben County. Elevation here is 1,665 feet and in the higher elevations in western Steuben County (above 2K feet) it has been snowing for a couple of hours now.
Is there snow falling where you are located? If so, post a picture below as well as your location and estimated elevation if you have it.89F62470-51B0-4850-9DF7-57B5E10F2C3B.thumb.jpeg.31789a3f598fa6a5095aa2d433463d39.jpeg
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A closed mid-level low and associated trough axis will move from the
Lower Great Lakes on Tuesday to New England Tuesday night. This will
bring the core of the cold air aloft across the area, along with
increasing cloud cover and a risk of showers starting Tuesday
afternoon. Moisture from the shortwave and steep lapse rates will
not only support rain showers, but there also may be some graupel
with any heavier showers. By Tuesday evening, 850 mb temperatures
down to -4c which may even support some snow showers, especially
across the higher terrain of the Western Southern Tier and Tug Hill.
Rain and snow showers will taper off after midnight with the
departure of the shortwave. Otherwise, this will maintain the cool
weather pattern with highs on Tuesday only in the mid 40s to around
50 and lows in the 30s Tuesday night. Winds will limit the potential
for frost, but the cooler valleys across the Southern Tier may get
close to freezing.
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LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Warming trend to continue during this period with temps actually
nearing climo as we head towards the weekend.

The vast majority of the period will be dry, however a weak mid-
level trough will move through the area Friday and Saturday which
may produce an isolated shower during the afternoon and evening
hours. The bright spot is that there is increasing confidence in
warmer weather for the weekend with highs in the 60s.
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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Buffalo saw the lowest increase in yearly snowfall out of the great lakes and northeast. 

Buffalo, NY: +0.7"

Rochester NY +2.5"

Syracuse NY +4.0"

Chicago, IL: +2.1"

Detroit, MI: +2.5"

Grand Rapids, MI: +2.6"

New York City, NY: +4.0"

Flint, MI: +4.7"

Boston, MA: +5.4"

Hartford, CT: +11.2"

Pittsburgh, PA +2.7"

That Hartford number is insane. That was almost 30% increase of their 40” a year average. 

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Frost advisories issued for this evening..

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures in the low to mid 30s will result in frost
  formation.

* WHERE...All of western and north central New York.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if
  left uncovered.

Screenshot_20210510-131655.png.673b77869

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17 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Yeah, just had something fall with some rain, seemed like sleet not graupel and doubt it was tiny hail as it was light....temps significantly dropped. 

 

I saw it out the window, thought it looked like grauple but I didn't get outside to feel it.

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Diurnally driven instability showers will dot the radar away from
the lakes through the remainder of the afternoon, with a few showers
producing graupel in a few spots. The main area of these showers are
currently over WNY and from I90 southward. Temperatures are in the
low to mid 40s for the higher terrain and where cool rain showers
have recently occurred. For the lower elevations and areas closer to
the lakes, temperatures are currently in the mid to upper 40s.

A relatively sharp trough will drop through the forecast area this
evening into the overnight. This feature will generate some showers
for sites mainly east of Rochester...although just about anyone
could experience a shower before 2 AM. Lows tonight will be in the
mid to upper 30s for most areas.

Expansive high pressure centered over the Upper Great lakes will
promote fair weather Wednesday and Wednesday night. High
temperatures for Wednesday, warm almost 10 degrees from Tuesday
temperatures into the upper 50s to around 60 for most area, with
some mid 50s for the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will support mainly fair dry weather through the
period...while temperatures will slowly moderate back to near normal
levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low amplitude ridging will continue to provide fair weather to the
region for Sunday...then a broad storm system advancing from the Mid
western states could bring us some showers for the start of the work
week. Scenario supported by the Canadian NH...as per the NBM.

Temps this period will average near...to just above...normal values
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