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With a last gasp effort, winter 20-21 refuses to give up the ghost


moneypitmike
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21 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

People here were talking warning amounts....massive busts, biggest of the winter for many. Tried to tell em

I left the door open for maybe a 5% chance at a monster ocean low if the storm fully phased but yeah without a phase we weren’t getting those warning amounts. The snow maps are garbage, the setup was always marginal and even if we got a late partial phase even the more aggressive models didn’t favor anything more than 2-4/3-6 (those 6+ amounts were bullshit due to marginal temps holding down ratios). Even I had (relatively) low expectations for this storm, which is not a good sign if your looking for a big storm, as im not exactly known as a conservative forecaster. I still busted high as many areas including mine didn’t get a flake, but at least in the short range this was one of my better forecasts. No phasing+marginal temps in late March screams lean low on snowfall amounts.
 

 

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5 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I am in a little more rural area than you so spring is the time when I can experience nice weather and no bugs yet.   Plus I don’t really like high heat.

Agreed on all counts.  And while this month is running slightly BN for temps (though soon to be AN), it's going to be the sunniest March by far of my 23 here.  For 1999-2020 March has averaged 8.6 sunny days.  Today is #12 this month and the most so far (14 in 2015) should be passed early next week.  Hope this doesn't presage a pattern switch to cold mank for April-May.

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3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ginx said the 28th I believe. Scoots had the 30th thru Napril 4th

Eh the model guidance has the polar vortex over the North Pole with above average temps during that time frame. If anything that favors 70s like we had earlier in the month.

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4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Man that would be epic.

I’ll take my 17” and be satisfied. That would put an exclamation point on this season, and shoot it into an “A” status here for sure.  
 

 April ‘82 esque.... but that was even more snow and anomalous. What a blast that was. 

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8 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Say wut

 

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That’s gfs guidance. I don’t use the gfs at all when making my forecasts, often I won’t even look at it. I prefer a 80/20 European Canadian blend in the long range (still too far out for the Navy, that’s more of a mid range model). The European and Canadian guidance have the polar vortex parked over the North Pole. Even that if that gfs run was right the polar vortex is still parked over the North Pole in that image. When I see a polar vortex parked over the North Pole I will always go with the warmer guidance and even that might be underdone, as the pattern favors warmth. 70s would not be surprising at all, I would say based on the blend of models I look it we are likely going to see a solid week+ of 60s with a couple of days soaring well into the 70s. When there is a atmospheric driver in place like a polar vortex over the North Pole that tends to dominate the pattern, an ensemble mean will smooth that out in the long range and as we approach the target time period will likely correct warmer. 

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2 hours ago, George001 said:

That’s gfs guidance. I don’t use the gfs at all when making my forecasts, often I won’t even look at it. I prefer a 80/20 European Canadian blend in the long range (still too far out for the Navy, that’s more of a mid range model). The European and Canadian guidance have the polar vortex parked over the North Pole. Even that if that gfs run was right the polar vortex is still parked over the North Pole in that image. When I see a polar vortex parked over the North Pole I will always go with the warmer guidance and even that might be underdone, as the pattern favors warmth. 70s would not be surprising at all, I would say based on the blend of models I look it we are likely going to see a solid week+ of 60s with a couple of days soaring well into the 70s. When there is a atmospheric driver in place like a polar vortex over the North Pole that tends to dominate the pattern, an ensemble mean will smooth that out in the long range and as we approach the target time period will likely correct warmer. 

Where is the polar vortex again?

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