WeatherX Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 18 GFS has gone to the Euro OP solution all week. Upper levels are impressive especially at h7..... It just looks a bit messy...it's literally a heart beat away from a Bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This I agree with.....in general, but we will see some run-to-run fluctuation. Yes. Hopefully the 00z suite will go west again to show us that 18z wasn't a fluke. What I really would like to see tonight though is a huge shift in the NAM. It concerns me that it is SO far east. If the GFS has the storm down to 964 at 96 hours, what would the NAM have it down to? 940? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinWX Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 wow...958mb on the 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 You're right. How about, the trend east has stopped? No doubt if you took the mean of all models the 12z will be the furthest east. The come narrowed by hundreds of miles. I see two strong possible changes one to a curler up here/bomb like earlier progs down the coast....models lost the feature due to speed and are now readjusting or we see a similar outcome to the gfs ens Ec ens gfs 18z etc around the bm as it gets loose. A loose bm. Barring a catastrophic fail the bomb Tucking in down sw is done I think. But geez models are all over the place including the Ec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yes. Hopefully the 00z suite will go west again to show us that 18z wasn't a fluke. What I really would like to see tonight though is a huge shift in the NAM. It concerns me that it is SO far east. If the GFS has the storm down to 964 at 96 hours, what would the NAM have it down to? 940? I don't care what the NAM does, at this point to be frank; I'm quite confident that a EURO\GFS blend is the route to go here. I expected the GFS to shake hands with the EURO at 18z and it did; all I needed to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It just looks a bit messy...it's literally a heart beat away from a Bomb That's the scary thing. All the posts today from the 12z runs were awful. I was glad I was not around for that debacle. My hope is the 18z GFS is a start back west in the models for us. I guess we'll know if a few short hours. There are enough of the ensembles to the west of the mean to keep that option open. And the converse is true, there could be an adjustment east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I think if the PAC jet is like a few kilometers/hour slower in the NW tonight on the 0Z's, we might be in Biz.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 That's the scary thing. All the posts today from the 12z runs were awful. I was glad I was not around for that debacle. My hope is the 18z GFS is a start back west in the models for us. I guess we'll know if a few short hours. There are enough of the ensembles to the west of the mean to keep that option open. And the converse is true, there could be an adjustment east. I just want warning criteria, at this point and I think that is a realisitc goal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I just want warning criteria, at this point and I think that is a realisitc goal. I think your odds are 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I just want warning criteria, at this point and I think that is a realisitc goal. I think I'm in the same camp. It's more realistic for you attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I think your odds are 50/50. Agree 100%...I'd probably hedge toward making it with a gun to my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I think I'm in the same camp. It's more realistic for you attm. Yeah I like where I am too attm. The good thing is that we just need 50-75 miles and were talking a 12+ for our areas and most of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 wow...958mb on the 18z gfs Drops to 954mb at hr96! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 When you go from the euphoria of 24" down to the depths of hellish depression with 0" and sunny skies, a nice warning-criteria storm looks plenty appealing. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Drops to 954mb at hr96! So that's like, what, a category 3? Will Josh do any chasing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Agree 100%...I'd probably hedge toward making it with a gun to my head. ouch! I think we're looking at better than 50% for you. but not by much. You were nearly in warning criteria for the last storm and this one the cone is much smaller. It's developing form the west side of Florida and if given the past track, there's a chance it could hook back in. Not to mention they prolly won't be as gun shy this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah I like where I am too attm. The good thing is that we just need 50-75 miles and were talking a 12+ for our areas and most of SNE I think the GFS actually gives me like 8"......my ratio must be about 12:1, I would have to think......~ .6" qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 ouch! I think we're looking at better than 50% for you. but not by much. You were nearly in warning criteria for the last storm and this one the cone is much smaller. It's developing form the west side of Florida and if given the past track, there's a chance it could hook back in. Not to mention they prolly won't be as gun shy this time around. Not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Just watched/participated in Matt Noyes' 640 live chat...he basically thinks the ggem's on crack and seems pretty bullish about the storm overall; thinks the pattern favors underdone QPF up until the storm arrives with the potential for a more NW track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 i think just looking back historically, the north shore usually has a secondary maxima when the south shore does. What does that mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 What does that mean? Because both are prone to ocean enhancement and are often in the same zone of coastal front enhancement. Maxima means "jackpot". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 What does that mean? Jackpots for snowfall amounts. Banding OES ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 Just watched/participated in Matt Noyes' 640 live chat...he basically thinks the ggem's on crack and seems pretty bullish about the storm overall; thinks the pattern favors underdone QPF up until the storm arrives with the potential for a more NW track Absofreakinglutely...the setup favors an adjust NW not east..and we saw that starting with the Euro ens today.. I think a track over or 25-50 miles west is more likely than 1 east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Just watched/participated in Matt Noyes' 640 live chat...he basically thinks the ggem's on crack and seems pretty bullish about the storm overall; thinks the pattern favors underdone QPF up until the storm arrives with the potential for a more NW track same here. iasked the question about connecticut and i was surprised for him to say that we had a great chance in SE CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Not even close. +/- 50 miles, I'd consider that close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Because both are prone to ocean enhancement and are often in the same zone of coastal front enhancement. Maxima means "jackpot". Jackpots for snowfall amounts. Banding OES ... Thanks guys. That works for me since I am in Danvers...although I imagine a lot will change between now and then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I'm running the grids on computer and wil try to get some closeup graphics between now and next year. This I can do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 What models show this? SATURDAY NIGHT...AT THIS POINT...SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS STREAM N AS LOW PRES MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. A FEW MODELS HINTING AT BRINGING SOME OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Pre synoptic OE snows for the eastern MA shoreline, kind of shades of Jan 2005? Just not as cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Absofreakinglutely...the setup favors an adjust NW not east..and we saw that starting with the Euro ens today.. I think a track over or 25-50 miles west is more likely than 1 east to be fair you were saying that with the last storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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