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The Post Christmas storm threat is still vey real


Damage In Tolland

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If the Euro does happen to come in further east than I would definitely think that is a cause for at least some concern but until the euro comes in my entire stance on this potential has not really changed. I prefer to wait until the entire set of models come out before making an opinion...not really a good idea to change your thoughts or base your thoughts until you have reviewed everything. If the Euro continues to hold steady I will continue to feel on the confident side.

Agreed, if it does move far east, then there may be a problem. I think people also ignore our posts about the ensembles. I even mentioned how I was still concerned the euro ensembles were pretty far east of the op run, yesterday. Kind of a red flag.

However, as we always say...lets see what happens for the rest of the afternoon before people start plunging.

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Agreed, if it does move far east, then there may be a problem. I think people also ignore our posts about the ensembles. I even mentioned how I was still concerned the euro ensembles were pretty far east of the op run, yesterday. Kind of a red flag.

However, as we always say...lets see what happens for the rest of the afternoon before people start plunging.

Its actually pretty amazing how close the 00z Euro ensemble mean is to the 12z GFS ensemble mean...both argue for a track just barely outside the benchmark...which argues for a pretty decent event for the eastern half of SNE. Potentially still major.

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Its actually pretty amazing how close the 00z Euro ensemble mean is to the 12z GFS ensemble mean...both argue for a track just barely outside the benchmark...which argues for a pretty decent event for the eastern half of SNE. Potentially still major.

Will--how did the 12z gfs ensemble mean compare to the 00 and 06 counterparts?

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Its actually pretty amazing how close the 00z Euro ensemble mean is to the 12z GFS ensemble mean...both argue for a track just barely outside the benchmark...which argues for a pretty decent event for the eastern half of SNE. Potentially still major.

Bingo! And fwiw...the ensembles (GFS) are not much changed from 0Z/6Z. But folks like the OP, it comes in earliest. And while I'm emotionally invested, my existence is actually based in reality. If we don't get a storm I will still totally enjoy my life after a relatively short disappointed feeling. Another storm will come.

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I hope the Euro is still a good hit for NE anyway. :)

I kind of feel like the 0Z op Euro already blinked - being faster and now bombing the low well NNE of the old position near ORF. I don't see much continuity there with the previous runs. Maybe the ensemble mean showed continuity.

I blame this thread.

And Bob Boone.( As a Reds fans it is always Bob Boone's fault).

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Its actually pretty amazing how close the 00z Euro ensemble mean is to the 12z GFS ensemble mean...both argue for a track just barely outside the benchmark...which argues for a pretty decent event for the eastern half of SNE. Potentially still major.

Yeah that's why I think we still have a consensus just outside the BM. I'm not saying this to be a weenie, but the Canadian may be on crack.

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DT making a great point regarding the positioning of the west coast ridge and Southlandwx brought it up as well...both are very concerned at where the ridge axis is, it's just too far east...despite what models have done with other features and such and the different solutions the one thing they have been consistent on is the placement of the ridge axis...if that doesn't shift west than it's going to be tough to get something that everyone can benefit from.

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Yeah that's why I think we still have a consensus just outside the BM. I'm not saying this to be a weenie, but the Canadian may be on crack.

The Canadian is not a very reliable model...its nice to look at as fringe guidance, but it is what it is...a second rate model that gets consistently outperformed by the others. I'd prefer to see it a hit obviously, but its not a huge deal if it isn't.

The whiff east is certainly still a legit issue and that has been argued since this threat began....the ridge position is further east than a lot of setups, which is why we argued this had basically 0 chance of ripping west of us up Logan11's fanny.

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The Euro solution last week was technically inside 100 hours but barely. And it had very little continuity on that solution. It had two runs that showed it...one just outside of 100 hours and one just inside. It was gone next run.

consecutive runs at that range for the euro ens is meaningful, even though I totally agree that it's been much more consistent with this storm. I guess what I'm saying is, if I (or a met even) would've come and argued that the 108 and 96 hour ens were a hiccup, or that there wasn't enough continuity to put much stock in it, it wouldn't have gone too well. I think I did hear some people making that point, but only in passing. Basically playing devil's advocate with themselves.

But that event had been tracked on the GFS since D7.

Yes the GFS certainly did not score any coup last week. If I recall, after the 12z euro ens. run I was referring to when the 12z gfs had gone OTS (after showing a hit in the longer ranges), the following 0z gfs zigged back into agreement with the 12z euro, only to have the 0z euro zag back OTS.

If I only can have 1 model showing snow I'll take the euro almost every time. (I will say for certain synoptic setups I am warming up to the Nam a little bit though)

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I remember Messenger and Max (capecod4) posting in the 2004-05 winter. Some great analysis then and a great winter for both of them....up through most of NE.

Weathafella because of all the crap that comes about from pointing out anything that doesn't go along with the end of the world scenarios what is lost is what I've said for the last 3+ days, the SE 1/3 of new england is in the line of fire from Will to Kev/Ryan to SE NH and SE.

Kev can change the title 1000x times but it doesn't change that fact. Everything else is just talk and I don't understand why grown men and women can't discuss a negative outcome in a model without their being a riot.

It's 96/102 hours, quite often when the OPs go their furthest east. I'll take the euro and gfs ensembles (both model ens) for the win.

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