Wonkis Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Wide right. The block in the Atlantic seems to be in a hurry to get somewhere... starts to motor off to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It started very early with the misalignment within the developing trough. We can hope that this was an initialization error and that the Euro will show us great things, but the differences IMO at even h12 were so significant it was going to play out the way it did. The GFS is okay for extreme SE MA. The majority of that comes from an overperforming OES event! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Oh my God..that postfrom SnowNh is the last straw. Later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 <br />Pending the Euro, I'd say this Is rather sounding like a Cape scraper<br /><br /><br /><br />yep that is what I told messenger a couple days ago. It is pretty obvious a e ma/cape scrape or nothing, not sure why this event would buck the trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It started very early with the misalignment within the developing trough. We can hope that this was an initialization error and that the Euro will show us great things, but the differences IMO at even h12 were so significant it was going to play out the way it did. The GFS is okay for extreme SE MA. You did a great job predicting that, really. Nailed it. What are the odds you think it was the initialization error? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This run is eerily similar to 12/26/04 including the OES advance message throughout eastern MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 NAM not looking so radical now.0 Well, I would not go that far, Nam misses by 500 miles or so as it looks to scoot east wheras the gfs is prob 100 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 All I ask is that weenies don't flip out..saying it's 0-2 today..a shot across the bow type nonsense. Until and only if the Euro does it..none of the farther east solutions matter. It's just garbage Your thread is on pace to make the AmericanWx Hall of Fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 That missed early phase at hr 42-48 didn't look like it missed by much. Important to see what the Euro thinks regarding that development which NAM and GFS show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Oh my God..that postfrom SnowNh is the last straw. Later T Minus 2 hours 20 minutes from total meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Now THIS is a shift east...lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I hope you didn't jinx this with that thread title. LOL I'm psyched for my one inch from that light snow with the inverted trough. The GFS kinda lools like the winter of 2010. Lots of potential pissed away. No instead let's analyze the US models and lock them in becuase they have been so reliable over the years. I mean this storm has no cance of coming now. The NAM and GFS aren't direct hits. And then get all the weenies worked up because the 2 garbage models aren't major hits. Just stay the course .. And BTW I can't recall a storm in the last 2 yrs ypou've gotten right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 T Minus 2 hours 20 minutes from total meltdown. lol all hope isn't lost... pending the Euro and GFS/Euro ensembles. FWIW I will dial back a little bit for my 11 a.m. wxcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Incidentally, the UK D3 H5 looked almost like a carbon copy of GFS. Can the Euro save the day? Methinks for today...maybe not. But no need to throw it in the trash on one set of model runs just yet. Let's see what the GFS ensembles are saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I really don't think this looks all that badly, I know it shows the storm a bit off to the east but this continues to be really close, all we need is some phasing to occur a hair earlier...aloft this has a much better look than the NAM does. It doesn't have to be perfect this far out, it's all about timing/phasing and as long as models continue to show the potential of this occurring this definitely isn't over. This doesn't really look anything like the NAM either I don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 You are probably in the game for a good event yet. The rest have to get fringed for you to get a good event.... T Minus 2 hours 20 minutes from total meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The lead s/w is killing us too by knocking down the east coast ridging. BUT the Quebec energy is west If we get part 1 to work out, part 2 is starting to shape up nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm starting to think American Weather has signed on to a joint-venture with the computer models...American Weather pays for the models to predict monster storms to drive traffic to these forums. The models agreed to the deal up until about 84-100 hours out, then they revert back to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RICoastalMan Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 To many ifs in this equation for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Maybe it will turn into another retrograde/inverted trough event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Your thread is on pace to make the AmericanWx Hall of Fail lol.. Last year was the year of the block... this year is the year of the day 5 threat. I'm glad I don't have to spend Xmas looking at models now actually. It sucks we missed this one but I guess it was never meant to be. The euro will def come back east again at 12z and exactly like last storm it is another epic euro fail at day 4-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The lead s/w is killing us too by knocking down the east coast ridging. BUT the Quebec energy is west If we get part 1 to work out, part 2 is starting to shape up nicely 06z had this too, but the trough is broader, and that ridge out west is ticking east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 oh well. it was fun to track...LA nina screws us again with limited southern stream this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The lead s/w is killing us too by knocking down the east coast ridging. BUT the Quebec energy is west If we get part 1 to work out, part 2 is starting to shape up nicely YES i saw this part i wouldnt jump off any bridges just yet in new england. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 No instead let's analyze the US models and lock them in becuase they have been so reliable over the years. I mean this storm has no cance of coming now. The NAM and GFS aren't direct hits. And then get all the weenies worked up because the 2 garbage models aren't major hits. Just stay the course .. And BTW I can't recall a storm in the last 2 yrs ypou've gotten right Don't get all cranky with me because Ryan's got your number and your storm is going down faster than Charlie Sheen on a hooker. (which ironically is a storm you swore couldn't hit us just a few days ago until the beloved EC was on board) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 That is the kind of thing the GFS has been known to do in error. But this season with the model being reworked and the Euro being off its top game.. It could be that the GFS will be right, or maybe not. The lead s/w is killing us too by knocking down the east coast ridging. BUT the Quebec energy is west If we get part 1 to work out, part 2 is starting to shape up nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 oh well. it was fun to track...LA nina screws us again with limited southern stream this year... Tell that to the folks in southern California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 well.. that was not great, but there still the EC.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Bright side: The site is significantly faster now that a good 100-200 weenies just offed themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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