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OBS-NOWCAST: Back-Back snow accumulation risk (late March 16). This thread focused on March 19, 2021


wdrag
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Will convert this thread to OBS-NOWcast this evening,  Not much there for i80 south including LI. Best chance for accumulation snow appears to be I84 northward. NAM yesterday was among the modes taking the lead on less snow risk NJ/LI... we'll see what happens. NWS ensemble chance of 1"+ and the NWS 5AM/18 forecast of snowfall for the northeast. Please use the legend for your area.  No updates from myself til this eve. 604A/18

Screen Shot 2021-03-18 at 5.43.16 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-03-18 at 5.55.39 AM.png

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4 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

He definitely tends to forecast on the side of less snow all the time but more times than not he is right. 

That’s just not true IMO. He makes general comments and if it doesn’t live up to expectations in one area of the forum he claims victory. It’s a large area with lots of different micro climates. 

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1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Even GFS is showing hardly any snow now. NAM and RGEM show very little too. Not a big surprise that the models backed off on this, since back end snow is something that rarely works out for our area. Maybe it ends as some non accumulating wet flakes for a very short time.

Less dynamics in general and a faster move out of the precip. Cold air comes in too late or precip is too light to take advantage. These Anafront setups don’t work out for the most part and especially this late in March. 

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Less dynamics in general and a faster move out of the precip. Cold air comes in too late or precip is too light to take advantage. These Anafront setups don’t work out for the most part and especially this late in March. 

I can’t remember the last time there was a legit anafront snow setup here, they usually favor New England, like the Norluns/inverted troughs do. Once you get to mid-March and beyond, good luck getting an anafront snow to work out here

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14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I can’t remember the last time there was a legit anafront snow setup here, they usually favor New England, like the Norluns/inverted troughs do. Once you get to mid-March and beyond, good luck getting an anafront snow to work out here

3/16/07 May have been one of those setups, if I recall right there was a surface cold front east of here but mid level warm air still in place with the tons of sleet that storm had. 

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Converted to OBS-NOWCAST.  No time to attempt modeling edge. A lot of this will happen when our members are sleeping midnight-5AM but my guess is there should be slippery spots in and near NYC predawn Friday with strong CAA and snow showers ending between 5A and 8A.  NYC should trace and maybe get lucky with a few tenths between 2A-6A, with apparently now greater odds for a few tenths of an inch of snow e LI, and just s of I78. I don't really know what will happen.  Up here Wantage way, far nw NJ, hope to see a dusting but we might miss? My this be last decent chance of measurable snow for the 20-21 winter in NYC?

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1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

3k NAM has a lot less snow, but still a couple of inches near here.  Almost every part of me wants to write this off, but then its a short-term forecast from the NAM. I'd take the 3k version in a heartbeat.

Gfs is also more impressive

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