Severe Weather Threat 3-16-21 through 3-18-21

[cheese007]

Big 15% all modes severe area covering most of AL/AR/LA/MS/TN along with portions of KY/MO/IL/IN

[crossbowftw3]

Fred Gossage is sounding alarm bells here. Knowing what other event for which he raised the alarm bells days out, that’s enough to garner attention.

[andyhb]

Wednesday has the potential to be a widespread severe weather outbreak across the Lower MS Valley/Mid South/ TN Valley/even Lower OH Valley. An expansive EML and high BL moisture content yielding a wide region of destabilization, large area of favorable shear, and moderate forcing for ascent could yield multiple corridors of enhanced potential. Still some uncertainty surrounding the low level wind fields and northward extent, but the signals are rather troubling.

[janetjanet998]

chance of a High risk somewhere IF NAM is correct.. of course that will depend un unpredictable meso features not known until that day

also will be over multiple sub forums....(central western,  SE. Ohio Valley, TN valley..so It might be best if we use this as the main thread

 

 

 

[janetjanet998]

or this as the main thread

 

[cheese007]

30% contour for D4. Haven't seen that in a bit

[cheese007]

D2 mod risk issued. Looking like a big day tomorrow

[cheese007]

D1 enhanced added up in northwest OK extending into parts of KS and TX

[SluggerWx]

33 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

D1 enhanced added up in northwest OK extending into parts of KS and TX

There's quite a large UH swath that shows up on the HRRR after dark tonight (OK/TX border near Woodward) and tracks almost due E the whole night.

[weatherextreme]

Potential upgrade mentioned in the latest SPC update for 3/17

 

 Further east across northeast LA into MS and AL a more concerning
   scenario appears possible. Most forecast guidance agrees that a
   round of afternoon thunderstorms are expected. This activity is
   expected to develop in weaker ascent, driven by heating and low
   level warm advection. Strong 0-3 km shear near 30-40 kt will already
   be in place with enlarged low level hodographs evident. Given weaker
   forcing, this activity will have an opportunity to remain more
   discrete and any cell will quickly become a supercell capable of
   producing strong tornadoes. As a 40-50 kt low level jet increases
   around 00-03z, intense supercells are expected to advance eastward
   along with the cold front across MS and into AL overnight. This will
   bring a second round of significant severe storms capable of intense
   tornadoes, large hail and intense damaging winds across much of
   MS/AL. If these trends are maintained, an upgrade to a High risk
   could be necessary with the initial Day 1 Convective Outlook at 06z
   tonight.

[WhirlingWx]

That's a really strongly worded outlook.

[Indystorm]

It is interesting as well that Amarillo has issued a blizzard warning for early Wed pre dawn hours  and not too far se of there we have an SPC meso discussion for a possible svr wx watch this Tuesday evening.

[mob1]

While it's likely a bit elevated at the moment, this is still a really pretty cell. 

[cheese007]

Severe QLCS moving into the DFW area. Storms out ahead of the main line intensifying as well