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March 17-18 Severe Weather Event


DanLarsen34
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GSP NWS back at it again in their latest discussion  :)

As of 1150 AM: Sometimes in these situations, we must wait for the leopard to reveal his spots. That might be happening as of midday as satellite imagery/sfc obs are showing the wedge boundary/warm front moving northward. Meanwhile, radars show a narrow band of showers extending from the western tip of SC down to the east side of metro ATL. The lower Piedmont and Lakelands have broken out ahead of this line, and the little bit of insolation in that region should help the air mass recover across the Upstate and toward metro Charlotte. On this trend, it is reasonable to expect the boundary to make it north of I-85 in the early afternoon. We still wait for the SPC mesoanalysis to respond, but the 12Z model runs have no qualms in bringing a plume of 1500 J/kg of sfc-based CAPE into the Charlotte metro area in the late afternoon. Will this be enough to energize the line of convection as it moves in from the west? Some of the CAMs think so. Bottom line...at this point...in spite of the downgrade in risk this morning...think it best to not give up on this one just yet. The latest guidance theoretically has more than enough buoyancy and shear to support a few severe thunderstorms east of the mtns, with the overall best chance still to our east.

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21 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

That line moving through the upstate definitely looks a bit more robust than some of the CAMs were showing

It's kind of cool that literally every cell in that line has some very broad rotation, though the environment upstream still isn't overly impressive. 

Polish_20210318_132602514.png

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Just to comment on yesterday for a minute... I would not call it a bust.  IMO, that word is thrown around way too often in severe weather events.  Perhaps it fell a bit short of the potential that it had, though.  

I can't find reference to it anymore, but SPC used to issue a high risk when they were expecting at least 20 tornadoes in a geographical area that is the size of Oklahoma without the panhandle.  I believe there was also some threshold for the number of F/EF2 tornadoes but can't recall for sure.  Very important to remember that not every high risk is going to produce 100 tornadoes or even 50 tornadoes.  There are those days that are elite level... I would almost call those extreme risk days.

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Tornado Warning

Tornado Warning
SCC021-083-181915-
/O.NEW.KGSP.TO.W.0002.210318T1837Z-210318T1915Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
237 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northeastern Spartanburg County in Upstate South Carolina...
  Northwestern Cherokee County in Upstate South Carolina...

* Until 315 PM EDT.

* At 236 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Spartanburg, or over USC Upstate, moving northeast
  at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Cowpens, Mayo and Chesnee around 250 PM EDT.
  Cowpens National Battlefield around 300 PM EDT.
  Gaffney around 310 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this dangerous thunderstorm include
Thicketty.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3502 8210 3518 8180 3517 8155 3499 8172
      3489 8208
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 239DEG 32KT 3499 8197

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

LANE

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Just to comment on yesterday for a minute... I would not call it a bust.  IMO, that word is thrown around way too often in severe weather events.  Perhaps it fell a bit short of the potential that it had, though.  

I can't find reference to it anymore, but SPC used to issue a high risk when they were expecting at least 20 tornadoes in a geographical area that is the size of Oklahoma without the panhandle.  I believe there was also some threshold for the number of F/EF2 tornadoes but can't recall for sure.  Very important to remember that not every high risk is going to produce 100 tornadoes or even 50 tornadoes.  There are those days that are elite level... I would almost call those extreme risk days.

Didn't we exceed these thresholds last Easter?

Edit: Should the SPC create a 6th/"Extreme Risk" level for those rare days? I would argue that the 45% contour signifies this. We had this 27 April 2011 & it verified. But we also had it yesterday & it didn't. 

Edit 2: I also think that the NHC should consider adding a Category 6 for hurricanes 185 or higher. But they haven't done so. 

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