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Beware the Ides of March (and into the 16th)


Hoosier
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Looks like a wintry system worthy of discussion, with all precip types possible.  As mentioned in the other thread, I would think any freezing rain threat would be most significant on elevated objects given the warm spell and lack of much cold air at the surface ahead of the storm.  

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Currently looking like a mixy mess around here, perhaps favoring sleet more but we'll see.

I don't agree with the LOT afd which discounted freezing rain in the cwa.  It certainly looks possible in the morning hours (favoring southern cwa) and could even linger past noon imo as the low level cold layer should be slow to modify given easterly flow and ongoing precip.  The recent warmth and March sun angle are complicating factors as far as getting a heightened travel impact from the freezing rain.  One thing to watch would be anyplace that can lay down a layer of sleet before switching to liquid as that could perhaps increase the road impacts.

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30 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Currently looking like a mixy mess around here, perhaps favoring sleet more but we'll see.

I don't agree with the LOT afd which discounted freezing rain in the cwa.  It certainly looks possible in the morning hours (favoring southern cwa) and could even linger past noon imo as the low level cold layer should be slow to modify given easterly flow and ongoing precip.  The recent warmth and March sun angle are complicating factors as far as getting a heightened travel impact from the freezing rain.  One thing to watch would be anyplace that can lay down a layer of sleet before switching to liquid as that could perhaps increase the road impacts.

I'd just about totally discount the FZRA threat, and I'm not big on the sleet potential either.

Probably will be a mostly snow or rain event.

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Completely disagree, especially near/south of I-80.  

With colder air not filtering in until right before things are getting going, there isn’t going to be sufficient time for the already mild surfaces/ground to catch up. Add in that’s it’s noting going to get colder than the upper 20’s most likely either.

 

Maybeee elevated surfaces towards the end, but that’s a stretch depending on how long precip actually lasts.

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12 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

With colder air not filtering in until right before things are getting going, there isn’t going to be sufficient time for the already mild surfaces/ground to catch up. Add in that’s it’s noting going to get colder than the upper 20’s most likely either.

 

Maybeee elevated surfaces towards the end, but that’s a stretch depending on how long precip actually lasts.

Trees, power lines, metal signs, etc should cool off pretty quickly in tandem with air temps imo.  I would expect some glazing on those.  Although it's mild in the lead-in, we are not torching as much as earlier this week. 

The thing that is more of a concern to me as far as getting efficient accretion is heavier precip rates.

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10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

If you bet against warm air aloft, you might win 10% of the time.

In no way, shape or form do I buy the HRRR around here.

Every event this winter that had mixing to start had disappointing results for snowfall for this area, so I'm gonna bet against seeing much snow and play the pessimistic role for this one lol.

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3 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The NAM is much different than the HRRR.... bupkis for me or cyclone.

This one and the next event around the 18th are throw-away events.  Minor stat padding at best for snowfall.  No convective potential which sucks for mid March.  Basically it's looking like the whole stretch from late Feb to late March is a month worth of down time for anything of interest of any kind.  Hopefully something of interest shows up sometime in April.  

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didnt know where to put this

 

National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
504 AM MDT Sun Mar 14 2021

...HISTORIC AND CRIPPLING WINTER STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
ALL OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
WEEKEND...

...WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TODAY...TRAVEL WILL BE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...

...CONDITIONS UNLIKELY TO IMPROVE UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY...
...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Very heavy snow and blowing snow. Total snow
  accumulations of 20 to 30 inches with local amounts up to 50
  inches above 8000 feet elevation. Wind gusts up to 60 MPH.
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1 hour ago, iluvsnow said:

I am sure most are aware of the snowstorm in the front range of the Rockies.  I found a time lapse from Cheyenne, Wy this morning. Make sure you wait till the very end to see what this morning looks like.

https://webcams.windy.com/webcams/public/embed/player/1456851101/lifetime?token=see.cam

meh. alek's pics from a month ago put these to shame. :snowing:

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