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March 2021 Discobs


nj2va
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On 3/28/2021 at 6:07 AM, dailylurker said:

Looks like another over performer inbound. Crazy how it doesn't just rain anymore. It's always a flood event pretty much every time it rain. 

 

On 3/28/2021 at 6:20 AM, CAPE said:

Lol wait until Wed-Thurs.

Guess where WPC has the axis of heaviest rain for Wed currently. Still some disparity across guidance. Hopefully no more than an inch.

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

 

 

Guess where WPC has the axis of heaviest rain for Wed currently. Still some disparity across guidance. Hopefully no more than an inch.

 

1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

Let me guess.. same place it's been the past 2 years lol. 

Some things just don't change lately. 

Ex. The near sub-tropical entity dropping 2+ inches of rain with the western edge along-  you know the interstate continuing last years theme. 

As always, persistence until it isn't anymore. But this persistence has been persisting persistently for a while.

It's going to change... eventually. 

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Not long range anymore.  Inside 72 now

Ukie with some wintery  changeover love.... or hate for some peoples:lol:

 

sn10_acc.us_ma (1).png

That’s 96. The reason i mention that is it seems there’s a bit of discrepancy in the timing. Is it going to be over Thursday morning or continue into Friday

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9 hours ago, dailylurker said:

Let me guess.. same place it's been the past 2 years lol. 

Latest AFD from Mount Holly-

As the midnight shift mentioned this morning and I`ll repeat verbatim, "it is becoming clear is that the large-scale pattern is favorable for an axis of decently high QPF, with upper-level flow becoming increasingly parallel to the surface front. With intense large-scale ascent via differential cyclonic vorticity advection and warm/moist low- level advection, precipitation will be widespread and fairly long-duration (despite the fast movement of the surface low)."

So the challenge is where exactly does that axis of heavy precip develop? Based on trends in model guidance, forecast keeps the heaviest precip over our CWA with the highest totals (1-1.5") just east of the I-95 corridor. While subtle shifts are likely within the guidance of the next couple of days, I anticipate we`ll see at least some portion of the forecast area will recieve a prolonged 6+ hours of moderate to at times heavy rain even as the system is gaining speed moving to towards the northeast. As such, we`ve introduced heavy rain wording into the forecast for the Wednesday afternoon and overnight time periods.

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Mount Holly on snow chances. A tad different than that Ukie snow map above lol.

For those who enjoy Spring snow, our eyes turn to the behind the cold front as cold air will race southeastward into the region by Thursday morning. I`m not to terribly bullish on wintry precipitation however with the cold air surging, its becoming increasingly likely that we`ll see rain turning to snow for the Poconos however it will likely be highly elevation dependent. Generally less than half an inch will be possible but with an increasing solar angle we may not see very much actually accumulate.

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Those who are jonesing for Spring snow should take a drive. The places that typically get it are going to, and maybe a good amount in some cases.

Per WPC-

As the low lifts northeast, it will be accompanied by moist and warm advection from the Gulf of Mexico with widespread and ample precipitation spreading northward. Initially, the column will be too warm for any wintry precipitation. However, a cold front sinking southeastward will lead to CAA and full-column cooling, aided by what is likely to be an intense deformation axis on the NW side of the low, into which robust WAA will drive strong omega through the DGZ. This suggests that a period of heavy snow is likely as precip changes over from rain to snow, and model-cross sections indicate a chance for CSI banding across upstate New York Thursday morning. While the heaviest snow is likely in the terrain where temperatures will be colder and cool more quickly, WPC probabilities for moderate to heavy snow have expanded slightly to encompass some lower terrain as well where the dynamic cooling will overcome the marginal low-level thermal structure. WPC probabilities have increased, and are now high for 6 inches on days 2.5-3 in the Finger Lakes region, the Tug Hill Plateau, and Adirondacks of New York. In the Adirondacks, locally more than 10" is likely where some upslope enhancement will occur as NW flow develops behind the low. WPC probabilities for 4 inches are moderate for much of upstate New York outside of the Hudson River Valley, and parts of VT. Lighter snows adding up to a few inches are likely as the low pulls away in the favored upslope regions of WV, and downwind of Lake Erie and Ontario.

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Looking like a real hard freeze Thursday night.  Far NW areas might see low 20s 

This does look likely. Thinking 28ish IMBY. That should be ok for my blooming magnolia. Under 25 is where the blooms could get nuked and I think I stay above that.

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36 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This does look likely. Thinking 28ish IMBY. That should be ok for my blooming magnolia. Under 25 is where the blooms could get nuked and I think I stay above that.

yeah the wind should help from reaching min lows I guess but might be close.  Fairly impressive cold shot for April 1, luckily it looks to be short lived and by easter sunday and next week we're defintely back into Spring

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2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Looking like a real hard freeze Thursday night.  Far NW areas might see low 20s 

Maybe the temporary cold will slow the warp-speed growth of my backyard grass, which will be knee-high in spots by this weekend if I don't get my butt out there today and do the first cut. But I doubt it.  :) 

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1 hour ago, Baltimorewx said:

yeah the wind should help from reaching min lows I guess but might be close.  Fairly impressive cold shot for April 1, luckily it looks to be short lived and by easter sunday and next week we're defintely back into Spring

These forecast lows are not that impressive. Like -10F departures. We had +20F minimum departures last week. The beat goes on.

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4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

These forecast lows are not that impressive. Like -10F departures. We had +20F minimum departures last week. The beat goes on.

Yeah, I guess maybe Im just saying that because we havent had low departures all winter really...I think maybe I had one morning where it got in the teens.

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1 hour ago, vastateofmind said:

Maybe the temporary cold will slow the warp-speed growth of my backyard grass, which will be knee-high in spots by this weekend if I don't get my butt out there today and do the first cut. But I doubt it.  :) 

I got the lawn mower tuned up two weeks ago.  Have mowed grass twice now.  Check that, I mowed 50% weeds, 50% grass.  Warm temps gonna keep that stuff stretching upwards 

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Hope the CMC is correct. Would be nice to see N central MD get a 2"+ soaking rain. Hate to see them get into early pre-drought concerns after all the dryness last summer/Fall.

As for here, would love to underperform for a second straight event. A half to 1 inch would be perfect.

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