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March 2021 Discobs


nj2va
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Interesting read from Mt Holly

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Beautiful satellite imagery over the CONUS this morning as an occluding mid- latitude cyclone slowly approaches the western Great Lakes. Ahead of it lies an expansive frontal zone of cloud cover with a large band of cold cloud tops observed on IR from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation in most of this band is limited and on the light side as of early this morning, however. Meanwhile, a weak but pesky surface low which has sat well to our south for days was observed on radar moving inland over North Carolina overnight. The landfall was reminiscent of a weak tropical cyclone moving ashore. FSU cyclone phase space diagrams suggest it had at best a marginal and shallow warm core at landfall, and a lack of any deep convection rendered it firmly non-tropical. But it has a good envelope of higher moisture air associated with it from the sub-tropics, and as the day goes on it will begin to interact with the approaching frontal zone. This combination will lead to the blossoming of an area of showers which will bring a solid dose of rain to the area.

As the day goes on, what remains of the low to the south will become entrained in the slow moving frontal zone and will move towards our region. Continuing a trend that has been ongoing for at least 36 hours now, most model guidance continues to trend higher on QPF for this event. There has certainly been a trend higher in projected PWATs for today, which appear poised to rise to 1.2 to 1.4 inches across the region. Low level omega shows notable improvement over the area today, especially this afternoon. There is also a somewhat subtle ~95 kt upper jet streak which moves into New York state this afternoon, adding a bit of divergence at the upper levels. With this said, continuing the connections to tropical weather, there are at least some loose parallels to a Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) in play today with the rising PWATs and right entrance jet dynamics, especially considering the actual center of the compact low remains south of the region for most of the day. While there is quite a bit of variation in the models, it now appears many areas will pick up 0.5 to 1.0 inches of rain today, with the potential for some localized higher amounts especially over southeastern portions of the area near the low center

 

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3 hours ago, CAPE said:

Interesting read from Mt Holly

Thank you for occasionally sharing these snippets from Mt. Holly...and you just reminded me to bookmark their discussion page. Their daily insights are usually pretty interesting, and sometimes capture the "nuanced" wx features, and possibilities surrounding them, moreso than other regional offices. Just my dos centavos...  :) 

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1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Yeah, worst time of year to be at the beach with those sea breezes.  Just wait til we get a backdoor CF!

Ugh.. I lived here for 5 years. I remember burning my woodstove in May while 5 miles inland would be sunny and 75. I'd be 50 with low clouds and fog. Even early June can be sneakily shitty lol.

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7 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Ugh.. I lived here for 5 years. I remember burning my woodstove in May while 5 miles inland would be sunny and 75. I'd be 50 with low clouds and fog. Even early June can be sneakily shitty lol.

Darn it, d l, just when I thought I couldn’t find another two word phrase worthy of preservation for future use, you hand me another one. Thank you, as always.....

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4 hours ago, CAPE said:

Pouring.

I feel this is the same old crap from last spring and summer ....rain, and more rain. Never just showers.   What was suppose to be showers has ened up with flash flooding here. 

Nasty day with the weeds already growing. I actually prefer a drought. 

If this were a snowstorm would underperform, of course since it is rain, its a flood, par for the course. 

 

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Ah yes... the wind has returned!

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
153 PM EDT Wed Mar 24 2021

MDZ001-501-VAZ503-WVZ501-503-505-250200-
/O.NEW.KLWX.HW.A.0001.210326T0600Z-210326T2100Z/
Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Western Highland-Western Grant-
Western Mineral-Western Pendleton-
Including the cities of Mountain Lake Park, Oakland, Grantsville,
Frostburg, Hightown, Bayard, Mount Storm, Elk Garden,
and Riverton
153 PM EDT Wed Mar 24 2021

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West to southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60
  mph possible.

* WHERE...In Maryland, Garrett and Extreme Western Allegany
  Counties. In Virginia, Western Highland County. In West
  Virginia, Western Grant, Western Mineral and Western Pendleton
  Counties.

* WHEN...From late Thursday night through Friday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
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