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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2021 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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2 hours ago, KamuSnow said:

I'm okay with 60s through April, then 70s in May. I saw a lot of small bugs yesterday and thought of RedSky for some reason. I know he has issues with the stink bugs.

I've been wondering if the lack of cold this winter will result in more bugs this year.

Haven't seen any stink bugs yet....spotted lantern flies are suppose to make a return though.

61F 

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6 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Haven't seen any stink bugs yet....spotted lantern flies are suppose to make a return though.

61F 

Yeah we got the spotted lantern flies in a big way last year, not good for the walnut trees. Gonna try wrapping tape around the trunk sticky side out once they get started.

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On 3/25/2021 at 10:33 PM, RedSky said:

GFS thinks April is winter this year. We're not really going to do ANOTHER cold April?

I've been saying for years now, that April can be a very cruel month. Most (even a lot of winter/snow lovers) have gone over to Spring mode. The tulips, hyacinths, daffodils, etc are popping out and growing, and then, bam...one or more arctic blasts with snow potential.

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Interesting Mt. Holly discussion for the mid/late week system. 

An impactful system is expected to move through the region on 
  Wednesday and Thursday, with much colder and breezy conditions 
  expected to close the week. 
   
  Deterministic model solutions have noticeably converged 
  regarding the Wednesday/Thursday system evolution. However, 
  critical differences remain, particularly with the track of the 
  developing wave of low pressure along the advancing front in the 
  southeastern U.S. Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The 00z ECMWF 
  and CMC remain noticeably slower with the advancing trough and 
  continue to be preferred owing to the developing high-amplitude 
  ridging downstream. The 00z GFS has trended closer to the tracks 
  of the ECMWF/CMC with tonight`s output, increasing confidence 
  somewhat. Nevertheless, the GFS continues to be more  
  progressive and drier with the precipitation from the system  
  during this period, an important caveat to the discussion below. 
   
  As the low approaches the CWA Wednesday afternoon and evening, 
  considerable large-scale lift will be in place via right- 
  entrance region upper divergence from a favorably positioned 
  250-mb jet streak, strong differential cyclonic vorticity  
  advection downstream of the advancing, more neutrally-tilted  
  trough, and substantial warm/moist advection on the northern  
  periphery of a poleward-advancing warm sector. Models indicate  
  widespread precipitation developing in this regime, convectively 
  enhanced near the approaching front and in vicinity of the  
  intensifying surface low. Model soundings do indicate some  
  instability in the pre-frontal warm sector, especially if the  
  surface low tracks farther west. Have added thunder to the  
  forecast for much of the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. 
  Heavy rainfall is quite possible with this setup, especially  
  since upper-level flow will become oriented mostly parallel to  
  the approaching front (thanks in large part to the high-  
  amplitude ridging downstream). QPF of 1-2+ inches is depicted  
  with the CMC/ECMWF (50+ percent less in the GFS/ICON). Given the 
  potential convective enhancement of the precipitation and a  
  couple of antecedent soaking rain events, this seems like a  
  setup that favors some flooding potential. Will monitor this  
  closely as the event approaches. 
   
  In addition, very strong cold advection will occur on the 
  upstream side of the cold front, with temperatures dropping 
  10-20 degrees in a matter of a few hours after frontal passage. 
  The cold conveyor belt of the intensifying surface low, along  
  with favorable frontogenetical forcing/deformation, may produce  
  a band of precipitation on the west/northwest side of the low  
  that lingers for several hours. Thermal profiles would favor a  
  switchover to snow for the southern Poconos and far northwest  
  New Jersey, perhaps resulting in some accumulations Thursday  
  morning. (Much heavier snow may occur to our north/northwest,  
  notably.) Will be monitoring this potential as well in the  
  coming days. 
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16 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Something nasty rolled through Neptune, NJ this evening. Pics I saw were of damage to car windows, and lumber (presumably structure damage) strewn about. Don't know if it was straight line winds or a small spin-up...

Watching the news now, yeah Philly S & E got drilled way more than the burbs...I was surprised to see this.

Winds howling / 51F

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26 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Something nasty rolled through Neptune, NJ this evening. Pics I saw were of damage to car windows, and lumber (presumably structure damage) strewn about. Don't know if it was straight line winds or a small spin-up...

Straight line winds per 6abc at McGurie...

abc.jpg

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1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

Yeah, if we could get a stretch of 4 or 5 warm, sunny days, the lawns would really pop. Plenty of buds starting to show on the trees and well.

45F

With highs in the 40s Thurs/Fri and nights below freezing plants, buds and grass won't know if they're coming or going....

46F/gusty 

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50 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Going to be another example of a +3F month that did not feel like one because it's skewed by 5 or 6 torch days

Don S was giving the month 50/50 odds at above normal mid month

 

 

I'm not a big stats guy for this reason unless I lived through it.

We could get a 24" snowstorm on Dec 27th then blow torch the rest of the winter w/heavy rain. People 75yrs from now will say Philly was above snow average for that particular year...totally skewed and nonsense. 

49F/still gusty

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On 3/29/2021 at 6:06 PM, Wentzadelphia said:

Winter finale this week. Thinking about heading to like Malone NY, somewhere far N NY....could see 12-20”. I think I’ve personally witnessed more snow than anyone in the country this year lmao 

I think you've earned the Golden Weenie for your dedication this year :lol:

 

goldenweenie.jpg

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