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March 2021 General Discussion


Hoosier
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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

If you want a laugh, pull up the Euro gust maps.  There are pockets of 70-80 mph on there.  But the gust products are to be used with caution given what I mentioned above, in addition to them tending to be overdone in shallower/more questionable mixing regimes.

ILN seems to think it's possible. Their watch is for gusts to 65 after the front and the AFD states, "

The wind fields -- both in
magnitude and expanse -- are concerning. The LL directional and
speed shear is notable, yielding hodographs are long and
somewhat curved. The main limiting factor for severe potential
will be the lack of instability rooted near the surface, which
may be rather limited except /just/ along/immediately ahead of
and east of the actual sfc low track itself. This would support
an environment where the greatest severe threat would exist
immediately near/east of the sfc low track, which current model
consensus would place mainly near/west of the I-75 corridor.
This, of course, is entirely dependent on the track of that sfc
low and the degree to which we can attain SB destabilization in
the wake of afternoon activity. The profile will be very
saturated, but very energetic. If even a little bit of SB-instby
is realized, it would not take much at all for stronger cores
to translate down some /very/ strong wind to the sfc."
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The air smelt great for the first (or second) time this year with another 19C+ in the bag. The evening was beautiful as if it was mid-summer, with towers in the distance and the sky glowing. There was a string of cells that formed nearly on top of me at 6 that produced a few sprinkles like earlier but just missed. Likely legit t-storms to my north. Around here getting a storm in March is a twice in a decade occurrence at most.

UW station hit 19.2C later in the day, I'm really wondering if it makes it tomorrow, which out of this stretch is the most likely day to get to 20C.

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I'm getting my first sort-of thunderstorm of 2021 which tbh I didn't expect despite TWN putting one for this evening out FMBY. After the first string of cells moved north, hours later more cells are firing near the lakeshore and moving quickly NE with lightning. I saw a few flashes and can hear moderate thunder, pretty amazing March this is!

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This is crazy, the UW weather station reached 19.8C and stayed there for 45 minutes before falling back!!! :lmao::lmao: That is the closest to 20C I've ever heard of it getting to during the contest with the previous highest 19.7C :lol:. I almost wonder if the station even was functioning properly because it seems like a stretch for it to stay exactly at 19.8 for that long. The page wasn't updating for over a hour so who knows, I wouldn't be surprised to see a revision tomorrow where it hit 20C and the highest 24h tally didn't catch it or something. I was thinking based on yesterday's high and the increment from Tues that it would get to 19.6C so not bad :lol:. 2021 will not be the 5th year for 20C in March since the contest started in '98 and its been since 2012. I'm rooting for June this time!

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Picked up a $hit ton of rain last night and into this morning. Definitely needed it. After almost week of 60s - 70s the green-up has launched off the pad here. Started last week and is very noticeable now. Its beed a solid March. Hoping that April holds the line as indicated in the LR and we stay mild and sunny. Now all we need are some 2010 style T Storms. 

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Was glancing thru ILN's wind reports from yesterdays wind storm and found an anomaly in my town:

:3/25/2021,1155 PM, OH, Greene, 1 ESE Bowersville, , , 39.5706, -83.7047, PKGUST, 16, mph, OHDOT, Peak Wind Gust,
:3/26/2021,1253 AM, OH, Greene, Fairborn, , , 39.8081, -83.9579, PKGUST, 32, mph, CWOP, Peak Wind Gust,
:3/26/2021,0450 AM, OH, Greene, Beavercreek, , , 39.753, -84.074, PKGUST, 39, mph, CWOP, Peak Wind Gust,
:3/26/2021,0430 AM, OH, Greene, Xenia, , , 39.7217, -83.9962, PKGUST, 41, mph, CWOP, Peak Wind Gust,
:3/26/2021,0354 AM, OH, Greene, Spring Valley, , , 39.6002, -83.9733, PKGUST, 42, mph, CWOP, Peak Wind Gust,
:3/26/2021,0340 AM, OH, Greene, Wright-Patterson AFB, , , 39.8167, -84.0333, PKGUST, 59, mph, AWOS, Peak Wind Gust,
:3/26/2021,0335 AM, OH, Greene, Xenia Greene County Apt, , , 39.7, -83.9833, PKGUST, 60, mph, AWOS, Peak Wind Gust,
:3/26/2021,0518 AM, OH, Greene, Bellbrook, , , 39.636, -84.0708, PKGUST, 112, mph, CWOP, Peak Wind Gust,

pretty sure there was no 112MPH wind gusts anywhere near here! :blink:

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