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March Long Range Discussion


stormtracker
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6 hours ago, CAPE said:

Sure it can snow in early April. Even had a couple inches here years ago. This doesn't look like the synoptic setup to do it though. Basically it would be an anafrontal deal. That will be cold chasing rain most of the time, and esp in Spring.  Looks pretty good for interior NE, with a coastal low forming up that way.

Yes. We see the models try to do this all the time in the long range when in reality 90% of the time things dry out before it gets cold enough. This will be no different. Looks like the modeling is trending and correcting to this today so far 

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Not really LR anymore, but the mid to late week storm looks like it may be an impressive rain producer for our region. 

Latest AFD from Mount Holly-

As the low approaches the CWA Wednesday afternoon and evening, considerable large-scale lift will be in place via right- entrance region upper divergence from a favorably positioned 250-mb jet streak, strong differential cyclonic vorticity advection downstream of the advancing, more neutrally-tilted trough, and substantial warm/moist advection on the northern periphery of a poleward-advancing warm sector. Models indicate widespread precipitation developing in this regime, convectively enhanced near the approaching front and in vicinity of the intensifying surface low. Model soundings do indicate some instability in the pre-frontal warm sector, especially if the surface low tracks farther west. Have added thunder to the forecast for much of the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall is quite possible with this setup, especially since upper-level flow will become oriented mostly parallel to the approaching front (thanks in large part to the high- amplitude ridging downstream). QPF of 1-2+ inches is depicted with the CMC/ECMWF (50+ percent less in the GFS/ICON). Given the potential convective enhancement of the precipitation and a couple of antecedent soaking rain events, this seems like a setup that favors some flooding potential. Will monitor this closely as the event approaches. In addition, very strong cold advection will occur on the upstream side of the cold front, with temperatures dropping 10-20 degrees in a matter of a few hours after frontal passage. The cold conveyor belt of the intensifying surface low, along with favorable frontogenetical forcing/deformation, may produce a band of precipitation on the west/northwest side of the low that lingers for several hours. Thermal profiles would favor a switchover to snow for the southern Poconos and far northwest New Jersey, perhaps resulting in some accumulations Thursday morning.

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19 minutes ago, high risk said:

      maybe 50s Saturday and near 70 Sunday?     850 temps still look pretty low on Saturday......

Yeah, last couple runs have trended a little cooler for sunday as well...Wont complain as long as its 60 and sunny, but 70 might be a stretch except for southern zones

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All of the models this year displayed a cold bias at range. Days 4-10 or so. Now I don’t know dick about computer programming, but you’d think a consistent bias could be programmed out even if it was as simple as add 10 degrees day 8-10, 7 days 5-7 and so on.

And on a side note, as far as practical weather, I thought the ICON did a pretty fair job this year. It’s forecasts are very stable from run to run.

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4 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

All of the models this year displayed a cold bias at range. Days 4-10 or so. Now I don’t know dick about computer programming, but you’d think a consistent bias could be programmed out even if it was as simple as add 10 degrees day 8-10, 7 days 5-7 and so on.

And on a side note, as far as practical weather, I thought the ICON did a pretty fair job this year. It’s forecasts are very stable from run to run.

It scored a fair bit too, such as latching onto the Feb 7th storm not going OTS. It mainly sucks that it has very limited visuals, like no 850s and no mixing indications (No soundings too I think), but yeah. 

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8 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

All of the models this year displayed a cold bias at range. Days 4-10 or so. Now I don’t know dick about computer programming, but you’d think a consistent bias could be programmed out even if it was as simple as add 10 degrees day 8-10, 7 days 5-7 and so on.

And on a side note, as far as practical weather, I thought the ICON did a pretty fair job this year. It’s forecasts are very stable from run to run.

I thought the same about the ICON. It is almost boring with its lack of being prone to advertising extremes-  a good thing at range.

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