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March Long Range Discussion

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CMC 216 has a "Where was that setup a month ago?" storm. 

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10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Can we get a control run up in here?

You won't have to wait long.   Weather Will will be posting the worst  and most useless member of the Euro ensembles in about 3 hours. 

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1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Yes Yoda, that was his point.

But anyway...you know it's sad when GFS shows snow next week and nobody seems excited.

Models have been too cold plus incorrect assessment of upper air warm layers all winter. 

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22 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You won't have to wait long.   Weather Will will be posting the worst  and most useless member of the Euro ensembles in about 3 hours. 

I know. And even though it was obvious I was trolling and never want to see it posted here again, it will surely appear.

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Euro shreds the crap out of the ULL.   Nice looking surface high though.

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8 minutes ago, Amped said:

Euro shreds the crap out of the ULL.   Nice looking surface high though.

Yes, but it did move towards the GFS in getting precip into our area.

 

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8 hours ago, anotherman said:

How are people with a job able to chase during the week?  I don't get it......

I am pretty much free to do whatever I want as long as I get my work done.. but this is actually a weekend deal in Denver

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28 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

I feel bad for the Boulder weenies.  12z GFS took away 20” of snow.  
 

Oh it isn't done yet.

And wait until the poor VA weenies see their GFS snow for next week dwindle to next to nothing over the next few runs. I am sure they know better.

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Just saw today's runs . Trend is our friend lol. And nobody posted the Gfs . It snows Monday and Tuesday. Decent snows in Va, Md, WV...even the beaches for @CAPEto chase .

 

gfs-deterministic-md-total_snow_kuchera-5982400.png

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33 minutes ago, attml said:

GFS at 120 looks interesting!  image.thumb.png.63a4031084385810ced77addb53a26c5.png

It’s worse than 12z. And imagine the 18z eps must not have been too spiffy either since I haven’t seen it posted.

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I think we need to watch this follow up energy in Utal for day 9 ish period.  A western ridge develops behind it with possible lower heights not  too far north.  A good track with cold enough air nearby could surprise.  I'm curious to see where guidance goes on this period once inside 5 or 6 days.

Eps 144 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-5917600.png

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

I think we need to watch this follow up energy in Utal for day 9 ish period.  A western ridge develops behind it with possible lower heights not  too far north.  A good track with cold enough air nearby could surprise.  I'm curious to see where guidance goes on this period once inside 5 or 6 days.

Eps 144 

That's the one I am hoping has a shot.  Couple things to like with the setup as progged so far out.  And I'll be at Deep Creek Lake at that time, where March snow isn't uncommon.

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GEFS Trending...

1615950000-RRCSH5WO1dU.png

Means are generally warmer with more ridging out in front of the closed low in the central US, and the press from the NA vortex is weaker as it is further east, more notably on the EPS. Hard to win with this setup esp in mid March, as relaxation in the confluence might allow any wave propagating eastward to not be completely shredded, but it will be warmer and the precip will probably still be on the light side. EPS has an inch or less of snow fwiw.

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1 hour ago, Baltimorewx said:

GFS caved

Saying caved with several days left is silly . And it actually still shows some snow . Still Euro op,  several ensembles of Eps and some Gefs with light to moderate accumulations.  It's only Thursday morning and timing is averaging around Tuesday morning for any frozen potential.  

:popcorn:

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Saying caved with several days left is silly . And it actually still shows some snow . Still Euro op,  several ensembles of Eps and some Gefs with light to moderate accumulations.  It's only Thursday morning and timing is averaging around Tuesday morning for any frozen potential.  

:popcorn:

Crap rates,  today’s fireball and March sun angle....what could possibly go wrong.  If only we were Denver!  Happy to have experienced what is about to happen to them.  My favorite was a late March Blizzard in 92, 80 at noon, cold front came through around 5 with tornado warnings, cranking snow and Thunder snow by 11.  By 11 the next morning sun was out with about 25 inches on the ground.  That was an epic 24 hour period.  

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