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March Long Range Discussion


stormtracker
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8 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Yeah, instead of 50 and drizzle, it's 44 and pouring rain.  Great for early April!

Exactly, it’s the end of March, where is the cold going to come from? The new GFS is as badly cold biased as the old one was. Twitter is trying to hype what’s going to be a rain event the end of next week into an I-95 snowstorm already, I see today

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32 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Are you serious with this stuff . I've never ever looked at soil temps . I guess if I was a farmer with 500 acres of crops I might or owned a Nursery I might peek at it .

 

Regardless...it can snow on April  1st . For those of us who enjoy tracking storms and anomalous weather year around.... not just DJF ....next weeks threat is next up .

Enjoy your 60 inches of loose 100 degree soiled temps :lol:

Cicada hunting.

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This is reality, from Mount Holly. Op models esp the GFS are LOL. We could barely get enough cold for snow in the heart of winter.

The next system of note approaches later Wednesday into Thursday with another chance for some rain/thunderstorms/hydro concerns as a cold front crosses the forecast area. Rain is expected to start moving into the region later Wednesday through Thursday. Winds will pick up behind the cold front on Thursday. Temperatures drop off behind the departing cold front with overnight lows dropping to the 20s to lower 30s. The precipitation is expected to cut off before the cold air arrives so not expecting much, if any, mixing to occur. Highs look to struggle to remain in the 40s across the forecast area on Friday.

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Not just  the Gfs 

Euro, Icon,  Gfs ,Eps, Gefs all support the potential possibility of some snow . NW areas no doubt would be favored.  April 1st snow is certainly not uncommon .

We have seen this crap from models for months lol. Probably a 100" of digital snow for the winter here from any one of those ens, mostly at this range.

Mount Holly's FA goes up to the Poconos. They aren't too impressed with the threat of frozen even there. They could be wrong ofc, but I will easily side with climo on April 1. This doesn't look like some historic event on the means. Sure there may be some wet flakes in northern areas as the precip ends, but that is pretty pedestrian. If that floats your boat, well, ok.

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44 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We have seen this crap from models for months lol. Probably a 100" of digital snow for the winter here from any one of those ens, mostly at this range.

Mount Holly's FA goes up to the Poconos. They aren't too impressed with the threat of frozen even there. They could be wrong ofc, but I will easily side with climo on April 1. This doesn't look like some historic event on the means. Sure there may be some wet flakes in northern areas as the precip ends, but that is pretty pedestrian. If that floats your boat, well, ok.

I am heading up to New England later next week and next weekend to do some skiing.  I was expecting spring conditions...skiing in a jacket on slush snow.  Not sure how I feel about the potential to get mid winter conditions for a couple days.  

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I am heading up to New England later next week and next weekend to do some skiing.  I was expecting spring conditions...skiing in a jacket on slush snow.  Not sure how I feel about the potential to get mid winter conditions for a couple days.  

Enjoy. It will be fun. Like Spring skiing in the Rockies. One day it’s shorts and the next it’s a blizzard. 

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8 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

 

Cape ...it's not about " I'll go with climo" . For me its just another storm to track because this is a fun hobby for me year around . Guidance supports the potential atm whether right or wrong . We all know it's a low chance areas see accumulation . If tracking this is   so crappy why bother . Me personally...I love tracking any potential because sunny 50-85 is a dime a dozen . Also a coating to a couple inches on April 1st isn't uncommon at all especially n+w . I've witnessed  April snow many times . Regardless its usually 70 and sunny a couple days later . Have a 120 minute for me:drunk:

I'm drinking Yuengling tonight 

Sure it can snow in early April. Even had a couple inches here years ago. This doesn't look like the synoptic setup to do it though. Basically it would be an anafrontal deal. That will be cold chasing rain most of the time, and esp in Spring.  Looks pretty good for interior NE, with a coastal low forming up that way.

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9 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I am heading up to New England later next week and next weekend to do some skiing.  I was expecting spring conditions...skiing in a jacket on slush snow.  Not sure how I feel about the potential to get mid winter conditions for a couple days.  

Friday looks like the best day for winter-like conditions right now. Saturday doesn't look bad either, but probably above freezing by afternoon.

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52 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Still too early to know where a low forms on the front . I'm rooting for a bit more Southerly dig so more energy is hanging at the base of the trough possibly increasing the chance of a low starting to form south of us but also increases the chance of a low real tight to the coast or  going over the beaches . And  this would probably mean lesser chance of se i95 seeing snow :yikes:. ...We'll see . Still some nice scenarios on the Eps . Unless you hate snow that's not in DJF.

 

But those darn soil temps...I tell you :ph34r:

 

6z Eps coming in with stronger vorticity at the base in Southern Va , N. NC area . Hinting at a stronger earlier forming slp. 

Mean snow likes interior areas near  i81 in the mid Atlantic up through NE but doesn't just confine chances to NE . Far nw burbs in the mid Atlantic definitely still in play . As is 95 for at least a brief chance at some whitining .

Euro/EPS is more amplified and not as progressive as the GFS, so that would be the evolution to root for to get a chance of frozen for the MA. Even that as depicted would favor the western highlands and maybe places like NE PA- typical climo favored regions for Spring snow.

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