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March Long Range Discussion


stormtracker
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Some people are being silly. A few observations.   Guidance is all displacing a now strengthening tpv lobe into Quebec the second half of March. This leads to a trough amplification into the east. This is a very different mechanism for cold then earlier this winter and right now. It’s more similar to the cold periods we saw in March 2014 and 2015. 
 

That doesn’t mean it will snow. It’s very late. Even in a good pattern we need luck. If I had to bet I would bet no. But that doesn’t mean it’s impossible.  It can snow in late March. Everyone in here knows that. And everyone also knows just because they had bad luck in January and February doesn’t guarantee bad luck in March. So people need to stop it with the fatalistic projection or reverse psychology stuff. Just because you’re disgusted about this winters results and personally done with winter doesn’t mean it can’t snow. The weather don’t care.  
 

Do I think it’s going to snow?  Probably not. But it could, the pattern looks somewhat favorable, so I find the posts making definitive declarations that something that has happened even recently (late March snow) cannot possibly happen to be silly!  

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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Some people are being silly. A few observations.   Guidance is all displacing a now strengthening tpv lobe into Quebec the second half of March. This leads to a trough amplification into the east. This is a very different mechanism for cold then earlier this winter and right now. It’s more similar to the cold periods we saw in March 2014 and 2015. 
 

That doesn’t mean it will snow. It’s very late. Even in a good pattern we need luck. If I had to bet I would bet no. But that doesn’t mean it’s impossible.  It can snow in late March. Everyone in here knows that. And everyone also knows just because they had bad luck in January and February doesn’t guarantee bad luck in March. So people need to stop it with the fatalistic projection or reverse psychology stuff. Just because you’re disgusted about this winters results and personally done with winter doesn’t mean it can’t snow. The weather don’t care.  
 

Do I think it’s going to snow?  Probably not. But it could, the pattern looks somewhat favorable, so I find the posts making definitive declarations that something that has happened even recently (late March snow) cannot possibly happen to be silly!  

Yeah, it is a little amusing.  Like you, I don't really see a high probability of actually getting snow.  Well, beyond something like a bit of white rain or a few mangled flakes, that wouldn't surprise me.  But at the same time, I'm definitely intrigued here and something to keep a watch on.  I know there are several who are "done" with winter by now or who don't care for March snows in general because they don't hang around for long.  Personally, I'd love it if we could get a good event in later March, to be honest!  It wouldn't bother me that it would disappear within a couple of days after.

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7 minutes ago, blueberryfaygo said:

Do you think its gonna be windy on Tuesday and Wed?  I sure hope not.. or maybe just a light southerly breeze.  A brisk westerly can mess up these March Early Spring days.

Doesn’t seem like very strong winds to me...west to southerly flow but generally under 10knot. 

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