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March Long Range Discussion


stormtracker
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13 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I do believe in that correlation. The last several super ninos (1973/1983/1998/2016) were all followed by multiple year hostile pacific patterns. But at the same time let’s not pretend the larger trend isn’t there either. The 99-02 period was worse then the comparable post nino 80s and 70s periods and the 17-21 period now was worst of all. And the frequency of sub 10” winters is increasing even independent of those post nino periods. So like I’ve said our recent problems are a combo of both. Both a shorter term hostile period coinciding with the continued degradation of our larger scale snow climo. There will still be peaks and wins but imo the valleys are going to be lower and more frequent. 

The degradation of snow climo is very much a real phenomenon, I have noticed it even in New England. I am as big of a weenie as anyone and love the snow but I can’t ignore the reality that it is more difficult to get snow and cold than it used to be. It seems like marginal patterns that would have worked even 10 years ago don’t work anymore. Global warming is very much a factor, and it is becoming even more of a factor in recent years as the warming of our planet accelerates. 

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10 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

March 18-21 ,1958 had a weak ass 1022 -1026 HP and managed 1-3 ' feet totals.  March will always be my favorite winter month for shear potential.  And my favorite all time storm occurred this month 1993 and my birthday is in March :D

I always use March '93 as the benchmark for my end of winter. After that, I'm in full spring mode.

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7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EPS is quiet through the end of next work week, it will be interesting to see if there is one last bout of wintry weather to track as we go into the last two weeks of March, but I will be cleaning out my garden beds this week as things finally dry out.

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The potential interesting time frame would be after this. Starting next weekend and beyond.

Wouldn't shock me to have 1 more event to track. 

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14 minutes ago, mappy said:

I'm ready for the 60s/70s being advertised next week. screw snow, bring warmth and spring. 

Yep...I mean we're obviously still gonna have our chill shots into April but next week is gonna be nice...CMC actually has us getting near 80 Friday

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33 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

The potential interesting time frame would be after this. Starting next weekend and beyond.

Wouldn't shock me to have 1 more event to track. 

Yea there’s no threat until after this front day 7 or so, if that front is strong enough (near lakes) it could set up the follow up wave near texas

077A9560-4C09-44F0-ADF8-F200A68538C2.png

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I was flipping through pictures and was amazed at how crazy March 2014 was.  We had March 3 with 5-6 inches with temps in the TEENS the next day.  Then about 10" on March 17 and I think it might have snowed one more time at the end of the month. 

I agree with Mappy though and this 6-10 day outlook pleases me

image.png.6c6e87f20899f7a9cb86314f67308f75.png

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4 hours ago, BlizzardNole said:

I was flipping through pictures and was amazed at how crazy March 2014 was.  We had March 3 with 5-6 inches with temps in the TEENS the next day.  Then about 10" on March 17 and I think it might have snowed one more time at the end of the month. 

I agree with Mappy though and this 6-10 day outlook pleases me

 

Should easily get our first 70 (and maybe 75 if things break right) of the year in DC!

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10 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Should easily get our first 70 (and maybe 75 if things break right) of the year in DC!

Perfect progression of temps! As much as we didn't like the outcome, the core of cold + blocking actually happening in winter with a gradual warmup entering Spring is a welcome sight. Hopefully no pesky neg NAO making its mark into April with a sudden jump to Summer as we've had in more than one recent winter. 

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2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z Para digital snow only 13 days away....

Pretty sure if the Para couldn't deliver us the digital snow in Jan and Feb in a extremely blocked pattern, then for  sure it will be wrong for about the 40th time this winter with that depiction you posted.  

All I can say is I love winter storms, but for now, Good bye winter ! Hello Spring ! 

Looking forward to rain free weather and temps near 70 degrees next week.  

My emotional state has already improved. Planning my landscaping now, and enjoying the sun and outdoors. 

 

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

End of the Euro run looks like a storm train to me with a reinforcing cold shot poised to drop se out of central Canada extraping :D. A bit of a ridge bridge showing up in the northern latitudes at 240 as well .

No sign of a ridge bridge on the mean in that timeframe but roll this forward a day or 2 and there is a decent look with ridging out west, cold pressing, and the SE ridge flattened. As I posted this morning the best potential for something wintry appears to be from around the 15th and esp beyond.. St Patty's day storm!

1615809600-rlUmiVdiERU.png

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00z GFS laughs at the 18z GFS and says 18z must have had too much to drink. 

00z GFS has 60s Wed/Thur and 70 on Friday... but then cool air returns next weekend with highs in the 40s Sat and around 50 on Sun

Week of the 15th had warm Monday... but then Tues-Fri must have a backdoor front around cause highs are mainly in the 40s and 50s.... and stays there in the super extended

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57 minutes ago, yoda said:

00z GFS laughs at the 18z GFS and says 18z must have had too much to drink. 

00z GFS has 60s Wed/Thur and 70 on Friday... but then cool air returns next weekend with highs in the 40s Sat and around 50 on Sun

Week of the 15th had warm Monday... but then Tues-Fri must have a backdoor front around cause highs are mainly in the 40s and 50s.... and stays there in the super extended

You’re doing play by play on the 300 hour gfs???

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