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March Long Range Discussion


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22 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

So  what you’re basically saying is anytime there’s a negative PNA in the month of April there’s a good chance that it’s gonna be Negative for the months of December January February

With the way the globe is pulsing right now. Very unlikely it will change between now and then. 

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14 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Eps trending colder and colder for Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Becoming more likely frozen is in the cards if we can get the sw far enough north and precip in here quickly overnight.  Guidance showing Monday overnight lows in the teens . Not a bad airmass .

Where the heck is this storm on the GFS? Lol

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22 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Eps trending colder and colder for Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Becoming more likely frozen is in the cards if we can get the sw far enough north and precip in here quickly overnight.  Guidance showing Monday overnight lows in the teens . Not a bad airmass .

What is the euro showing for canaan valley wv? Trying to time a last minute ski trip around a cold/wintry period... 

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52 minutes ago, mattskiva said:

I was in Carroll County, and I don't remember how much we got, but it was a lot.

 

It would have to track 100 miles further east for me to get excited about a redux. It had impressive WAA precip well out ahead of the low which produced around 8" of heavy wet snow here, but the actual low tracked inland, resulting in 40 degree rain after that. By the time the cold came back in the precip was done and the end result was about 3-4" of slop that froze solid.

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7 minutes ago, nj2va said:

GEFS shows 5-day 2m temp positive departures throughout the run for us.  I’m good with that.

Wow... the gefs is kind of on an island with regard to next weekend then. Looks quite colder than normal across guidance unless I’m missing something.

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22 minutes ago, chris21 said:

Wow... the gefs is kind of on an island with regard to next weekend then. Looks quite colder than normal across guidance unless I’m missing something.

That’s a 5 day I was referencing...GEFS shows slightly below for Sunday but at least in DC where our average high is now north of 50 (and average low is higher than 32), we need more than “slightly below” to get a meaningful chance at frozen.  

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35 minutes ago, Ji said:
1 hour ago, snowfan said:
Both the LR GFS and 10 day euro are void of any legit snow chances attm.

Disagree

Agree there is still a small chance for a small snow event later Wed/ overnight.  Problem is lack of cold air....will see how next weekend is looking shortly as well.  WB 6Z EURO for midweek.

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