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March Long Range Discussion


stormtracker
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WWA issued for here beginning tomorrow afternoon.  Hope I and others W and N cash in:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
803 PM EST Thu Feb 25 2021

VAZ025-026-260915-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0017.210226T2000Z-210227T1100Z/
Augusta-Rockingham-
803 PM EST Thu Feb 25 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Snow and sleet
  accumulations ranging from a coating to 1 inch below 2,000 feet
  to 2 to 4 inches above 2000 feet. Ice accumulations up to a
  tenth of an inch from freezing rain above 2,000 feet.

* WHERE...Augusta and Rockingham Counties.

* WHEN...From 3 PM Friday to 6 AM EST Saturday. Snow (mixed with
  sleet and rain in the valleys) will overspread the area between
  3 and 5 PM Friday afternoon. Precipitation will change to rain
  late Friday evening into early Saturday. However, rain will
  likely freeze on some surfaces above 2000 feet.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the evening commute.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on
steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery,
increasing your risk of a fall and injury.
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00 UT EPS mean snow fall for College Park over the next 15 days is 1", likely an inch below climatology.   To put it another way, the EPS "predicts" that 4% of a predicted 2.3" of precipitation during the next 15 days will be snow/sleet.  Pathetic but if forced to put down money I'd take the ... 

The EPS mean (median) snow/sleet for the  February 28 storm is 0.1 (0.0)"   

The same values for the March 3/4 storm are 0.4 (0.0)". 

One ensemble member shows a HECS March 10-12.  The 18+" from that storm is the main contributor to the 1" mean.  Could be fun. 

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Lol at the extreme synoptic differences between the gfs and para and cmc after day 4. Just for posterity... the cmc and the 00z ec are very close synoptically with the para in that camp as well. What’s 30 degrees and a couple inches of qpf between friends anyway. CMC with a completely different solution as well bringing cold and snow showers next weekend. 

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31 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Wow, that latest GFS run is a doozy. Three days of rain with a total amount around 6-9 inches, that would be some flooding rain.

The slow movement is on par with march 2010. It takes over 3 days to get across the eastern half of the US

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33 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

By the way, if we get a -PNA in April, that will be a big time sign for next Dec-Feb (for -PNA). 

So  what you’re basically saying is anytime there’s a negative PNA in the month of April there’s a good chance that it’s gonna be Negative for the months of December January February

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