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March 2021 Weather Discussion


CoastalWx
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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

No off like a light switch here .. but alleviating significantly. Only counted one deeper howl and flailing tree canopy gust last hour and there are moments now when it's just a light breeze -

this should be done by sun down -

It actually comes back but in diminishing waves.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Might be one of those deals where NW flow aids in cooling 850 and below vs even just east of the spine. Could also tick east some too.

Yeah for sure.  Champlain Valley cools off very quickly usually in those situations and up to the west slopes.  From what I can see it looks more like a sleet profile east of the Spine.  There's definitely a climatology norm for upslope cooling assist on the western slopes in marginal CAA situation.

It's sort of like a very mini-2011 style with low tracking through SNE/E.NNE at this junction with cold air coming in but the low level cold seems to usher in first down the Champlain Valley.  

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I expect it to "tick" east and get lighter ...both.

It's passing from it's weird correction - which causes over amped results over eastern N/A in general... - time, into it's better performance ( < D5 ) over the next couple .. few cycles.

And in tandem with that ... the models et al have routinely shallowed troughs and made them more progressive - we all know that at this point.  But, if that all ended up 1/3 or 1/2 those quantitative results, and also smeared E to be almost more of an up-slope event, I personally would not be shocked - in which case, a summit or two over performs ( probably. )

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Actually ... I had yesterday's 12z run up ...

I guess that's D3 --> 4 .. different then.   That may actually perform on whole though the usual suspects of over zealous snow total print outs apply

Agreed with both your posts.  I think a bit weaker and east.  Maybe a NAM/ICON type solution?  Though just saying those two models as more possible than ECM/GFS/GGEM reads weird.

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My road has apparently been closed all day...they’re doing something just down from me. Lisa heard a loud crack and tree fall in that direction this morning. We still have power and internet though. Maybe I’ll check it out later...probably gusting 45-50 right now if I had proper siting. 

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50 minutes ago, dendrite said:

My road has apparently been closed all day...they’re doing something just down from me. Lisa heard a loud crack and tree fall in that direction this morning. We still have power and internet though. Maybe I’ll check it out later...probably gusting 45-50 right now if I had proper siting. 

Our email seems to be out but internet and phone are fine...  not sure if related to winds, but I doubt it

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