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March 2021 Weather Discussion


CoastalWx
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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

I didn’t see 10 other than a patch in the berks.   Not sure what we’re arguing about here....

 

 

Not sure either, you replied to me?  Its a known fact those maps suck, Look at the map again it shows 8-10” mean across SNE when in reality the models showed a 3-6” mean across SNE. 

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Telecon layout at CPC hasn't supported a regression into winter ... pretty much at all, since they began this huge AO correction 2 weeks ago.  In that time, they have been joined by the neutral neg PNA and the neutral positive NAO.  What we have not seen to go along with, is operational runs pretty much at any point being as warm as all that suggests they could, if not 'should,' be.

The EPS may not agree... granted.  Not sure what the GEFs EPO is looking like, but I suspect it is not hugely different than the EPS. Thing is, we have seen -EPO/-PNA/-NAO in the past, and that single cold signal overwhelmed.   2005 February started that way - it won't do that nearing April ... but you know -

But, the EPS does change the landscape ...some.   Thing is, you have to keep in mind that we are on the equinox sun when all that hits.  It's a diabatic mutilation of the hemisphere and I suspect models are not really morphing the way that the reality will be morphed - ha... for lack of better way to say it. 

No one said otherwise, I know .. But I suggest it is possible we get this 'shot across the bow' spring balm this week, then we regress to normal climo.  But hey, the upshot of our normal March 20 climo is blue bombs so...  we'll see.  

Unless La Nina climo finally decides to show up to the party - Scott and I surmised ( half in snark ) that we have not seen a La Nina jack shit this year, despite some rather 1.5 like negative ENSO layouts... We're sort of expecting the cold return by conditioning maybe but there are still caution flags.. With out luck, it does just in time to ensure we Blutowski March

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Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

For weathafella 

 

Now you can see why those maps aren’t accurate at all. They’ve been 2-3x too high all year. 

FB5EB2B6-FCE9-44A2-A656-8B8D6471D30F.png

Sometimes they’re too high and sometimes low.  Their snow algorithm is weird at times.  I guess the take home is we may have some winter left.

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Just now, weathafella said:

Sometimes they’re too high and sometimes low.  Their snow algorithm is weird at times.  I guess the take home is we may have some winter left.

Yes definitely some winter left. Yes this year there is something very wrong with the algorithm on stormvista it’s been way too high all year long compared to the other vendors, I know this bc MJO posts them all the time and I scratch my head every time. 

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9 minutes ago, tamarack said:

That's more appropriate if aimed at PWM TV mets, at least when on camera.

Not thrilled at seeing the 12z GFS op for AUG showing 0.01" total thru March 23.

More of the same pattern we have been in for 45 days now basically.

I am guessing the synoptic precip and cold air will finally arrive by mid-April, just in time to be useless.

Basically in spring skiing mode now and thinking about summer. I have kinda given up on getting another nice synoptic snowstorm. Pattern is just too hostile.

Maybe some more upslope will come through next week when the temps get a little colder, not holding my breath for more than the usual inch or two. Hoping for a surprise to freshen the pack after it takes a beating this week.

This winter felt short to me, with the delayed start and apparent early end. Basically, winter was January 1 through the end of February with some pockets in December of winter-like conditions. 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He was trying to tell me on Twitter last fall that he didnt want a harsh winter bc of covid....

#fullofshit

I saw that. We went back and forth a bit in March 2018 during those damaging storms. I think as a more prominent OCM, you just can’t go out there and publicly wish for damage like Kevin does. I think it’s almost taboo, but shit.....that’s exactly why I got into it. 

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Looking at the upper levels for on the European and Canadian models it appears that the 14th-16th threat will go to our west and rain due to the northern stream digging into Montana. That is a great snow setup for Wisconsin due to how early the trough goes negative, but not here. The Canadian is similar with the southern steam hanging back, and the northern stream diving into Montana tilting the trough negative out west. If you extrapolate the navy, it is similar to the Euro and Canadian as it has the southern stream hanging back, which would give the northern stream more time to dig out west and phase, tilting the trough negative and causing the storm to Cut to our west and give Wisconsin a blizzard. The gfs is the only model that has snow here due to the streams staying separate. The upper air pattern on the euro, navy, and Canadian do not support this solution so I am going to go with the better models and lean towards a warmer and rainier solution. However,  it appears that the 20th time period looks better. During that time period the models bring the polar vortex south into central canada, which would allow for northern stream energy to drop more into the Midwest than Montana.

Even if somehow the garbage Gfs was right with the upper air pattern, that upper air pattern does not support a blizzard for the 14th-16th timeframe due to the lack of northern stream. There is no mechanism to bring cold air in, that’s a rain to Canada setup. In March purely southern stream won’t cut it.

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2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

More of the same pattern we have been in for 45 days now basically.

I am guessing the synoptic precip and cold air will finally arrive by mid-April, just in time to be useless.

Basically in spring skiing mode now and thinking about summer. I have kinda given up on getting another nice synoptic snowstorm. Pattern is just too hostile.

Maybe some more upslope will come through next week when the temps get a little colder, not holding my breath for more than the usual inch or two. Hoping for a surprise to freshen the pack after it takes a beating this week.

This winter felt short to me, with the delayed start and apparent early end. Basically, winter was January 1 through the end of February with some pockets in December of winter-like conditions. 

Nah your winter lasts until May, where I live in SE mass snow chances are long gone by mid April, but It has snowed even as late as June before up in northern New England (very unusual though). 

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